This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 09/10/2024.
It’s a messy weather picture with a colder spell on the way but how long will it last?
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
It’s a messy weather picture with a colder spell on the way but how long will it last?
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Snow and ice both get a mention in this week's Met Office 10-day trend.
00:05It is turning colder, but how long will the colder weather last?
00:09Let's take a look at the big picture first of all, and the jet stream,
00:12that fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere.
00:15It's kind of split into two, taking two trains of areas of low pressure.
00:20This one in particular of interest, likely to bring some damaging winds
00:24and torrential rain to parts of mainland Europe.
00:26That is the remnants of Kirk, ex-Hurricane Kirk, now Storm Kirk,
00:31heading its way and bringing some potentially very damaging conditions
00:35to parts of France, the Low Countries and Germany.
00:38There are amber and red warnings in place across Europe.
00:41But it's staying to the south of the UK.
00:43It's still impacting our weather because as it clears,
00:45it's opening the door to northerly winds, bringing much colder conditions.
00:50Low pressure has been dominating all through this week,
00:52bringing lots of heavy showers.
00:54It is scooting away as Kirk spreads northwards and clears away, too.
00:58But it's also clearing away the slightly milder air,
01:01and the cold air already in place floods down
01:03as the northerly winds set in for Thursday and Friday.
01:08So it is going to turn quite a bit colder.
01:10But for most of us, quite a bit brighter as well.
01:13Not completely dry on Thursday.
01:14There will still be a few showers around,
01:16particularly scattered across parts of the eastern.
01:18A fairly brisk wind bringing even more of a chill.
01:21These are the temperatures.
01:22Touch below average for most.
01:24Some spots staying in single figures.
01:26And when you add that wind on, particularly along these north sea coasts,
01:29this is what it will feel like.
01:31Six or seven degrees Celsius.
01:33So that's quite a change compared to what we had to start the week.
01:36So it is going to turn colder both by day and by night
01:39because the clearer skies with the winds falling light
01:42will allow temperatures to fall down to below freezing.
01:46These are the temperatures in towns and cities.
01:47Not far of freezing.
01:48Some actually hitting zero for Friday morning.
01:51And rural spots will be a few degrees below.
01:53Not quite as cold, you'll notice, across Scotland
01:56because here we've got more cloud and some showery rain moving in.
01:59That will help to keep the temperatures up.
02:00But with the colder air in place, over the mountains, yes,
02:04you can pick out a few blobs of white.
02:06On the Scottish mountains, there will be some snow in the showers.
02:09And even at lower levels as we go through the weekend,
02:12there could be a little bit of sleet and snow,
02:14particularly across Shetland.
02:16What about into the weekend then?
02:18Well, it's a messy old picture.
02:20The pressure and the jet stream kind of all over the place.
02:23Still split in two, really, the jet stream.
02:25So we still have two tracks of low-pressure systems.
02:27This one, again, bringing some wet and windy conditions
02:30to northern Spain and Portugal.
02:32And then we have a trail of weather fronts across the north
02:35bringing more cloud and showery rain as we go into the weekend.
02:38But further south, between the two streams of jet stream,
02:41we generally have higher pressure moving in.
02:44And that should bring much of the south a fine couple of days.
02:48That weather front, though, there is some doubt about exactly where it sits.
02:52So that's a bit of a question mark, particularly for Saturday.
02:54This is the spaghetti plot from the European computer model
02:59when we run it many times, what's called an ensemble.
03:02And each one of these lines is a potential position of that weather front.
03:06And considering how far ahead this is, only three days for Saturday,
03:11there's quite a spread, quite a range of where that weather front could be.
03:14It's not a particularly significant weather front,
03:16but it could bring some showers to parts of the south.
03:19Apart from that, though, with high pressure nearby,
03:21much of the south for Friday and Saturday should be dry,
03:25whereas further north we will have a lot of cloud
03:28and some showers moving through on both days.
03:31Staying fairly chilly through the course of Friday and Saturday as well,
03:34and cold enough, particularly on Saturday night,
03:37after the showers in here for some icy conditions on Sunday morning.
03:42What about Sunday, though, in the broader terms?
03:45Well, this is the European model projection for Sunday.
03:49High pressure in control, but quite a lot of cold air in place.
03:53If we compare that to the Met Office model,
03:55it doesn't really push that weather front further south.
03:58And so we've got much milder air in place for Sunday across the UK.
