Week Ahead 05/02/2024 – Disruptive snow for some – Met Office weather forecast UK

10 months ago

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 05/02/2024.

Throughout the upcoming week, cold air to the north will clash with warm air to the south. Where these two opposing airmasses meet, snow is increasingly likely. The precise location of this snow is currently uncertain, as Aidan McGivern explains…

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Transcript

00:00 Hi there, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. There will be some spectacular

00:05 contrasts across the UK during the next few days. Now, most of us were in the same boat

00:11 at the weekend. We had mild air from the southwest, what we call a tropical maritime air mass

00:17 that brought a lot of cloud, temperatures in the teens in places, and it brought some

00:22 rainfall especially across the west and northwest. But colder air waits to the north and the

00:29 far north at the time of recording, that cold air bringing some snow to the far north of

00:34 Scotland, but it will try to edge further south. And this is an Arctic maritime air

00:39 mass. It's going to come increasingly from the Arctic with northerly winds bumping up

00:45 against these southwesterly winds and this really quite interesting temperature contrast

00:52 across the UK from temperatures in the teens in the far south, temperatures in the low

00:57 single figures in the far north. In between, we've got weather fronts and one weather front

01:03 in particular into Thursday will push up, again bringing a return to that mild rare

01:08 from the southwest in some places, but as it also brings a spell of rain, that rain

01:13 is likely to mix with the cold air to bring in some places the risk of disruptive snowfall

01:18 most likely across central parts of the UK whilst the far north remains in the cold air

01:24 and the far south remains in the very mild air. And it's that battleground across central

01:29 parts where we're likely to see the significant and in places disruptive snow. More on that

01:35 in a moment before eventually later in the week the cold air begins to win out most likely

01:41 into the weekend. But rewinding the clock to the time of recording and we start Tuesday

01:46 with outbreaks of rain across central parts. Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, northern

01:51 England as well as parts of north Wales seeing a wet start to the day. The rain edges south.

01:57 It's heavy and persistent over parts of Wales and northwest England for a time. The far

02:01 south stays largely dry, a lot of cloud cover, a keen southwesterly breeze bringing very

02:07 mild air. But the far north sees wintry showers, perhaps some slippery surfaces first thing

02:12 and ice warning in force until 9am. But those sleet and snow showers continue across the

02:16 north and northwest of Scotland, one or two making their way into central parts of Scotland

02:19 and it's going to feel cold with a brisk wind coming from the north and temperatures in

02:24 the mid single figures at best. But some bright weather in between and some decent sunshine

02:28 developing into the afternoon for northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England

02:32 after that damp start. Here's the resting place across central parts of the weather

02:37 front with outbreaks of rain at the end of Tuesday afternoon. But by the start of Wednesday

02:41 that's pushed south so that it's really across the far south we're going to see those outbreaks

02:47 of rain and staying mild. These are the temperatures at dawn on Wednesday, 7 or 8 Celsius in the

02:52 far south. But further north, clear skies, the cold air now prevalent across much of

02:57 the UK and across northern Ireland, northern England, Scotland a widespread frost with

03:02 temperatures a few degrees below freezing. And some of these wintry showers also affecting

03:06 the north and west of Scotland and increasingly parts of northern Ireland through the day

03:10 on Wednesday. Generally rain and sleet around the coast and snow inland perhaps and especially

03:15 over hills and those sleet and snow showers also affecting much of the west of Scotland

03:20 at times. But bright skies away from the showers across northern parts of the UK and even across

03:25 some of these central parts, northern England to the Midlands, Wales and East Anglia, some

03:30 bright spells emerging. But it will feel colder compared with Tuesday. Now in the far south

03:36 and south west we've got outbreaks of rain and here's where it gets interesting. Those

03:41 outbreaks of rain will try and push north again this weather front marking the boundary

03:46 between the Arctic weather and the tropical maritime weather and where these two air masses

03:51 meet, we're going to see a spell of snow. But the exact position of that snow currently

03:59 subject to a little bit of uncertainty and that will make a big difference of course

04:05 in this country when it comes to snow. Now we start Thursday with outbreaks of heavy

04:10 and persistent rain across south Wales, the south and south west of England could cause

04:14 some issues actually that wet weather continuing through much of the day. In the far north

04:19 really from the central belt northwards we're going to see a bright start, a widespread

04:23 frost but bright spells continuing through much of the day with some sleet and snow showers

04:29 in the far north and north west. It's in between across northern Ireland, southern Scotland,

04:34 northern England into the Midlands, parts of mid Wales where we're likely to see this

04:38 area of rain edging north through the day and mixing with the cold air to turn to snow

04:43 in places. But the precise location subject to some uncertainty at the moment. So the

04:50 far south very mild 11, 12, 13 Celsius. The far north staying cold but in between a spell

04:56 of rain, sleet and snow in places and what we reckon at the moment most likely area for

05:04 disruptive snow is within this yellow zone. We could see a centimetre or two at lower

05:10 levels, now centimetre or two at lower levels around Birmingham would of course cause issues

05:17 given it's a busy part of the UK but that's far from certain. The most likely area for

05:24 disruptive snow is for higher parts of this yellow zone. So the mountains of mid to north

05:30 Wales and northern England, 2 to 5 centimetres above 200 metres and 5 to 10 centimetres above

05:36 400 metres could affect some Trans-Pennine routes for example and cause some issues throughout

05:43 Thursday. But equally the snow could be a bit further north into southern Scotland and

05:49 northern Ireland if that weather front just edges slightly further north. Likewise it

05:54 could come a little bit further south as well. However at the moment it's this yellow zone

05:59 that is deemed the greatest risk of impacts from any falling and disruptive snowfall.

06:07 Either way that front does tend to stick around for some time into Friday. Again the north

06:13 south position of this is unclear and the next step whether this low pulls away and

06:19 allows the cold air to push south quite quickly into Friday or whether another low stalls

06:25 it and brings a return to milder air further north. Again this is subject to uncertainty

06:30 but this is the most likely scenario for now. We start Friday with a widespread frost across

06:35 northern parts of the UK, temperatures well below freezing where we've got some snow cover.

06:40 Further wintry showers into the north east of the UK but bright spells away from these

06:44 whilst further cloud and outbreaks of mostly rain will affect the far south with temperatures

06:50 here in the double figures. And you can see again significant temperature contrasts up

06:55 and down the country. So the position of weather fronts on Friday will be key to determining

07:02 the details for your specific location. But the general trend into the weekend is a bit

07:08 clearer actually compared with the details for Thursday and Friday. And that general

07:12 trend is for the mild air in the south to tend to slip away with colder air becoming

07:19 much more widespread up and down the UK. Mostly dry as higher pressure builds to the west

07:25 but always the chance with some wintry showers across the north and the east of the UK. Again

07:32 still some uncertainty about exactly how much the mild air will hang on to the south because

07:36 of course it's not too far away and that very sharp temperature contrast remains heading

07:43 into the weekend between the north and the south. So we'll keep updates right here. You

07:48 You can find those updates on YouTube, but for now, that's all from me.

07:51 Bye-bye.

07:52 [BLANK_AUDIO]

Week Ahead 05/02/2024 – Disruptive snow for some – Met Office weather forecast UK

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