This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 08/01/2023.
High pressure is here all week but it won’t be dry everywhere. Cold at first, then less colder for a time before turning colder again. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
High pressure is here all week but it won’t be dry everywhere. Cold at first, then less colder for a time before turning colder again. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello and welcome to the Met Office Week Ahead forecast. It's time for something completely
00:05 different. Having droned on about low pressure for what seems like months on end, we are
00:10 now talking about high pressure and that high pressure is here to stay for at least a week.
00:15 It's currently sitting in the North Sea. It will slowly meander across the UK over the
00:21 next few days, moving across northern parts and then later in the week sinking south into
00:27 Ireland. All the while the wind direction will change slightly and that will have an
00:32 impact on temperatures and whether we get rain or snow. But there won't be much rain
00:37 or snow because high pressure will generally be keeping things settled. That is until the
00:43 end of the week. As we go into the weekend, that high pushes to the west of the UK and
00:47 with a deepening area of low pressure moving into Scandinavia, well we are going to see
00:52 a brisk northerly airflow. A weather front comes south and after that a return to colder
00:59 conditions. I say a return because if we go back to the time of recording, you can see
01:03 that we have already got cold air across the UK, in particular across southern parts because
01:07 of an easterly wind that has brought the cold air in. And that air is cold enough for snow
01:13 to be falling. In fact, we have seen snow falling in many parts of the south and south-east
01:18 through Monday afternoon. Now, over the next few days we will actually see some milder
01:23 air going around the top of that high pressure and coming from the north-east. Now, the reds
01:28 and oranges there make it look warmer than it will actually be because this is sampling
01:34 the temperature at 5,000 feet or 1,500 metres. It is a good indicator of how the temperatures
01:41 will change but it doesn't necessarily reflect the actual temperatures at the surface which
01:45 will stay on the chilly side, only recovering to around average later in the week. But then
01:50 as that high pushes to the west and we get the northerly, the blues return and so through
01:56 the weekend turning colder once again. This time not from the east but from the north.
02:01 More on that in a moment. For the time being, as I mentioned, rewinding the clock to Tuesday
02:06 morning. We have got that cold air in place and perhaps a centimetre or so of snow in
02:12 one or two spots to the south and south-west, the odd icy patch. But generally it is dry
02:18 air that we have got moving in from the east. Certainly it is going to feel on the cold
02:23 side first thing. These are the temperatures as we wake up on Tuesday. Minus 1, minus 2
02:29 Celsius, feeling much colder than this would suggest because of the brisk east to north-east
02:34 to the wind. So a cold start, some frost and pockets of ice around but actually a bright
02:40 start for many of us. Cloudier skies towards the south and south-west and just some remaining
02:45 sleet and snow showers perhaps in the far south of Devon and south-west of Cornwall
02:49 for example. They will continue until lunchtime before disappearing. Otherwise, plenty of
02:53 sunshine breaking out across southern parts of the UK away from the south-west. West of
02:58 Scotland, Northern Ireland, north-west England also faring well as well as west Wales for
03:02 sunny spells but we will see thicker cloud into the east and north-east and some persistent
03:07 fog around the Moray Forth. So certainly going to feel cold where that persistent fog sticks
03:14 around and generally temperatures are going to be struggling through the day. At best
03:18 2 to 4 Celsius in many places and actually those temperatures are significantly below
03:23 average for the time of year. If we look at how those temperatures compare with the January
03:27 average max temperature, this map shows that widely across the UK it is 3 to 6 Celsius
03:33 below average, more than 6 Celsius below average across the south-west of England and where
03:40 we've got that persistent fog in the far north-east. Closer to average along the North Sea coast
03:46 because of the breeze coming in from the North Sea. It will be a brisk wind. It's not going
03:49 to make it feel particularly warm but it will keep temperatures above zero by the time we
03:53 start off Wednesday. So frost free here. Otherwise, a widespread frost across the UK. Temperatures
03:59 in towns and cities minus 1, minus 2 Celsius, lower than that in the countryside of course.