04:02I think the more likely scenario is the European model
04:05with the front dipping further south and introducing chillier conditions.
04:08But just showing that for the comparison,
04:11both are largely dry across much of the UK,
04:14but that difference in the air across the country.
04:17So, yes, high pressure is likely to dominate through certainly the south
04:21during the weekend, keeping things largely dry.
04:23But it could be quite a chilly old start to Sunday.
04:25And then the high starts to waddle away.
04:28So as we go into next week,
04:30we've kind of got this battle set up with a stubborn large area of high pressure
04:34somewhere over the near continent,
04:36low pressure systems trying to get in from the northwest.
04:39The jet is still in this kind of split mode,
04:42one arm of it pushing the low pressure systems up towards the northwest.
04:47There are some tropical features.
04:49This one behind me, that is Milton,
04:52currently barrelling in towards Florida.
04:54It won't be a hurricane by this stage,
04:56probably as it drifts over the other side.
04:58And it's not at this stage likely to be heading its way north,
05:01but something to keep an eye on other tropical systems further south.
05:04But for the UK, we're concentrating on what's going on with this battleground
05:08between high pressure sitting over the near continent,
05:12low pressure trying to push in.
05:14And, yeah, it's just a question of which one will win out the most.
05:18It looks like as we go through much of next week,
05:21because the low pressure is likely to bring some wet and windy conditions,
05:25high pressure generally promising dry and fine conditions.
05:28It looks like the high will dominate for the early part of next week.
05:32But how long it lasts, that's the big question mark.
05:35So with the high pressure sitting here, low pressure sitting here,
05:38that's going to generate southwesterly winds.
05:40So that will bring milder air from the Atlantic,
05:44but also over a large body of water,
05:46it's going to bring cloud and outbreaks of rain.
05:49If the high is in a slightly different position, however,
05:52I mean, it's a very similar setup with the high and the low.
05:54But if the high is a little further north,
05:56holding the low pressures a little more at bay,
05:59well, that would generate winds generally coming in from the south or southwest.
06:04So a subtle difference in that area of high pressure
06:07could mean very different flavours of weather.
06:09That would keep things largely dry.
06:11Both would lift the temperatures.
06:14Now, over recent computer model runs,
06:17there's been a bit of a change of heart.
06:19This is a European model run showing the different flavours of weather
06:23going from 0 to 100.
06:25The different coloured bars are different regimes,
06:28different types of weather.
06:30The reds marked here for the early part of next week,
06:33that's indicative of a Scandinavian high
06:36with the high pressure sitting over Scandinavia.
06:38Second scenario I showed you with the winds more coming up
06:41from the south or the southeast.
06:43The pale blues, that's more of a southwesterly trend.
06:46And if we go back from the previous couple of runs,
06:48you can see that that was more favoured a couple of days ago.
06:53for the early part of next week.
06:55But now the most likely scenario is that high is going to be closer
06:59and more dominant, but it's a kind of 50-50 shot.
07:02As we saw, there's not a lot of difference in the general pattern of weather,
07:08but it makes a subtle difference to the type of weather that we see.
07:12So the blues and the reds almost making up 50-50
07:15when we look at the multi-model combination
07:18for the early part of next week.
07:20So that's something we need to closely monitor over the next few days.
07:24But then the main thing, notice that the paler blues
07:27are the much more likely regime as we go through the second half of next week.
07:32So this setup is the most likely through the second half of next week
07:36with the high pressure just drifting a little bit further away,
07:40the lower pressure closer to the north and the west.
07:42And that means the winds will be coming up from the southwest
07:46rather than the south or the southeast.
07:48And as I said, when the winds are coming from the southwest,
07:51coming over a lot of water, that generates a lot of cloud
07:54and some outbreaks of rain, particularly in western areas.
07:57But the closer you are to the high, so the further east you are,
08:01the more likely it is that you'll keep the drier weather for longer.
08:05So that's the big question mark about next week,
08:07whether the high sits closer or further away
08:11and just how far in the wet and the windy weather comes in from the west.
08:15But generally, it's going to be milder,
08:17whether the winds are coming from the southeast or the southwest
08:19after that chillier spell through the weekend.
08:22It will turn milder as we go through next week.
08:25As always, this is the 10-Day Trend,
08:27where we're just looking at the trends of potential scenarios.
08:31If you want that day-to-day detail, do keep up to date with the forecast.
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