This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 02/04/2025.
Lots of sunny skies for the next several days but there will be variations depending on the position of the high pressure.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
Lots of sunny skies for the next several days but there will be variations depending on the position of the high pressure.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to the 10-day trend that takes us through the first week of what will be, for many schools, the Easter holidays.
00:06So will the fine and sunny weather continue? Well, in short, yes, for most places it is likely to.
00:12But as always, the devil is in the detail. And also in the upper air and what's going on with the jet stream.
00:18An arm of it way to the north of the UK, just a branch of it dipping down to the south, generating low pressures again near
00:25Iberia, more wet weather to come for Spain and Portugal over the next couple of days.
00:29And we will see just a bit of a push from the jet stream, generating an area of low pressure that just gives a glancing blow to the UK.
00:36So that changes things up on Thursday. High pressure still dominant, but that will generate a bit more cloud and even a few showers over
00:45southwest England, parts of south Wales on Thursday, perhaps pushing north towards Northern Ireland for a time through the first part of Friday morning.
00:53But apart from that little blip, generally speaking, the dry and the fine and the sunny weather will continue.
00:58The other thing to note, cloud will start to spread in once more during Friday across parts of the east coast.
01:05And with that breeze coming in from the North Sea, if it stays dull, temperatures will really struggle.
01:09But in the south, Friday is likely to see the peak of the temperatures through this week, 21, 22, might even squeak up to 23.
01:18The highest temperatures probably in around Bristol, Cardiff and up towards Gloucestershire.
01:22But quite a contrast between those numbers.
01:24Low 20s here struggling to get to double digits across northeast Scotland and staying below the breeze coming down from the north in Shetland.
01:33So big temperature contrast. But say for many, it will be a fine and a sunny day for many.
01:38The sunshine will continue into the weekend.
01:41But this breeze, well, that is the key to the feel of the weather through the weekend.
01:46High pressure continuing to dominate just about sitting to the north of the UK on Friday.
01:52It does kind of wobble and amble its way a little further south into the weekend.
01:56And that allows colder air to kind of come around that high pressure, bringing much colder conditions across central and eastern Europe.
02:04Now, we don't really tap into that very cold air, but we do see a kind of a leaking of the chillier conditions drifting across the UK.
02:11With the breeze still coming in around that high pressure and a clockwise motion, it will draw in some cooler air.
02:18So, yes, the peak of the temperature is certainly in the south on Friday.
02:21And then those temperatures will be dipping off as we go through the weekend.
02:25So feeling cooler, but temperatures just likely to get back closer to normal because those breezes coming in from the North Sea will again generate the cloud.
02:34So that cloud comes in overnight. It burns back through the day and then it comes in again as we go through Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
02:41So that'll be the feature of the weather through the weekend with the biggest uncertainty.
02:45How much of this low cloud comes inland and how long it sticks around on some of these North Sea coasts could be quite persistent across parts of eastern Scotland.
02:55Elsewhere, it may well melt away through the day, but it's going to make such a big difference because it has such an impact on those temperatures.
03:04Even further south, though, where we'll see lots and lots of sunshine, those temperatures will be down compared to Friday's values where we're getting into the low 20s.
03:13We'll be back much closer to average, dropping down a bit on Saturday and then a bit further on Sunday, probably 15, 16 at best.
03:20And these eastern coasts with the breeze from the North Sea, even if it's sunny all day, may struggle to get much above double digits.
03:27And certainly if it stays glum and gloomy with some of that hot temperatures will really start to struggle.
03:33So you probably notice that dip in temperatures through the weekend.
03:35But we should all still still stay dry.
03:38And for many, it will be a blue sky kind of weekend, too.
03:42What about into next week?
03:44Well, more on that in a second. Let's cover the full weekend in summary.
03:47Lots of sunshine, as I said, turning a little bit cooler, but only temperatures getting back to average.
03:53Just cooler compared to how it will be Thursday and Friday and that potential for that mist and low cloud half fret to stick on some eastern most coast.
04:03OK, let's look at the next week picture, because, well, not a great deal of change for Monday.
04:08High pressure still dominant, still sitting out in the North Sea.
04:12We've still got this dip in the jet stream, but it's all further west.
04:17It's away now from Spain and Portugal, things turning a bit drier here for next week and still generating this area of low pressure.
04:23But it's all shifted a little bit further westwards, which has allowed the high pressure to sit in closer to the UK.
04:31And that will continue for Monday and Tuesday, likely.
04:34So, again, the wind direction, the exact position of this high pressure will dictate the wind direction.
04:39That will be key to the feel of the day and whether we see again any more of that mist and low cloud coming into eastern counties and how the temperatures feel.
04:47But again, under that high pressure, high pressure means the air is sinking.
04:50So we are looking at not much cloud away from where it's generated by the North Sea.
04:56And those kind of weather patterns are likely to continue well into next week.
05:00This is the most likely pressure pattern for Tuesday next week, close to 40 percent, with the high pressure sitting somewhere out in the North Sea or across southern parts of Scandinavia.
05:09So still generating a bit of an easterly flow, which means that western areas are likely to see the highest temperatures.
05:16That's where the temperature anomaly is greatest.
05:18So we could well, after seeing a dip through the weekend, see those temperatures rising, certainly in western areas as we go through the first part of next week.
