This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 19/02/2025. As Atlantic-driven weather returns during the next few days, it will turn much milder across the UK. It will also turn wetter and windier. But does this mean that winter is coming to an end? Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there and welcome to the Metal Viz 10-day trend. Is winter coming to an end? Technically
00:05yes, when you consider the definition of meteorological winter that does come to an end during this
00:1010-day period. 1st March marks the start of meteorological spring. Also, yes, it is turning
00:17less wintry, the weather turning much milder across the whole of the UK by Thursday 20th
00:24February, while above average temperatures returning as the winds switch to south-westerlies
00:28instead of the east to south-easterlies we've seen so much of. The very cold air that's
00:32been across parts of northern Europe is now being pushed southwards into south-east Europe,
00:38parts of the Middle East as well. Some significantly below average temperatures here. Likewise,
00:45on the other side of the Atlantic, some very cold air spreading across North America at
00:49the moment. That's relevant to our weather in fact because whenever we get that kind
00:54of situation where it clashes with warmer air coming up from the subtropics, it can
00:58strengthen the jet stream and that's what we're seeing during the next few days. A stronger
01:03jet stream often results in more unsettled weather, so spells of wind and rain, deep
01:08areas of low pressure heading our way, tending to head between Scotland and Iceland during
01:14the next few days. Look how tightly packed the ice bars are by Sunday. Expect it to become
01:19increasingly windy. Those winds though coming from the south-west rather than the south-east,
01:23meaning it will be milder, but don't expect an early start to spring-like weather because
01:28these kinds of systems are going to make it feel more like autumn I suspect over the next
01:33few days. Very unsettled. Let's put some details on that and we start off Thursday pretty much
01:39frost-free across the country. A marked change certainly for eastern and northern parts of
01:44the country. We've already seen the mild air at the time of recording push into the south-west.
01:48By the start of Thursday it's across the whole of the country. These are the temperatures
01:52first thing. But it's not going to be particularly settled as we begin things. It's going to
01:57be windy. That wind bringing in spells of rain. Always wettest towards the west. Some
02:02heavy bursts here and there. Less rainy towards the east but still a lot of cloud. So gloomy
02:08start to the day. And then you can see through Thursday those spells of rain crossing the
02:12country. Some heavy bursts for a time. But by the middle of the afternoon actually there
02:17will be some brighter weather emerging, particularly across northern and western parts of the country,
02:21albeit with further showers coming along and further gusty winds. These are the kinds
02:26of maximum temperatures we're expecting on Thursday. Well above average for the time
02:30of year. 13-14 Celsius widely but in one or two spots, for example down towards the south-west
02:36and perhaps parts of northern Scotland, 14 or 15 Celsius possible. And then as we go
02:44into Thursday night we do get a clearer and drier interlude at first. However you can
02:49see further mixed weather coming in from the west by the end of the night. Strengthening
02:54winds, spells of wet weather and that rain particularly heavy across western hills by
03:00the start of Friday. So by the end of the night it's once again unsettled and potentially
03:06a very wet commute on Friday if you do the morning commute. Now temperatures though,
03:11first thing Friday, will be in the double figures in many places. Certainly a frost-free
03:15start up and down the country because of this Atlantic weather returning. However I
03:21think wind will be a concern and also the wet weather through Friday will be a concern.
03:26Look at how tightly packed the isobars are, particularly in the vicinity of these weather
03:30fronts first thing. These are the fronts that are bringing the spells of wet weather into
03:34the west and this squeeze in the isobars will lead to some particularly gusty winds across
03:40western parts of the UK during Friday morning. Highest risk areas, parts of Northern Ireland,
03:45the west and south-west of Scotland, Irish Sea coast, West Wales where 55-65 mph wind
03:50gusts are possible and for parts of West Wales, south-west Scotland there's the risk of 70
03:55mph wind gusts. Those gusts peaking during the morning on Friday. Warnings are in force
04:00for wind and for rain because it's also going to be a very wet start in similar areas, basically
04:06western parts of the UK. A drier start for the Midlands, the east and south-east of England
04:10but a lot of wind and a blustery breeze. The rain does move eastwards, albeit slowly
04:15through the day. It tends to turn more showery. It stays mostly dry in the far south-east
04:20whilst the rest of the country get a bit of a soaking. It's not going to feel particularly
04:26pleasant in the wind and rain but technically temperatures are still above average. I think
04:31the warmest spot will be somewhere around Lincolnshire, perhaps Yorkshire, 15 or even
04:3516 Celsius possible on Friday afternoon. But as I say, in that wind and as the cloud thickens
04:40as these spells of rain move through, I'm not feeling spring-like by any stretch of
04:45the imagination. Here are the rain totals on Friday. This is the 24-hour total rainfall
04:52and you can see it's western hills that are particularly marked out for rain totals above
04:5725 mm. I suspect it will be around 30-40 mm across the hills of Wales, north-west England,
05:03Scotland and Northern Ireland. But the wettest spots, you can see some brighter colours here
05:08across south-west Scotland, central Scotland, well, also north Wales, perhaps wettest spots
05:14potentially seeing 70 mm of rain. So, yes, it's going to be a very soggy one on Friday.
