10 Day trend - Showers never too far away but a spell of hot weather likely in south 31/07/19
Clare Nasir has the details in this week's 10 Day trend.
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00:00Hello there and welcome to the 10-day trend. It's Wednesday the 31st of July.
00:04I've looked at the charts for the next 10 days and pretty much in a nutshell
00:08from today the current indications are we'd like to see some showery bursts of
00:12rain coming and going, some drier interludes as well, warm or even warm air
00:17coming up from the south. The bigger picture over the next few days, this low
00:21pressure which has brought the thunderstorms clears off the scene
00:23through the next 24 hours, then a ridge comes up from the south and that means a
00:26quieter day come Friday and some warmth slowly moving in as well. The system is
00:32quite slack so if you catch a shower it could last a while but many areas will
00:36be dry. Now through Thursday you can see those showers just still clipping the
00:40eastern side of England and some showers developing inland could be heavy across
00:45Scotland. Temperatures typically climbing into the 20s if not the mid-20s. The best
00:49of the weather towards the west where we will see some sunshine and that's the
00:53situation on Friday as well. Again a few showers, this is global model data so
00:59it's not representing the showers so finely but we are like to see a
01:02scattering of showers through the afternoon. One or two perhaps likely
01:06further west but even so a mostly dry scenario here and temperatures slightly
01:10higher, we should see 25 in the south, 18 or 19 across the far north of Scotland.
01:16So that's a picture on Friday. Let's just have a look at the upper level winds, the
01:21jet stream winds and this is an upper low here. So this area of low pressure
01:25and this area of winds, strong winds, jet stream winds indicates to us that we're
01:31seeing an exit here. The core winds slow down and diverge and what that means we
01:37could see enhanced rainfall through Sunday into Monday across the southwestern
01:41quadrant of the country. All in all this low stays where it is for a few days and
01:46it does mean the surface low will be with us as well. We're close by to the
01:50west of the UK so here's your low, this is surface level here. Bands of rain
01:55circulating around it and for Saturday into Sunday yes we'll continue to see a
01:59feed of those showers just moving in from the west. However subtle changes,
02:03some warmth slowly moves across from the south as well. We could see some high
02:08temperatures particularly on Sunday. Through Saturday a mostly dry start, one
02:12or two showers lurking around. You can see this is the low towards the west
02:16there. We see these bands of showers creeping in from the west. It will be a
02:20slow process. Some areas getting away with a dry day and also a sunny day.
02:25Temperatures typically 23-24 degrees Celsius but there's an increasing
02:30likelihood we will see some showers moving in from the west particularly
02:33towards the southwest and west through the day. Now come Sunday it's going to be
02:38a very warm start. These are your lows through the early hours of Sunday
02:41morning. It will be a dry start across many, maybe some mist and fog patches
02:45before bands of showers continue their passage further east. But look at this,
02:50temperatures well above average for this time of year yet again. It's going to
02:54feel quite humid as well across the country. So typical temperatures across
02:57many areas will be into the 20s if not the mid-20s and in the southeast we
03:02could see a 28 or 29. There's a good confidence for the weather as it evolves
03:07through the next week. Low pressure never too far away but it will be warm for
03:12particularly through the first part of the week. Now here are your meteorograms
03:15for Birmingham and Glasgow through the next few days into next week. This
03:20represents the maximum temperature, the lower temperature, the minimum
03:23temperature but also the upper and lower bounds, how much confidence we have in
03:28those temperatures. And as you can see for Birmingham as well as for Glasgow,
03:32the mean which is just there, even into next week we are above the average for
03:38this time of year. The air is warm, in fact exceptionally warm through Sunday
03:43into Monday for Birmingham as well as for Glasgow as well. Well above the
03:47average and that's how it hovers through into the middle part of the week. It does
03:51mean also we are likely to see some warm and quite sweaty nights. So it's not
03:55going to be cool despite the fact there is showers or rain in the forecast. Now
04:00come Monday again we're likely to see bands of showers moving across the
04:04country in between some sunshine. It's not going to be a washout but certainly
04:08we will always see those showers never too far away but some sunshine coming
04:12through as well and temperatures again very warm indeed and again rather muggy.
04:17However we look to the southwest to see where our weather's coming from and this
04:21is what I was talking about earlier. This is a pulse of quite heavy rain which
04:25actually could push up towards the southwestern quadrants of the country
04:28through Monday into Tuesday. So it's worth noting through the beginning of
04:33the working week next week we could see some heavy pulses across that part of
04:38the country. The midweek set up looks pretty much like this and this pattern
04:43we've seen again and again through the summer with a low pressure towards the
04:47west or northwest and a high just trying to push in from the south. Certainly
04:51across the continent temperatures above average. These are the anomalies so
04:55these are temperatures above what the mean should be. So two degrees for
04:59Iberia, 1.5 degrees across much of France and just above average for much
05:05of England and Wales and Ireland but towards the northwest of the country
05:09temperatures typically around average and closer to the low. So we're expecting
05:14the synoptic pattern to be similar to this with a chance as I said of some
05:19showers. So through Thursday you can see the low still sits there but the weather
05:24looks like it will wane from dry to showers. However if we head down towards
05:29the tropical Atlantic we can see some easterly waves moving in or propagating
05:35across from Africa. These are precursors to typical tropical cyclone development
05:40through the summer months and I've had a look at the National Hurricane Center's
05:44data and analysis into the weekend and looking very closely at this little
05:49system here which could develop into a tropical cyclone. If it does
05:55there's a chance it will track across and move up the eastern seaboard of the
06:01country and with that these are the probabilities of where it will be
06:05through next week and you can see it's pushing up towards the northeast. If that
06:11happens then there's a good chance that we will see low pressure further away
06:17and a ridge of high pressure toppling in and moving up towards the UK bringing
06:22with it some higher temperatures. So there's a small chance at the moment we
06:25could see this set up. It's interesting to look at that there are other
06:29scenarios but all in all at the moment yes we'd like to see some warmer air.
06:33Obviously keep you posted here at the Met Office. This is well eight or nine
06:38days ahead but for the time being this is what you should expect as we head
06:43through the weekend and into the first part of next week. It's warm or very warm
06:47perhaps even hot for the southeast for a time. Showers never too far away but we
06:51will see some sunshine as well. That's all from me, I'll see you later.