10 Day trend – Storm Ciara and beyond 05/02/20
How will Storm Ciara affect the UK this weekend and could there be further spells of wind and rain next week? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Many places over the next few days
00:05will enjoy a lull in the unsettled weather, but it's not going to last. During the weekend,
00:10it turns very windy. Storm Kira likely to bring disruptive or damaging winds. And then
00:16through next week, the weather remains highly volatile. Colder conditions at the start of
00:21next week will bring blustery showers and snow over the hills of the UK. And then by
00:26the end of the week, the potential for at least one more very windy spell. Couldn't
00:31be further from what we're seeing over the next couple of days. High pressure in charge,
00:36calm winds and relatively dry conditions across the country. Frosty, foggy mornings, Thursday
00:42morning and Friday morning. Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, things are starting
00:47to develop as bitterly cold Arctic air over Canada meets much more humid air further south.
00:54In fact, at around 5,000 feet, there's a temperature contrast of 30 degrees over the
00:59space of, well, what is effectively the length of the British Isles. And that is helping
01:05to fuel a very powerful jet stream, this fast flowing ribbon of air at around 30,000 feet.
01:11You can see the core of the strongest winds indicated by the dark colours there emanating
01:15out of Canada. And in this area, well, there's the chance that winds will exceed 260 miles
01:22per hour. That jet core helps to pick up and spin up deep areas of low pressure. You
01:29can see numerous lows there, but our focus for the weekend is Storm Kira on Friday, still
01:34coming out of Canada. But watch how quickly over the space of just 24 hours or so, Kira
01:38deepens and rapidly starts to approach the UK. By Saturday night and Sunday, Kira is
01:47crossing northern parts of Britain, tight isobars across the UK. And so the uncertainty
01:52in the week during the weekend isn't whether or not it will be windy. It will be windy
01:57and wet and unsettled. It's the exact focus where we're going to see the strongest winds.
02:04And that all depends on the precise interaction of Kira with the jet stream. We'll have more
02:09details over the next couple of days, of course. But for now, much of the UK is under a yellow
02:15warning. In fact, all of the UK is under a yellow warning. It all starts to change on
02:19Friday. High pressure drifts away. This cold front, not particularly unsettled feature.
02:25It brings a spell of rain, but it opens the door to westerlies. And from that point onwards,
02:31the weather is very unsettled. Saturday starts off relatively dry and calm, but quite quickly
02:36it turns wet and windy to the west. Rain of some importance as well through the weekend.
02:42It turns wet across western parts of Britain through Saturday. Some particularly wet weather,
02:4850 millimetres plus over western hills. Several bouts of rain moving through Saturday night
02:54as well as Sunday, brought in by these strong winds and followed by showers later Sunday.
03:00So some wet weather around Saturday night and Sunday. But the main focus are the winds.
03:06Like I say, the UK covered by a yellow wind warning. And it looks likely that northern
03:10and western parts of Britain will see gales developing on Saturday night and into Sunday.
03:15But during Sunday itself, well, there's the risk of gales widely across the UK, not just
03:20around coasts, but inland as well. The exact details in terms of where is likely to see
03:26the strongest winds and when. We'll provide further details, of course, over the next
03:31couple of days. On Sunday, it looks possible that there'll be a swathe of especially strong
03:36winds across Northern Ireland into parts of Scotland. But for now, suffice to say damaging
03:42gusts could occur anywhere. And there's risk in some places of gusts in excess of 80 miles
03:47per hour. So a lot to be wary of for the weekend. As storm Cura arrives, there's the risk of
03:54damaging winds. There's the risk of coastal impacts with large waves and overtopping on
03:59the coasts. And there's also the risk of power disruption and transport disruption where
04:04we see the strongest of the winds. Now, following storm Cura, the jet stream is sitting to the
04:11south of the UK by this stage and the core of the jet stream there, very close to the
04:15UK. And we're likely to see cold air dragged across the UK as Cura moves away. It's going
04:23to feel cold in the strong winds. In fact, on Monday, it will still be really quite windy
04:28with particularly strong gusts around these showers. A case of bright spells and showers
04:34really through Monday and Tuesday. And because of the cold air, these showers will be wintry
04:40in nature. Now, it's likely that northern parts of Britain are going to see a mix of
04:45sleet, snow and hail showers, even at lower levels. But there's no really only piling
04:50up over hills above 200 or 300 metres. Further south, rain and hail showers more likely at
04:56lower levels with snow over the hills, say Brecon Beacons, Dartmoor and Exmoor. And the
05:02jet stream is still a key factor in our weather from the middle of next week and beyond. You
05:07can see the power of that jet stream on Tuesday and that's going to help to deepen further
05:12areas of low pressure with one area of low pressure in particular. We're keeping our
05:17eye on for Wednesday to Thursday. Could be another spell of disruptive winds. So we'll
05:24be firming up on the details of that over the next week or so as well. And well, beyond
05:30that, the weather looks like remaining very unsettled. So days 7 to 10, Wednesday, Thursday,
05:36another very windy spell, risk of gales. And because next week sees the arrival of high
05:42tides, there's the risk of some particularly rough seas and coastal impacts. Beyond that,
05:48into Friday, Saturday, it stays unsettled with the potential for further areas of low
05:53pressure arriving across the UK from that powerful jet stream. So a lot to stay tuned
05:59to over the next few days. The best way to stay up to date with all the very latest is
06:03to follow us on social media. Bye bye.