05:26Now, for Wednesday, the most likely pressure pattern is for the high to be sitting further west.
05:32But that's quite a big jump. If it were to be the case, then the winds coming around the high like this would would bring something a little bit cooler.
05:38However, that's not really the full picture.
05:41If you look at the probability plot, the different flavours of weather that we're likely to see a lot of red on the chart for the next few days.
05:48High pressure, as we've already discussed, dominating well into next week.
05:53These slightly lighter reds, the Scandinavian high, that's set up as we go into next week with the high sitting over southern parts of Scandinavia.
06:01But by Wednesday, this darker red is ever so slightly more dominant, which means high pressure sitting somewhere to the north of the UK.
06:10But it's only slightly big.
06:11If we look at the second most likely probability for Wednesday, then it's the same as Tuesday's with the high sitting here.
06:17And again, allowing those temperatures to lift up a little bit.
06:20So I think this is more realistic. We'll see those temperatures starting to tick up again as we go through the middle part of next week.
06:27And beyond that, well, Thursday's most likely three pressure patterns are all quite similar in the fact that they all are dominated by anticyclones, which is the same as high pressure.
06:38But again, the position of the high is key to the feel of the weather where you are.
06:44In this scenario, if the high was to the west, that would generate the winds coming down more from the north and that would bring a cooler feel.
06:50Across parts of England and Wales, if the high sitting across the south, that would generate westerly winds across the north and that would mean the eastern areas would see the highest temperatures.
07:00In this scenario, it's a continuation of the other one where high pressure sitting to the northeast and western areas would see the highest temperatures.
07:07So they're all telling us that high pressure is the most likely dominant feature, which means there's going to be a lot of dry weather, probably a lot of sunshine as well.
07:14But exactly where the high sits will dictate the wind direction, will dictate the feel of the day where you are.
07:20And it's just too early to say really to put down the details on that at this stage.
07:25We're over a week away with these slow moving weather patterns to say just 100 miles either way could make such a big difference.
07:32These are the same three, the top three most likely scenarios for Friday, April 11th.
07:38By now, the percentages have started to dip, but they're still all dominated by high pressure.
07:43And again, just the position of the high will dictate the feel of the weather depending on where you live.
07:48So what can we say about next week? Well, a lot of dry weather.
07:51It was a very dry March and that has continued into April, likely to continue up to that weekend as well.
07:58So with plenty of sunny spells as well, it is likely after things get a bit cooler through this weekend to start to see those temperatures rising once more.
08:06It could well get a bit warmer through the middle of the week, but it is very dependent on the position of the high and that wind direction,
08:14because that can also dictate where we see any cloud perhaps drifting in from the North Sea or other areas.
08:19So that's something we'll need to nail down the position of the high.
08:22And so the feel and where we see the highest temperatures, but certainly for next week, a lot of dry and sunny weather for many of us.
08:30Now, as we get towards the following weekends, if we look at the probability plot, notice the red start to disappear and the blues start to increase.
08:40Now, the blues are more typical of low pressure systems, more changeable weather coming in, and you can see they do start to stagger up.
08:49So while most of next week dominated by high pressure and the reds, a lot of dry weather,
08:53there is perhaps a signal there that we could, as we go into the weekend of the 12th, 13th of April, see something a bit more unsettled.
09:01But I just want to show you this, which is the confidence graph, which helps us determine how confident we should be in the weather forecast.
09:10Ranging from 100 percent, 1 here, down to 0 here.
09:14And the forecast going ahead of in days along the bottom.
09:18Now, the average line is this dotted line here, which, as you would expect, drops off.
09:22So in a normal predictive cycle, you'd expect the confidence in a forecast to dip as you go further ahead.
09:29And that's what this curve is dictating here.
09:31This solid line here, that's the confidence in the current forecast.
09:35And anything above that average line means we're more confident than normal.
09:39And that's what we've got, a lot of green because that line is above the average line.
09:44So we are pretty confident about high pressure next week, a lot of dry weather.
09:47But notice it drops off just at that time, Friday and into the following weekend, when we start to see a suggestion of low pressure and more mixed weather coming in.
09:57So we don't have a lot of confidence about that at this stage.
10:01So that's just something to watch. It's just an idea, perhaps, that things could change at this stage.
10:05I just want to show you this towards the end. I know this is the 10-day trend, but I thought I'd look a little bit beyond because there's quite a strong signal within this.
10:11This is the stacked probabilities that we saw earlier.
10:14But going out to 45 days, don't worry too much about the detail, but it's just showing here those blues staggering upwards.
10:22So a greater indication of low pressure, more mixed weather towards that weekend.
10:26But then they do dip. So it's just a brief rise or bump, if you like.
10:30And actually, as we go through the second half of April, the more likely are those reds again with slow moving or weather patterns.
10:37So even if we do see those weather patterns changing to something a bit wetter, it might not last all that long.
10:44Plenty going on then, even though we're dominated by high pressure and lots of sunshine.
10:47As I say, for those day to day details, please do keep up to date with the forecast, particularly if you're on Easter holidays and looking to get out and about.
10:54The best way to do that, of course, is to stay up to date with everything for the Met Office by subscribing to our YouTube channel.