Week Ahead – a windy week ahead 06/01/20
Wind and rain feature prominently in this week’s outlook, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the details.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Any festive period cobwebs
00:05should be well and truly blown away this week. The weather summed up in two words, windy
00:10and unsettled with rain at times. All could see a very powerful jet stream flying high
00:17above the Atlantic and sending low pressure systems our way one after the other. That
00:21jet stream remains very dominant as far as our weather is concerned during the rest of
00:27the week and into the weekend. That's Friday's weather chart, but looking at Monday's weather
00:32chart, again, that powerful jet stream sending very deep areas of low pressure towards Iceland,
00:38but for the UK will also be impacted by these tightening isobars and strengthening winds
00:44as we begin the day on Tuesday. The strongest winds will be across northern Britain, and
00:50this gives you an idea of the kinds of wind gusts we can expect during the day on Tuesday.
00:54Notice the scale, the lighter colours there indicating areas of 50 to 60 mph gusts across
00:59Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England and North Wales. But in the most exposed parts,
01:04especially the north and the northwest coastal areas of Scotland, we can expect gusts of
01:0875 mph. Those kinds of wind speeds can cause disruptions to transport, and so a yellow
01:15warning in force across parts of northern Britain during Tuesday. Accompanying the strong
01:20winds will be areas of rainfall. Again, the heaviest rain across northern Britain, especially
01:25over the hills of western Scotland, where it will be persistent through much of the
01:28day. Showery outbreaks of rain further south and mostly across western parts of England
01:33as well as Wales, and again, mostly over the high ground. Not a great deal of rain, but
01:38there will be a lot of cloud cover for central and eastern areas. Now, all of this with the
01:42southwesterly breeze, it's not going to feel very pleasant. However, temperatures will
01:47be in the double figures widely, and we're looking at 12 or 13 degrees in many places.
01:52And where the wind dries out and warms out over the higher ground, well, to the lee of
01:57the hills, so for north-east Scotland, north Wales, perhaps north parts of Devon, Cornwall,
02:02we'll see even higher temperatures, 15 or even 16 Celsius in one or two spots. So a
02:07very mild day, but perhaps not feeling particularly pleasant with the wind and the rain. Fast
02:14forward to Wednesday morning and it's a clearer, colder picture across the UK, a touch of
02:18frost in the north, and the earlier rain having cleared to start the day with blustery showers
02:24across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland and some hill snow for Scotland. Clearer skies
02:29further south, some sunshine for a time across England and Wales. However, through the day
02:33we're going to see the clouds build and a grey picture by the end of the afternoon across
02:37south Wales, southern counties of England. Double figures here, a fresher, colder feel
02:42further north compared to Tuesday. Now, it's the cloud building in the south ahead of this
02:47weather front, which is causing some uncertainty for the middle part of the week. And that's
02:52because this low comes in and it's carried and deepened by that powerful jet stream.
02:57So if you put on the jet stream there, you can see how that low is interacting with it.
03:01But the exact details of the interaction between that low and the jet stream above it and this
03:07low coming in behind is likely to influence things. It all becomes very complicated and
03:12subtle changes in the position and direction of the jet stream will have big consequences
03:16on the direction of that low pressure. And it looks likely that it will bring some rain
03:21into southern Britain, but the exact northward extent of that rainfall is currently uncertain
03:25for Wednesday night and into the start of Thursday. There is a chance that it will travel
03:29further north and interact with colder air across northern Britain and bring some hill
03:33snow to northern England and parts of Wales. But at the moment, the most likely feature
03:39of that low is that it will bring some wet weather to southern Britain and that will
03:42clear through slowly for the start of Thursday. So there's the chance of some hill snow further
03:48north, but the main feature is that it will be wet for Wednesday night into southern areas
03:53of the UK and windy for a time. Now, the next area of rainfall is following hot on its heels
04:00for later Thursday into Wales and the southwest and again, risk of gales associated with this.
04:05But it does skirt through and it's likely to bring the most unsettled weather to the
04:08southwest, keeping a ridge of high pressure further north across northern Britain and
04:13with clear skies here for the start of Friday. Well, it will be a frosty start, a cold start
04:18across northern parts of Britain on Friday, milder further south and early rain clears
04:23away. And with that ridge of high pressure in charge, well, Friday looks like a largely
04:28settled day across many parts of the country, but with a lot of cloud cover and slightly
04:32lower temperatures in the north, double figures in the south, but a return to wind and rain
04:37across the northwest later Friday because of this weather front moving in. Into the
04:42weekend, the weather stays unsettled and again, we've got a powerful jet stream driving deep
04:46areas of low pressure towards Iceland with northwestern parts of the UK most prone to
04:52wind and rain. It will be mild at first, but it's going to stay windy all weekend, wettest
04:59weather on Saturday in the northwest that clears through to allow perhaps after that
05:04mild start, some colder weather in for the end of Sunday. So staying highly changeable
05:10through the weekend, into the weekend, some very strong winds at times and outbreaks of
05:15rain. And of course, you can keep up to date with all the very latest by following the
05:18Met Office on social media. Have a good week. Bye bye.