05:21And even though we've had this long dry spell, because it's been cold and cloudy, the soils
05:26haven't evaporated much so there's still a lot of soil moisture and that means that more
05:33rain coming along over the next few days, well, it's not going to be soaked into the
05:37soil as much as you might expect following the dry spell. And as a result, we're going
05:41to see the ground increasingly wetting up and leading to impacts from rain, both on
05:45Friday and heading into the weekend and into next week. Now, the start of Saturday brings
05:51further rain pushing into the south-east. That's when the rain ends up in the south-east
05:55to early Saturday, but drier elsewhere with some clear spells. And actually, Saturday
06:01is looking like the more settled day of the weekend if you're away from the south-east
06:06where there's the potential for that rain to cling on until the afternoon. Elsewhere
06:10across the country, it's much brighter. There will be some sunny spells. Out of the wind,
06:15fairly pleasant, I suspect, but further showers as well in the west, particularly the north-west,
06:20so parts of northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing some blustery
06:23showers with gusty winds. And those showers will be rattling through one after the other.
06:29Temperatures 10 to 13 Celsius, not quite as mild as Friday, but still above average for
06:35the time of year. Into Saturday night, clear spells for a brief period, but it's a repeat
06:42performance effectively into Saturday night. And Sunday, just like Thursday night into
06:47Friday, we've got the next low coming along. We've got wind and rain picking up across
06:51western parts of the country by dawn on Sunday. A dry and bright start to the day for eastern
06:57parts of the country on Sunday and feeling a little colder once again with temperatures
07:02down into the mid-single figures perhaps. But it's mild towards the west as the wind
07:06and the rain return and you can see how soggy it is across western Scotland and Northern
07:10Ireland as Sunday begins because of this area of low pressure heading up towards Iceland
07:14but bringing its weather fronts into much of north-western UK and those tightly packed
07:19isobars once again leading to the risk of gales or even severe gales in some exposed
07:25spots. The strongest winds, as you can see on this wind gust graphic, the key on the
07:30right there, affecting western Scotland, south-west Scotland, Irish seacoast, Northern
07:34Ireland through Sunday morning. But it will be blustery everywhere and those spells of
07:39rain as well moving through, pushing across Scotland, pushing into much of England and
07:45Wales as the day progresses, just avoiding the south-east and staying mostly dry there
07:51until Monday and temperatures 12 to 14 Celsius. So again, mild but I suspect not particularly
07:58feeling it because of the spells of wind and rain. You can see the difference on Sunday
08:02afternoon so if you've got outdoor plans, if you're in northern or western parts of
08:06the UK in particular, I'd plan them for Saturday because of the brighter and less wet weather
08:13expected because Sunday looks like a proper unsettled day with low pressure in charge
08:19although the south-east faring a little better on Sunday at least. The jet stream still in
08:25charge as we end the weekend. These fronts then perhaps lingering across the south and
08:29south-east into Monday. A little bit of uncertainty about that aspect of the forecast but that
08:34could lead to a soggy day across the south and south-east on Monday. Otherwise, most
08:38of the UK just sitting close to the jet stream or to the north of it and the isobars indicating
08:43that we're going to get this strong westerly influence with low pressure towards Iceland,
08:48higher pressure towards the Azores and with that westerly influence, temperatures at around
08:53average for the time of year as we start off next week and very changeable weather
08:57expected and really that's the signal for the next couple of weeks, at least for the
09:02rest of February. This shows the most likely weather patterns for each day going out to
09:06the start of March, the 4th of March there on the end and it's showing different flavours
09:11of weather effectively. The blue colours tend to represent Atlantic dominated or low pressure
09:15dominated weather and you can see it's the blues that are in charge, particularly this
09:19dark blue colour which is effectively the only weather pattern indicated for Monday,
09:24Tuesday, Wednesday. That's westerly dominated. What does that look like? Well, it looks like
09:29this. This shows a flavour of that with high pressure to the Azores, low pressure near
