This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 12/02/2025.
Our weather will change to come from the west instead of the east, but exactly when this happens is still uncertain.
Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
Our weather will change to come from the west instead of the east, but exactly when this happens is still uncertain.
Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00We've had an easterly wind across the UK through much of this week. It's brought a biting chill
00:05as well as a lot of cloud, a lot of grey skies. But are things going to change in time for
00:09next week, in time for half term for many of us? Well, let's have a look. And starting
00:14off and if you saw the deep dive with Honour on Tuesday, you'll have seen a chart similar
00:18to this. It is our probabilistic pressure trend for the next two weeks, and it shows
00:23the most likely pressure set up across the UK. The reds indicating higher pressure being
00:28most likely. And then the change to blue indicates that around the beginning part towards
00:34the middle part of next week, a change to lower pressure seems the most likely scenario.
00:39Not a guarantee, but the general trend towards lower pressure looks quite likely. And you
00:44can see as we go back in time, looking at previous model runs, there has been relatively
00:48good agreement of this transition. But exactly when it happens, that's where there's been
00:52some uncertainty. It kind of has been delayed a bit as we've gone through the last couple
00:57of days. If we look at a similar chart, but this time the zone or trend. So whether our
01:01air is coming from the west or east and the reds indicating the easterly winds, which
01:05we will stick with as we go through the end of the week, through much of the weekend and
01:09into the beginning part of next week across the bulk of the UK, really. But a westerly
01:14is then likely to develop. And there's been a bit better agreement in terms of when we're
01:19going to see that transition from an easterly to a westerly around Tuesday, Wednesday time
01:24next week looks like the most likely time. But worth bearing in mind, the most recent
01:28model runs have actually become a little bit less certain about this, gone with a kind
01:32of a neutral set up for Wednesday and Thursday. No strong sign as to whether it would be a
01:37westerly or easterly on those days. So the thing to take from this is, yes, we are likely
01:41to see a change from an easterly to a westerly from high pressure being most dominant to
01:47low pressure taking a bit more control. But exactly when it happens, how strong it's going
01:52to be, well, that's where we still need to firm up the detail. But if we look at the
01:56picture that we have across the well, across the nearby area at the moment, and while we
02:01have had high pressure over Scandinavia, that's shifted a little bit towards the southeast.
02:05But nonetheless, it is still dominating our weather and it's still bringing an easterly
02:09wind in across many parts. That easterly wind has then dragged in some pretty chilly air,
02:15not especially cold for the time of year. Other easterlies have been much colder than
02:19this, but we've talked about that in previous videos. But as you can see, cold air across
02:24many places and with a lot of cloud, particularly by day, our temperatures have been pretty
02:29suppressed. But as we go through, well, the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday, I think
02:34Thursday is going to bring a greater chance of seeing a few bright or sunny breaks compared
02:39to some recent days, particularly across northern western parts of Scotland, some breaks here
02:43and even elsewhere, a few breaks developing, perhaps away from the southwest where it's
02:47going to turn cloudier and windier as we go through the day. There will be a few showers
02:51around here or there, but nothing particularly heavy. Most places stay largely dry. As we
02:56go into Friday, we do have a system coming in from the southwest, the start of that change
03:00to something a bit more unsettled or low pressure related and that westerly coming in. And as
03:05that pushes across parts of Northern Ireland, we could see some snow, perhaps even a little
03:09bit of freezing rain pushing in and then also some wet weather feeding in across parts of
03:13the southwest. But further across more central eastern parts, it's staying dry and we're
03:18sticking with the influence of that high pressure to the east of us. And so it is going to stay
03:22quite cloudy and quite chilly still as well. That being said, if we look at our 850 hectopascal
03:28temperatures and as we go through the weekend, as this system from the southwest pushes its
03:33way northeastwards, we're also going to see the temperatures at the 850 hectopascals layer
03:38rising. So we're going to see some warmer air pushing in. Now, 850 hectopascals, that's
03:43around 1500 metres up, so not at the surface. And that's important. I'll come on to that.
