Week Ahead 20/01/2025 – Calm start, lively end - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 20/01/2025. After a calmer spell things are going to get very lively. Bringing you this week’s weather is Alex Deakin.   You may also enjoy:  – Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0  – Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL  – Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt    Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1    We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.    Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

Transcript

00:00After a relatively calm spell of weather things are on the change. It's going to

00:05get much livelier by the end of this working week. Now on the face of it we're

00:10not changing a huge deal between Monday and Friday. This is the start of the

00:15working week. There's an area of low pressure sitting to the northwest of the

00:18UK. Fast forward to Friday we have an area of low pressure sitting to the

00:22northwest of the UK. But the eagle-eyed amongst you will have spotted a big

00:27difference. This low is a much more intense low. There's many more isobars

00:32across the chart telling us it's going to be very windy by Friday. What's

00:36causing this change? Well let's take a look at the even bigger picture and take

00:40a look at what's going on high in the sky where the aeroplanes fly. The jet

00:45stream is really driving this change and it's really intensifying across the

00:51United States of America. Why so? Well it's because there's cold air drifting

00:56south. Very cold Arctic air plunging across the United States at the moment.

01:01Temperatures 5, 10, 20 degrees below average and staying below freezing as

01:06far south as Texas. That cold Arctic air driving south bumping up against the

01:11warm tropical air and it's the contrast between cold and warm that really does

01:17pep up the jet stream intensifying over the next 24 to 48 hours. The winds in the

01:23core of the jet could get up to 250 miles an hour. That's a very strong jet

01:29and look what it does at the surface. It develops that area of low pressure.

01:34That's what's heading our way come the end of the week. Now there's a lot to

01:39happen there and as a result the exact track of this low, well it could be

01:43further south, it could be further north, but it's certainly going to bring us a

01:46windy spell of weather to end this working week. More on that in a second.

01:51First of all let's go back again and we'll go through the week day by day.

01:56This is how we start with this much weaker area of low pressure up to the

01:59northwest but still providing plenty of showers and a weather front springing

02:04cloud and some outbreaks of rain across parts of North Wales, northwest England

02:08during Tuesday. Some of that rain will hop over the Pennines at times as well

02:12so a bit damp and drizzly here. A few showers into the western side of

02:17Scotland. Maybe the odd one to the east as well but it should brighten up a

02:20little bit across the Moray Firth. Brighter skies for Northern Ireland too.

02:23For a good chunk of England and Wales it's another pretty drab day. Mist and fog

02:27which will be lingering in places through the day and as a result another

02:32cold one. The wind's still pretty light up and down the land at this stage which

02:35is why the mist and the low cloud isn't shifting too far and why we're

02:40struggling to see temperatures get above sixes and sevens. Temperatures will drop

02:44away where we've got the clear skies on Tuesday night so there will be a frost

02:47across southern and eastern Scotland. Low pressure still sitting to the

02:51northwest. There's one down to the southwest as well and that is

02:53influencing things slowly just nudging a little further north and it may well

02:57pep up this weather front as it crosses the eastern side of England. So we will

03:01see some rain here. First rain for a while across East Anglia and the

03:04southeast. It could be quite a damp day for places here but a drier brighter day

03:10probably for northwest England and north Wales. Some lively showers at times in

03:14western Scotland but we should again see some sunny spells across northeastern

03:19Scotland but a chilly day again. Temperatures if anything lower on

03:23Wednesday compared to Tuesday fours and fives maybe six or seven in a few

03:27locations. So it's still pretty cold at this stage still fairly light winds not

03:31too many isobars across the chart. Things are brewing out in the Atlantic as we

03:35head through into Thursday and then this weather front will mix things up a

03:40little more. Rain pushing across Northern Ireland maybe some hill snow too as it

03:44crosses then through England, Wales and Scotland. Certainly some snow on the

03:47Scottish mountains and that band of rain zips across the country followed by

03:52brighter skies and a few showers but the winds will be picking up through

03:56Thursday a breezier day but with the winds coming in from the southwest it is

04:00slowly starting to turn a little milder. Temperatures close to the average six and

04:05sevens across the north seven eight nine maybe double digits across the far

04:09southwest if it brightens up. So that is the precursor to the big change. Then as

04:16we go through into Friday and Saturday we're keeping our eyes on this area of

04:21low pressure developing thanks to the jet stream. Now it's exact track is a

04:27little open to some uncertainty but we are going to see strong winds across the

04:32UK. Now the exact position of the low will determine how strong the winds are

04:36and where we see those potentially damaging gusts of wind. Now the most

04:40likely scenario is that it heads up just to the northwest of the UK. This is the

04:45most likely setup at the moment and in that scenario we will see strong winds

04:51across Scotland and Northern Ireland. 50, 60 mile an hour, 70 perhaps 80 mile an hour

04:56on exposed coasts and hills and those kind of winds likely to cause some

05:00disruption certainly to the transport network could bring down power cables or

05:04certainly some branches. So that's the most likely setup that we do see some

05:09impacts from this area of low pressure. Another potential scenario is that the

05:14lows maybe not quite as intense but is a little further south likely to then

05:19bring winds that could cause some problems to a more widespread area to

05:26more populated parts of the UK. Remember the strongest winds likely to be on the

05:29southern flank of the low so if it's further south if it tracks further south

05:33it could bring some stronger winds across parts of England and Wales. 20%

05:37likelihood of that scenario most likely that that low heads up to the northwest

05:42that's a 60% likelihood. There is also a 20% chance the low is perhaps a little

05:47more intense but scoots further away from the northwest and in that scenario

05:52well it probably wouldn't bring too many issues to the UK. So this is something we

05:58need to keep a close eye on. It's occurring intensifying through the middle

06:02part of the week still four or five days away and we'll obviously firm up on the

06:06details over the next few days. For the time being we do have a Met Office yellow

06:11warning in place that most likely scenario those gusts of wind 60 around

06:15Coastal Hills 70 or 80 miles an hour as I said going to cause some disruption

06:19certainly to the transport network maybe some power issues as well and those kind

06:24of winds strong enough perhaps to do some structural damage and certainly to

06:27bring down a few trees. So that's something we need to keep a close eye on.

06:30It's going to be a windy day wherever you are on Friday. There's the low and it's not just the

06:35winds it's going to be bringing a spell of rain swinging across the country as

06:39well. Something a bit brighter following on behind but of course the position of

06:42these rain bands will be determined by the position of the low and it could all

06:46be a little further south or it could all be a little further north. One thing

06:49we're pretty confident in temperatures will be getting higher come the end of

06:53the week 10-11 Celsius although obviously we'll be feeling much milder with the

06:57strength of the wind. What happens after that? Well that low is still around this

07:02Friday night as it tracks to the north so likely to stay pretty gusty into

07:07Saturday and then we need to keep our eyes peeled because once the jet has

07:10invigorated there's the possibility of further low pressures coming in behind

07:15high pressure down to the south. Anyone else seeing a face in that pressure

07:20chart? If you do want to keep up to date with the forecast and we strongly

07:24recommend you do through this week best way to do that is to hit subscribe on

07:29our YouTube channel you can see the warnings for yourself of course on our

07:32app and on our website.

Week Ahead 20/01/2025 – Calm start, lively end

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