Week Ahead – A cold start but will it last? 27/01/20
The new week starts with a spell of wintry weather – relatively rare in the UK so far this winter – but how long will it last? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the forecast for the week ahead.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the upcoming week.
00:05So far this winter, wintry weather has been in relatively short supply across the UK.
00:10But we will get a brief wintry spell at the start of this week.
00:14It is very brief.
00:16It then turns much milder from the middle of the week.
00:19And throughout the week, well, we're expecting very changeable weather, low pressure instead
00:25of high pressure now close to the UK at low pressure, bringing a succession of all sorts
00:31of different types of Atlantic weather during the week ahead.
00:34This is Tuesday's weather chart.
00:36But if we fast forward to Friday, you can see very little difference.
00:40Low pressure still out to the west of the UK.
00:43But there is one big difference through the week.
00:45This is Friday's weather chart.
00:46And if we put on the temperatures, we can see very mild air across the UK by the end
00:51of this week.
00:52Contrast that to how we start things on Tuesday.
00:56Blues instead of oranges and greens.
00:59And that means it's going to be a cold, frosty start for many places on Tuesday.
01:04Icy patches, especially for northern Britain.
01:06A few centimetres of snow possible for the southwest moors, the Welsh mountains.
01:10More substantial snow over the mountains of northern Britain.
01:14And even the risk of snow at lower levels as we start the day for, say, the central
01:18belt, northwest Scotland.
01:21After that wintry start with the risk of icy patches, well, we'll see further showers
01:25come in from the west through the day.
01:27And again, there'll be wintry in nature, mainly over the higher ground, sleet and snow.
01:32But at lower levels, hail possible, some lively downpours.
01:35But eastern areas largely dry and bright, if on the chilly side.
01:41Temperatures lower compared to Monday, feeling especially cold in the wind.
01:46Fast forward to Wednesday and it's a widespread, again, cold start to the day.
01:51And again, a few icy patches possible.
01:54Wednesday starts off with further showers coming in from the west.
01:57And again, snow over the hills above 300 metres in the north.
02:00But the showers fade for a time into Wednesday afternoon.
02:03Plenty of sunshine in the south and the east before it turns cloudy, wet and increasingly
02:07windy for Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern parts of England as well.
02:12This is because a weather front is moving in.
02:14That weather front's going to bring more unsettled weather, but it's also going to lift the temperatures
02:19eventually.
02:20So Wednesday's the last cold start before things turn milder from the west.
02:26Here's the weather front on Wednesday, but there's also a low lurking to the northwest
02:30of the UK.
02:31Look at this low, however, to the southwest.
02:34And by this stage, there are big question marks as to how these lows deepen and move
02:41in for Thursday.
02:42And that's because of this really deep low that is going to start to introduce ripples
02:47in the jet stream and determine exactly which direction the jet stream will be pointing.
02:52So the main uncertainty is whether the jet stream will choose to deepen this low and
02:57send it across northern Britain, or whether it will deepen this low and send it across
03:01southern areas.
03:02At the moment, our money is on this low to deepen and bring a spell of wet and windy
03:07weather to northern parts of the UK.
03:10It will also bring very mild air, winds and cloud cover extensively across Britain.
03:15So Thursday's not a cold start to the day, but it is a gloomy start.
03:18A lot of cloud, a strong wind, gales around northern and western coasts of Scotland and
03:22some wet weather for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, wettest over western hills.
03:28But we mustn't forget the south, where here there's that question mark over how wet and
03:33windy it will be.
03:34At the moment, it looks like a spell of rain, breezy, yes, a lot of cloud, but there is
03:39a smaller chance, if that other low will deepen, of some more significant wind and rain.
03:44So that's certainly one to watch for Thursday.
03:47Mild everywhere, 11 to 13 Celsius.
03:49Whatever happens, we say goodbye to that low and then this troublemaker comes along.
03:53This is the one that's causing us some headaches for Thursday.
03:56It's eventually going to arrive on Friday and it's a bit more straightforward in terms
04:01of forecasting the development of this low.
04:03It's going to bring extensive wind and rain across the UK, gales around northern and western
04:07coasts again, the wettest weather for the higher ground of Scotland.
04:12All areas an unsettled start to the day, but perhaps turning brighter and a little
04:15drier into the afternoon.
04:17But again, that southwesterly wind, mild air in place across the country.
04:23Into the weekend and well, more areas of low pressure lined up, waiting to come in and
04:29bring very changeable weather across all parts of the UK.
04:32It's not going to be raining all the weekend, but it is going to be windy, especially on
04:35Saturday.
04:36We will see further bouts of rain or showers.
04:41And of course, as we head towards the weekend, you can keep up to date with all the very
04:45latest on social media.
04:46Watch out for those snow and ice warnings on Tuesday morning before it turns milder
04:51and wetter later this week.
04:53Bye bye.