03:49Well, now really, because actually if we look at our freezing levels and the freezing level
03:54is the height above sea level at which we see temperatures of around zero, so freezing,
04:00and they play an important part in whether or not we see any wintry precipitation, so
04:05sleet or snow as opposed to rain. And actually, if we look at our freezing levels across parts
04:09of Scotland, down the eastern side of England, some northern parts of England as well, we
04:14have the freezing levels around the surface. And so what this suggests is, yes, at around
04:191500 metres up, we have something a bit warmer coming in. But underneath it, closer to the
04:24surface, we have some colder air plunging through. And now that's important because
04:29it brings the risk of some freezing rain. Here's a tephigram for York on Saturday,
04:34and it shows this. Now, a tephigram is a profile through the atmosphere for a set place
04:39showing the temperature. And what we can see is this line here is our zero degree isotherm.
04:44So anything to the right of this is above freezing, anything to the left is below freezing.
04:51And yes, higher up, the temperature is below freezing, as you would expect. But as we get
04:56closer to the surface, but not especially close, it then hits this warm nose where temperatures
05:01are a little bit above freezing, and then it drops down again. So as we get close to
05:06the surface still, we then hit a layer of freezing air, so where the temperature is
05:10below freezing. What this means then, we have our snow or precipitation falling, it's likely
05:16to hit this warm nose and turn to rain. But as this rain then falls into this colder layer
05:23just before it reaches the surface, it's going to become super cooled. It's not going to
05:27freeze because it's traveling too quickly, and it doesn't have anything to freeze on
05:31until it reaches the surface. And so this is when we end up with freezing rain, it can
05:36cause some very icy conditions and could cause some problems. So I wanted to show you this
05:41just to highlight that there is the risk through this weekend and into the beginning of next
05:46week of various spells of freezing rain mixed in with some sleet and snow at times as well.
05:51That's because we have various swathes of wet weather coming in from the southwest,
05:55and there's still going to be some uncertainty as to how far northeast they get and how far
06:00any colder air ducking underneath it comes in from the east as well. A bit of uncertainty
06:06about those boundaries. So exactly where we see the rain pushing through and where we
06:10see some sleet, some snow, some freezing rain, a little bit uncertain still. But across parts
06:14of Scotland, down the eastern side of England, northern England, this is where we have the
06:18greatest risk of seeing some snow and some freezing rain. Worth bearing in mind that
06:22as we go through the weekend into the beginning of next week, rainfall totals will build up
06:26across some western parts. The rain doesn't look like it's going to be especially heavy.
06:31There's not a great deal of forcing in it at the moment. And so, well, it's just the
06:36fact that it's going to be quite persistent. That could cause some problems. So we could
06:39see some relatively high totals when we look at the two to three day period through Saturday
06:44to Monday in terms of snowfall amounts. And yes, this could cause a little bit of disruption.
06:49It doesn't look especially problematic at the moment, but any snow, any freezing rain
06:54can cause some issues. So we may need to issue some warnings for these nearer the time. Now,
06:58to look at the type of precipitation that we could see falling, another chart that I
07:02have here is for Harrogate as we go through the next few days. And it shows the type of
07:07precipitation. So whether it's rain, sleet or snow that we're likely to see. Now, the
07:11greens indicate that rain is most likely through Wednesday and then it's turning largely dry
07:17as we go through Friday, sorry, Thursday, Friday and then into the weekend it looks
07:21a bit wetter. It could be a wintry mix. So there could be some rain, could be some snow
07:26indicated by the blues. And the thing that I wanted to highlight is the fact that there
07:29are some orangey reds which go with the idea of some freezing drizzle, some freezing rain
07:33perhaps as we go into the beginning of next week. So Saturday, Sunday, Monday, all of
07:37these days could bring some freezing rain or drizzle to some places. So that's just
07:42something to keep in mind. But looking further ahead and as we go through next week, let's
07:48look at the most likely setups because it's quite important in terms of when we're going
07:53to see this transition from what we have currently to something a bit more zonal coming in from
07:58the West and a bit more low pressure related. And if we look at the most likely setup for
08:04next Tuesday, and it goes with the idea of high pressure somewhere towards the east of
08:07us near Scandinavia, but also low pressure getting closer towards us. And so this would
08:12lead to quite a southerly flow. And so we may start to see our temperatures lifting
08:16a little bit and we may start to see something a bit more unsettled coming in from the West.
