Week Ahead – Very mild and, for some, very wet 25/10/21
Strong southwesterlies will bring very mild and, in some places, very wet weather this week. Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the Week Ahead forecast.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Strong winds from the
00:05south-west will dominate the weather across the UK this week. That means it will be very
00:10mild, particularly by night, but in some places it will also be very wet, especially towards
00:17the north-west of England, north Wales, parts of western Scotland. Having said that, it's
00:22going to be cold and dry to start the day in the south-east with some sunshine first
00:27morning, but here comes that south-westerly airflow, pushing a lot of cloud in from the
00:31Atlantic, pushing a spell of rain across northern parts of the UK first thing. Then it does
00:36dry up and brighten up in many places, but the rain stays persistent in the north-west
00:40of Scotland, some small amounts elsewhere. A lot of cloud cover, some breaks developing,
00:46some brighter spells, but this strong wind strengthening through the day, bouncing over
00:51the hills of the north to give some keen gusts across north-east England, south-east Scotland,
00:56but it's also reaching gale force by the evening for exposed parts of northern and
01:00western Scotland. So wet and windy in the north-west, 13 Celsius here, brighter but
01:05breezy further south, and mild, 16 or 17 Celsius. That mild airflow coming all the way from
01:13the subtropics, it's with us for the next few days at least, but it also contains a
01:17lot of moisture and a weather front which has waves in it, these ripples that provide
01:23a boost in the rain but also slow down the clearance of that front, so it just keeps
01:26pushing north through the next few days, bringing those more prolonged and heavier outbreaks
01:31of rain to north-western parts of the UK in particular. Having said that, it is going
01:36to be very mild. These are the temperatures by dawn on Wednesday, so Tuesday night, temperatures
01:42not falling much below 12 to 15 Celsius across the country. A grey start though for many,
01:48and a wet start. The rain in the north-west of Scotland having sunk into northern England
01:53and parts of north Wales overnight, it persists here through the day, and it looks likely
01:58that south-west Scotland could see as much as 60 millimetres in places at risk of flooding
02:04here, but more especially Cumbria will see those rainfall totals throughout Wednesday
02:10and the early part of Thursday really mount up. We're looking at 80 millimetres widely
02:14across Cumbria, 140 millimetres over some hills, and in one or two spots, 200 millimetres
02:19of rainfall, so risk of flooding from that rainfall warning in force. Brighter skies
02:25meanwhile for the north-west of Scotland, some showers here. Northern Ireland's seeing
02:28rain come and go, particularly later on, but further south across much of the rest of Wales
02:33and much of the rest of England, brighter spells. We've still got that strong wind,
02:37but it's coming from the south-west, so 18 Celsius possible in the south-east, a bit
02:41cooler there, where we've got some brighter weather in the north-west of Scotland. Actually,
02:46much of Scotland and northern Ireland doing OK on Thursday with some bright spells, a
02:50few showers into the west of Scotland and parts of northern Ireland, beautiful sunny
02:53skies for the northern isles, but for much of western England, much of Wales as well,
02:58we'll see those outbreaks of rain push their way south, and so a wet day to come there
03:02for south-west England and south Wales in particular. Some concerns there, given the
03:07ground is fairly saturated following last week's rain, brighter still across east Anglia
03:12and the south-east with 17 Celsius once again on the cards. The weather front then pushes
03:18north once again, another one of these waves increasing the activity on it and keeping
03:24it from clearing properly across the UK, so it looks likely on Friday, although some details
03:29are uncertain at this stage in terms of the location of the heavier rain, it looks most
03:33likely that it's parts of western England and Wales where we'll see further spells of
03:37rain through the day. Drier and brighter again, east Anglia and the south-east, and again
03:42mild, and we've got those showers once more for north-west Scotland and northern Ireland
03:47with some sunshine in between, but it's in the middle where we're likely to see further
03:51heavy and persistent rain that could cause problems by Friday. As we end the week, no
03:57sign of that front making a real significant clearance, you can see a few more waves on
04:02it and really it's because it's travelling on the jet stream like this and the jet stream
04:06diving to the south of the UK and so we're right in the development zone of this jet
04:11stream and that is of concern for the weekend because any one of these weather fronts could
04:16develop into an area of low pressure during Saturday and Sunday and bring potentially
04:21some disruptive wind and rain with it, so certainly something we'll be watching closely
04:26over the next few days and we'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office, you
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