09:35Iceland and with this westerly dominated air stream across the UK. The map here is showing
09:43temperature anomalies compared with average and the oranges just suggest a degree or two
09:48above average for the time of year. But although this is the most likely pattern for next Tuesday
09:54and next Wednesday, 56% chance on Wednesday, this is a summary of what more than 250 computer
10:01model simulations are saying and obviously there's going to be a lot of variety from
10:05these simulations and this just captures a flavour of what most of them are saying for
10:12the middle of next week. But they're not going to look exactly like this, all of them. They'll
10:17have different variations on this theme, higher pressure perhaps a little bit closer
10:21to the south of the UK, lower pressure perhaps a bit further north or a bit further south
10:25at times as well. And I suspect that the winds won't always be exactly westerly. Sometimes
10:30through next week they'll tend to be more northwesterly bringing slightly colder, showery
10:35weather with some brighter spells and perhaps some clear spells by night so a touch of frost
10:40possible and at other times they'll be more southwesterly perhaps bringing spells of rain
10:45in from the southwest and above average temperatures. It's that kind of very mixed, very changeable
10:50weather that we're expecting through the next few days to continue into next week. And really
10:57when you look at the top three most likely weather patterns for the end of next week,
11:01so the last day of February, they're all variations on the same theme. They've all got low pressure
11:06to the northwest of the UK, high pressure to the southwest and a westerly flavour. Different
11:11colours appearing on the maps here just indicating generally above average temperatures no matter
11:16where that low and that high is. But I suspect that at times we could see some slightly colder
11:21days if the wind is more from the northwest when we get showers coming through and also
11:26a touch of frost by night. But a lot of the time temperatures will be close to if not
11:29slightly above average throughout next week. One thing I would say is that it's likely
11:35to be less unsettled next week compared with the upcoming weekend. And the reason I say
11:41that is that this is a summary from the European model. This is the average pressure anomaly
11:46throughout the upcoming week and it's showing strongly lower than normal pressure across
11:51Iceland, higher than normal pressure across the Azores. This is known as a positive North
11:55Atlantic Oscillation type of pattern when you get, well normally you'd get high pressure
12:01near the Azores and low pressure near Iceland. This is an enhanced version of that, so lower
12:05than average for Iceland, higher than average for the Azores and that means stronger than
12:09normal westerly. So, this is repeating basically what those previous maps were showing, this
12:15strong westerly influence from the European model. But not everything is suggesting that.
12:22The Met Office Longer Range Model, the GLOSSI model is suggesting higher than average pressure
12:27across a large part of the U.K. throughout the upcoming week with the lower than normal
12:32pressure further north. And I suggest this is indicating a more north shifted storm track
12:39than the other models are hinting at. Now, what do we do with this uncertainty when the
12:45Met Office model is talking about higher than normal pressure and all the other models are
12:49suggesting changeable low pressure etc. I think there will be something in between.
12:55So yes, westerlies would be favoured and changeable weather, well the words of the week with wind,
13:01rain interspersed by brighter showery interludes. But with that suggestion of higher pressure
13:08coming up from the south, I would say it's looking less unsettled, less wet and windy
13:16compared with the next few days and perhaps some drier interludes, the odd drier day or
13:22two, particularly across southern parts of the U.K. with the more changeable weather
13:27most likely affecting northern parts of the U.K. But westerlies look very likely. It's just how
13:34unsettled it will be next week is the main source of uncertainty. Looking further ahead
13:40into the start of March, day 10, and it's more of the same from these weather patterns
13:47with westerlies or northwesterlies, but just a hint there of something a bit colder at
13:53times. And for that reason, although winter, meteorological winter at least, comes to an
13:58end on the last day of February, I wouldn't necessarily rule out the end to any kind of
14:03wintry weather for this season just yet.