08:21Meanwhile, towards the east, you have a greater chance of staying that little bit drier. If
08:26we do get systems coming through, I would expect the east to see some rain at times,
08:30but it's always going to be wettest towards western areas. And actually, if we run through
08:34next week, this most likely setup is the most likely setup for every date next week. So
08:40sticking with the idea that high pressure somewhere towards the east, low pressure somewhere
08:43towards the West, and then we're sandwiched in between. And exactly where the boundary
08:47is, well, that's where the question mark is. And that will play a pivotal role in the weather
08:52that we can expect as we go through next week. We can see that if we actually look at the
08:56second most likely setup for next week. And actually, starting off on Tuesday and even
09:01Wednesday, it's relatively similar. The high pressure is actually slightly closer towards
09:05us. So that would allow for maybe the colder weather that we have at the moment, like the
09:10cloudy cold weather that we've got used to through this week could return a bit and push
09:14in from the east with the low pressure a bit further out towards the West. So less of an
09:18influence of that. But as we go further ahead through next week, by Thursday, the second
09:23most likely setup is for low pressure to be more dominant. It's towards the northwest
09:28of the UK, not especially close, but this could bring something markedly wetter, windier
09:32and milder as we go towards the back end of next week. Now, obviously, this isn't the
09:36most likely setup, but nonetheless, there is a reasonable chance that we could see something
09:41more unsettled arriving as we go through the back end of next week through Friday, Saturday.
09:46The second most likely setups are the same as on Thursday. Another way of looking at
09:50this is this chart from ECMWF, while our postage stamps showing various members from ECMWF,
09:57next Friday, and they kind of go with that same idea that there is uncertainty as to
10:03exactly what's going to happen. And if I just pick a few to take as an example, if we look
10:08at Member 4, this goes with the idea that we have that milder air coming in and pushing
10:12its way across the UK and a bit further on. And this would lead to something a bit more
10:16unsettled, definitely more unsettled than we have at the moment. So some wetter, perhaps
10:20windier weather, but a rise in our temperatures too. It's worth bearing in mind this is wet
10:24bowl potential temperature that this chart is showing. But Member 5 hints that the cold
10:31air towards the east of us won't retreat entirely, would still have the influence of high pressure
10:35through until next Friday. And so anything a bit milder, a bit more unsettled would kind
10:40of be confined just to western parts, eastern areas sticking with the cooler, drier, colder,
10:45drier weather that we have at the moment. Meanwhile, Member 8 goes in the other direction
10:51and as much as it keeps – well, it either keeps the cold air across us and then we don't
10:55see much coming in from the west as we go through next week or it will allow for something
11:00to come through and then actually the cold air towards the east returns as we go through
11:05the beginning or end of next week. So there's a lot to play for in exactly what's going
11:09to happen. I think we can be fairly certain that a change is likely going from the high
11:15pressure the easterly that we have at the moment to something a bit more milder, unsettled
11:19coming in from the west instead. But exactly how quickly that transition happens and how
11:24far it spreads across the UK, that's where the uncertainty is. So definitely worth staying
11:29up to date. You can do so by making sure you're subscribed to our YouTube channel. We'll keep
11:33you informed with all the details. Bye-bye.