04:05 But actually plenty of bright skies in the south and west. We've got cloudier conditions
04:09 across north-east Scotland into the north and east of England and actually the cloud
04:14 becoming thick enough at this stage for some light drizzly showers moving in from the North
04:19 Sea and those showers will be falling as snow over the tops of the Pennines, the southern
04:24 uplands for example. Now these showers are not going to amount to much in terms of total
04:29 rainfall but it's going to feel fairly miserable where we've got the cold wind and those showers
04:35 and some low cloud coming in from the North Sea. Otherwise, plenty of crisp winter sunshine
04:41 across southern and north-western parts of the UK. Generally, temperatures are a little
04:45 higher compared with Tuesday, sixes or sevens by the afternoon. Thursday starts off frost
04:52 free where we've got the cloud cover but where we've got the clear skies, western Scotland,
04:55 Northern Ireland, some western parts of England and Wales and the south of course we'll see
04:59 a touch of frost. Otherwise, a lot of cloud and that cloud is sinking south. So, a cloudier
05:04 day for the south but sunnier skies for central and western Scotland for example. There will
05:09 be a few breaks in the cloud elsewhere. Generally though, under the cloud it's not going to
05:12 feel very pleasant. That cloud will still see some drizzly showers across some North
05:18 Sea coast. Temperatures generally six or seven Celsius, so a degree or so higher compared
05:23 with Wednesday, back towards average for the time of year, although still limited in some
05:28 spots. It's by this date, later Thursday, that the high pressure starts to sink south
05:32 into Ireland and what you can see is the winds at first are coming in around that high from
05:38 the Atlantic, so a relatively mild direction compared with the easterlies we start the
05:42 week. But this cold front is approaching and that will bring a spell of rain later on.
05:47 We start the day with plenty of clear skies for Scotland, parts of Northern England, Northern
05:51 Ireland as well, some frost and pockets of fog where those clear skies remain. Further
05:57 south it's cloudier, five to seven Celsius first thing, but it does turn much cloudier
06:03 in the north and northwest by the end of the afternoon with outbreaks of rain pushing into
06:07 Northern Scotland. The rain then sinks south later on Friday as the cold front sinks south.
06:14 Some uncertainty on the timing of this, different computer models have this position slightly
06:18 differently, but either way the front is going to progress southwards across the country
06:23 as we begin the weekend, opening the door to cold Arctic winds and those winds bringing
06:29 a return to air that will be cold enough for snow. At first we'll see, I'd say, rain, sleet
06:36 and snow showers coming in from the north, but eventually the cold rear pushes across
06:41 all parts of the country by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. And
06:46 this trend shows up nicely on this graph here. This is for Leeds, but I could have chosen
06:50 anywhere across the UK. They all show a similar trend. Now, this shows the temperature at
06:55 5,000 feet and that's because 5,000 feet is a good indicator of how the temperatures will
07:00 vary without the day to night differences. Now, the solid line shows the main run of
07:05 the European model and that shows the increase in temperatures as the wind changes later
07:10 this week and into the start of the weekend before this sudden drop back to where we started
07:15 really for the start of next week. And then that solid line remaining fairly low throughout
07:21 next week. The other dotted lines are the different ensemble members of the European
07:27 computer models. So, it's run 52 times and we can then see whether the different variations
07:33 of the model are showing similar trends and they are indeed all showing cold weather through
07:38 next week. And what's also interesting is the precipitation. So, very little signal
07:44 for precipitation, rain or snow through this week. But then we see with the solid line
07:50 there, the main run and all the different ensemble runs, the dotted lines, an increased
07:54 signal for some precipitation into next week. So, if you combine the cold air through next
07:58 week with the signal for some precipitation, then it looks like there'll be some snow around
08:04 as well. Too early to give details on that. We will, of course, keep you updated right
08:07 here at the Met Office. You can find those updates on our YouTube channel. Bye-bye.