This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 29/05/2024.
High pressure is building from the west as we head into meteorological summer. This means the weather will become more settled for a time. The transition may take until Sunday in the southeast, and by then some fronts could be pushing into the northwest, and these may continue into next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
High pressure is building from the west as we head into meteorological summer. This means the weather will become more settled for a time. The transition may take until Sunday in the southeast, and by then some fronts could be pushing into the northwest, and these may continue into next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, very good day to you. Summer is almost here and the weather is going to start to
00:04 feel a bit more summery as we head through the end of May and to the beginning of June.
00:09 Currently, the jet stream is running well across the UK and that's why there's a changeable
00:13 unsettled theme. However, as we go through the next few days, the jet stream is going
00:18 to shift its way a little bit further east and northwards and that means that we're going
00:23 to end up on the slightly more southern side of it and less influenced by it because high
00:28 pressure will be building instead and that's going to settle our weather down as we go
00:33 through the end of the week and into the weekend. That being said, because of the position of
00:37 this high and it could drift a little bit further westwards again as we go towards the
00:41 end of the weekend, we are at risk of seeing a couple of fronts maybe toppling over the
00:46 north of it and so that could bring something a little bit cloudier, wetter, a bit blustery
00:50 perhaps towards northwestern parts of the UK as we go through Sunday and into next week.
00:54 But I'll have more on that in a second. First of all though, let's look at what it's going
00:58 to do as we go through Thursday morning. So a bit of a showery picture for many areas,
01:04 some thicker clouds, some outbreaks of more persistent rain towards eastern parts, but
01:08 for many it's showers that we need to watch out for. Some of them could still be quite
01:12 heavy, perhaps the odd rumble of thunder. There will be some bright sunny spells, but
01:17 a bit of a chilly feel, a bit of a fresh feel for late May because there will be a northerly
01:21 wind and it could be quite brisk at times. And so yes, in the shelter, in any sunshine,
01:27 it should reach highs of around 18, 19, possibly 20 Celsius. So not feeling too bad, but in
01:32 the breeze, a bit of a chilly feel, like I said, as we go through the evening overnight,
01:37 most of the showers are going to clear away. So it is going to be mostly dry, perhaps holding
01:41 onto a bit more cloud and some further outbreaks towards far eastern parts, but further west,
01:46 some clearer skies could allow temperatures to dip into single figures in some more rural
01:51 spots, but many places holding up just about in double digits. As we go through Friday
01:56 itself, then yes, cloudy towards the east, outbreaks of rain continuing here. Some of
02:01 them could be a little bit on the heavy side and the onshore flow here is going to make
02:05 it feel fairly chilly, but towards the northwest here, a greater chance of seeing some decent
02:11 sunny skies, just a few showers to watch out for here and there. But most places away from
02:16 the east of England having a largely dry day, but yeah, a northwest, southeast split when
02:21 it comes to cloud amounts, generally sunnier towards the northwest. And with the sunshine
02:25 then where you catch it, it should feel relatively warm, high teens, low twenties, that kind
02:30 of thing, but under the thicker cloud and with that breeze that I mentioned towards
02:34 the southeast, it is going to feel a little cool for the last day of meteorological spring.
02:39 As we go into the start of summer and towards Saturday, we have this high pressure then
02:43 continuing to build. It's this high pressure that's going to lead to the largely fine weather
02:48 towards the west on Friday, and that's going to gradually push its way eastwards as we
02:52 go through Saturday. So most places having a fine day, still the potential for a bit
02:57 more cloud and perhaps some outbreaks of rain across southeastern parts of England, but
03:02 I'm not convinced as to how much rain we're actually going to see. But nonetheless, it
03:07 does look cloudier here, so a slower improvement to the fine weather as we go through the weekend.
03:12 But sticking with the northwest southeast split in terms of sunshine amounts, so sunnier
03:17 across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, parts of Wales and southwest England,
03:21 a bit more cloud towards the southeast. There are a few showers dotting up on the graphics
03:26 behind me, but you really have to try quite hard to get any showers to develop. So any
03:31 we do see would be pretty isolated and light and short lived, so shouldn't cause too many
03:36 problems. Temperatures, well, they are going to be around average for the time of year,
03:41 so feeling warm in any sunshine as we go through into Sunday. And like I say, the high does
03:46 drift a bit towards the west a little, and that does allow for something to try to push
03:51 its way into the northwest. So I think on Sunday it's a slight reversal in fortunes
03:55 in terms of cloud amount and where we're likely to see any rain across northwestern Scotland,
04:00 perhaps into Northern Ireland, some thicker clouds, some outbreaks of rain pushing their
04:03 way in and perhaps some blustery winds at times too. But towards the southeast, much
04:08 sunnier on Sunday than on Saturday and feeling warmer too because of the fact that there'll
04:13 be much more sunshine, much more blue skies. Temperature is going to rise low 20s, 22,
04:18 23, that kind of thing. A few degrees lower than this further north and west and feeling
04:22 fresher too because of the largely cloudy skies. Now, if we run through rainfall as
04:28 we go through the next few days, and I just wanted to show you the ECMWF probabilities
04:32 for greater than five millimetres of rain through Wednesday, yes, some heavy showers
04:36 across eastern parts of Scotland. By Thursday, the showers a bit more widespread but generally
04:41 focused towards more central eastern parts of England in particular. That's where we're
04:45 most likely to see the higher rainfall totals. If we go ahead a few more days and on Friday,
04:51 really the only chance of some major significant rain, well, major is perhaps overdoing it,
04:56 but any significant rain looks like it will be in the southeast. Elsewhere, it looks largely
05:00 dry, just one or two showers, but they should be light. By Saturday, and you remember I
05:05 mentioned the fact that whilst there was some rain showing up on the graphics, I'm not that
05:09 convinced as to how much we'll actually see in the southeast. And really, the chance of
05:14 us seeing more than five millimetres is negligible, non-existent. And so there could be a bit
05:19 of rain, but nothing particularly heavy and elsewhere looking dry. And then by Sunday,
05:23 it's really just across the far northwest of Scotland where we could see a few millimetres
05:27 of rain building up elsewhere. It looks largely dry. If we look at our temperatures and this
05:32 chart compares our forecast maximum temperatures for the next few days with the climatological
05:38 average and for Friday, it looks like it will be slightly warmer than average across parts
05:42 of Scotland, but cooler than average towards the southeast because of that thicker cloud
05:46 and the outbreaks of rain. A similar story for Saturday, sticking with that cooler theme
05:51 towards the southeast because of that cloud that I'm expecting to linger here, but warmer
05:55 towards the northwest of the UK. And then, like I say, a reversal in fortunes by Sunday.
