Week ahead - A big change on the way 16/03/20
A big change of weather is expected by the end of this week, as Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Big changes in the weather
00:05during the upcoming week compared to the relentless westerly winds and outbreaks of rain we've
00:10seen during the last few weeks and months. It's a transition through the next few days.
00:16We keep the rain at first, especially in the north, but then it's in the north where high
00:19pressure builds from the middle of the week and it starts to dry up. Settled conditions
00:24arriving countrywide by the end of the week, but it also turns colder. Just as winter
00:31is coming to an end, we're likely to see a return to much colder conditions. Not at first
00:36of course. Across England and Wales on Tuesday it's looking reasonably warm. It could be
00:40the warmest day of the year so far. But fast forward to Saturday and you can see a marked
00:45contrast. High pressure at places low, but around that high we're going to see these
00:49blues arrive. Probably won't be as dramatic as it appears here because of course we're
00:54gaining strength in the sun and it will be largely sunny across the country by the weekend.
01:00It will just feel cold in that easterly wind. Back to Tuesday then and it's a chilly start
01:06for the far north of Scotland. But elsewhere, weather fronts are moving back in and they
01:12will bring cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain. A few showers for northern and western Scotland
01:17first thing Tuesday, perhaps some snow over the higher ground. But then it turns more
01:21widely wet for northern Ireland, much of Scotland by the afternoon and into the far north of
01:25England. Drips and drabs of rain for parts of Wales and western England. A lot of cloud
01:29cover here compared to Monday. But some sunny spells remaining for say London and southern
01:35and southeastern parts of England. However, it is mild across England and Wales. Drawing
01:41up this mild air from the south west, 14, 15, perhaps even 16, 17 in some favoured spots
01:47north east Wales into south Yorkshire, parts of the midlands. South west England given
01:52enough sunshine. But a different story for Scotland and northern Ireland. Here it's cold,
01:57it's wet, snow over hills and there's a strong wind blowing through the Irish Sea and up
02:02the Solway Firth. Tuesday night we're going to see these weather fronts clear through,
02:07turning clearer for Scotland and northern Ireland. But cloudy conditions for England
02:11and Wales and a few outbreaks of rain as well. The rain not quite as heavy as we can
02:16expect across Scotland and northern Ireland. But nevertheless, a damp start to the day
02:20on Wednesday across much of England and Wales. The rain gradually becomes confined to southern
02:24counties by Wednesday afternoon. Brighter skies elsewhere, some sunshine but blustery
02:30showers northern and western Scotland. Gales around exposed coasts and some snow over the
02:34higher ground. Perhaps some sleet and hail at lower levels. It will feel cold across
02:39northern parts of the country and certainly temperatures dropping away elsewhere. Not
02:42as warm as Tuesday, 11 to 13 degrees. This weather front though, it's a bit of a trouble
02:49maker. It's going to lurk in the channel through much of Thursday and it's likely to just nudge
02:54a bit of extra cloud and some rain back into the south west for Thursday itself. A drizzly
02:59grey sort of day for south west England, perhaps other southern counties of England as well.
03:04Brighter skies north of the M4 generally, some sunshine but further showers in the far north
03:11and north western. Temperatures continue to drop away day by day, talking about 7 to 9 degrees
03:17in the north, more like 9 to 11 further south. Certainly feeling cold in the wind for northern
03:24and western Scotland. High pressures trying to elbow in for Thursday night and into Friday,
03:29but by this stage there's a lot of uncertainty about the behaviour of this weather front. We've
03:34just can't get rid of it. Now, different computer models are saying different things
03:38about the position of this weather front for Friday itself. Most of the models keep it
03:43away from the UK, but some of them push it back into southern counties of England. So
03:48the most likely outcome for Friday is that it's a frosty start and there'll be plenty
03:53of sunshine, a bit more cloud coming into eastern counties of Scotland, eastern parts
03:58of England as well, perhaps a few showers and again these will be rain or hail at lower
04:03levels, perhaps some snow over the hills. However, if that minority of computer models
04:09are correct, and there's a 20% chance that they are, then we'll see outbreaks of rain
04:15returning into southern counties of England and south Wales, but that's a minority outcome.
04:20It looks more likely that widely it'll be dry and bright. It's just something we've
04:24got to keep an eye on for the end of the week. Whatever happens, that high pressure is here
04:29to stay for the weekend and even if we do keep some rain in the far south, that's out
04:33of the way by Saturday and for most of the country, that high pressure means that it's
04:38dry, it's bright and there's a lot of fine weather. There'll still be some showers coming
04:44into north sea counties, but otherwise, for many places, plenty of sunny spells through
04:49the weekend, feeling pleasant in the sunshine, but feeling cold in that east wind. Certainly
04:55frosty conditions returning by night by the end of the week. You can keep up to date,
05:00of course, as always, by following us on social media. Bye bye.