06:01 So across many parts of England, particularly across central, southern and eastern parts,
06:05 it's going to be quite a few degrees warmer than average, whereas towards the northwest,
06:10 near normal, but a little bit fresher than it will have been earlier on in the weekend.
06:15 Let's look further ahead. And as we go through next week, this chart shows us the ECMWF pressure
06:21 anomaly and the pinky purples suggest that we're more likely to have higher than average
06:26 pressure somewhere towards the west of the UK with lower than average pressure elsewhere
06:31 across other parts of Europe. And with that, then, if we take a closer look, and this is
06:36 the most likely regime for Monday, the 3rd of June, and this also agrees with the idea
06:41 that we'd have higher pressure or high pressure to the west of the UK. And that should lead
06:46 to a largely fine picture, similar story to what we're expecting on Sunday. So most places
06:52 having a dry day. That being said, the position of this high here could still allow for some
06:57 systems to topple over the north of it. And so we could still see some outbreaks of rain
07:01 pushing into northern parts of Scotland. And whilst the general theme for next week is
07:06 high pressure somewhere towards the west of us, and that's largely going to dominate our
07:11 weather, there could still be some systems, some rain pushing through across the high.
07:15 So it doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be totally dry. But if we dart ahead a
07:20 few more days, and this is now the most likely ECMWF chart for Thursday, the 6th of June,
07:24 and it sticks with the idea of high pressure somewhere towards the west of us, but allowing
07:29 for something a bit more changeable, unsettled to push a little bit further southwards from
07:34 the north. And that's because a low pressure system could be somewhere towards the north
07:38 of us. And that's likely then to bring a bit more rain to northern parts. Again, some blustery
07:43 winds are possible, and there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where exactly any low
07:48 pressure would track. And it could come a bit further south. And so we could see more
07:52 rain pushing across other parts, although at the moment, higher pressure looks likely
07:57 to be the most dominant feature as we go through next week. Another way we can show that and
08:01 again, looking at the ECMWF greater than 5 millimetre of rain probability charts, and
08:06 you can see a chance of a bit more rain towards northwestern parts of Scotland on Monday,
08:11 similar on Tuesday. But by Tuesday, there are some greens showing up on other parts
08:16 of the UK. And so we could start to see a bit of rain pushing its way through even though
08:21 high pressure is going to be largely dominant. Then a greater spread in uncertainty as we
08:26 go through the latter part of next week, as you would expect, always looks like towards
08:30 the northwest of the UK, you have the greater chance of seeing any significant rain, but
08:34 it's a non-zero chance that we could see some rain across other parts of the UK, which is
08:39 just the thing that I wanted to highlight here. Then the last chart that I wanted to
08:44 leave you with is our meteorograms for our capital cities looking at both the maximum
08:49 and the minimum temperatures. But if we just take Edinburgh for example, and looking at
08:54 the maximum temperatures and they're a little bit above average for the time of year at
08:57 the moment. But as we go through to the end of the weekend, beginning of next week, we
09:02 start to see that cooler air coming in with something a bit more unsettled towards the
09:06 northwest of the UK. We are likely to see our temperatures dropping. There's a fairly
09:10 wide spread though, as we go towards the middle of next week. So, it's definitely no guarantee
09:15 that we're going to see that slightly cooler theme, but the general trend is for temperatures
09:19 to dip a little bit across northern parts. But now if we look further south, and this
09:23 time using then London as our go-to for the plot that we're likely to see, and something
09:29 a bit cooler then as we go through Friday into Saturday because of that thicker cloud
09:33 across parts of the southeast, then temperatures really rise a bit as we go through Sunday
09:37 and into the beginning of next week. But it's by around Wednesday time again, there's a
09:40 relatively large spread in what we can expect in terms of temperatures. It looks generally
09:45 near normal, so it might be a little bit above, might be a little bit below average, nothing
09:50 dramatic. But the fact that there's a relatively large spread just gives us some headaches
09:55 into exactly what's going to happen next week. I think the general theme for high pressure
09:59 to be somewhere nearby, somewhere towards the west of us, so a fair amount of dry weather
10:04 looks fairly certain. But the fact that there could be some weather system, some wet weather
10:09 pushing through at times also is something we need to keep an eye out for. We will of
10:12 course keep you updated throughout, so make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
10:16 Bye bye.
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