This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 03/07/2024.
After a few more days of wet and relatively cool weather, a change in our wind direction means temperatures will rise back to average for July. Whilst there may be some drier spells, there will also be further wet weather to come too.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
After a few more days of wet and relatively cool weather, a change in our wind direction means temperatures will rise back to average for July. Whilst there may be some drier spells, there will also be further wet weather to come too.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. Now, so far
00:04this summer, it has been a little disappointing, perhaps. And if you're hoping for something
00:08a bit warmer, I do have some good news coming up. If you're hoping for something a bit more
00:12settled, that may not be the case. Currently, we have an active jet stream running across
00:17the UK. In fact, it's running at about 185 miles per hour, which is pretty strong, particularly
00:23for the time of year. That's going to be driving some various weather systems as we go through
00:28the rest of the week. And with that, we do have some cooler air around, which is why
00:32temperatures are several degrees below average for the time of year at the moment. But if
00:36we look at the details for Thursday, and there's a bit of a north-south split, southern areas
00:41having a fairly decent day, lots of sunshine, temperatures just about getting into the low
00:4520s. Further north, though, plenty of showers, perhaps some longer spells of rain and some
00:49blustery winds too. As we go overnight, Thursday night into Friday, we continue to see some
00:55showery rain across northern parts. And then our attention is turning to a waving feature
01:00just to the west-southwest of us that is going to push its way eastwards as we go into Friday
01:06across southern parts in particular. Now, there is a bit of uncertainty with this feature.
01:11There often is when it comes to waving fronts. And as a result, we're not quite sure exactly
01:16where this rain is going to be sitting when it comes to Friday. It could be a bit further
01:21north. Previous model runs want the rain a little bit further north than what is showing
01:25behind me. So just bear in mind that it could be a bit wetter than this suggests across
01:29central southern parts of the UK. Further north and across Scotland, Northern Ireland,
01:34perhaps the far north of England, again, some showers and something a bit drier, perhaps
01:39brighter in between these two systems. But exactly where these boundaries are, there
01:43is some uncertainty. Still, though, worth noting temperatures a few degrees below average
01:48for the time of year, 21, perhaps 22 Celsius at best. As we go through later Friday, more
01:54wet weather across central southern parts. That system does eventually clear through
01:57as we go through overnight into Saturday, but more pulses of rain coming in behind.
02:02And all the time, it's worth noting that some of this rain could be pretty heavy at times.
02:07And then there'll be plenty of showers following in behind, particularly across northern parts
02:10as we go through Saturday itself. Because of that rain, the showers, we are likely to
02:14see rainfall totals building up a little bit. So behind me, I have our 36 hour rainfall
02:19totals from both the Met Office, ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
02:24and GFS, the American model. Now, I did mention that the graphics that I just showed you had
02:29the rain quite far south compared to previous runs. This is the previous run here, and it
02:34highlights that we could get perhaps in excess of 40 millimetres over 36 hours across some
02:39central southern parts of the UK, which is a pretty wet day. We don't have any warnings
02:45at the moment. We may need to issue some. It's just nonetheless, it could cause some
02:50problems and it is going to be fairly wet. ECMWF is a bit more widespread in terms of
02:55the rainfall and doesn't have quite the high totals across central southern parts, has
02:58some high totals instead across parts of Northern Ireland. So there is some uncertainty, but
03:02worth noting that GFS is in fairly good agreement with the Met Office model, albeit it doesn't
03:07have quite as high totals, but that's what you would expect because its resolution isn't
03:12as high across the UK. Looking further ahead, though, and on Saturday, like I said, some
03:17further showers in the north, many of those dying out overnight before the showers develop
03:21again quite widely on Sunday. Some of them heavy, could even be thundery at times. Then
03:25another system comes up from the south-southwest as we go into the beginning of next week.
03:30So Monday does look like it is going to be a fairly wet day for many of us. The other
03:34thing, though, to draw your attention to on Monday is this area of high pressure out
03:39towards Scandinavia. And that means, remember, our winds go around an area of high pressure
03:45in a clockwise direction. We're going to be drawing in our air from the south. And so
03:49whilst at the moment temperatures are several degrees below average for the time of year,
03:54it is likely to turn quite a bit warmer as we go through into next week. We can see that
04:00to some extent if we look at the most likely weather regimes and these probabilities in
04:05this chart behind me here. So the dark blue show that positive NAOs most likely at the
04:09moment, which goes in line with those unsettled conditions that I showed you as we go through
04:13the end of the week and into the weekend as well. But then this brighter red is showing
04:19that a Scandinavian high is most likely as we head towards the middle part of next week.
04:24Now, Scandinavian highs can influence the UK quite highly and bring some settled weather.
04:30But at the moment, it looks like that high is going to be shifted just that little bit
04:34too far to the east. So whilst we may see that warmer air coming in from the south,
04:38it doesn't necessarily mean our weather is going to turn particularly settled. But another
04:43way to look at this is if we look at our meridional trends and remember meridional is whether
04:49our air is going to be coming from the north or from the south. The greens indicate that
04:53a fairly neutral pattern is most likely as we go through the end of the week and the
04:56weekend before the reds showing early next week and through the middle part of next week.
05:01That southerly flow that I indicated is most likely, which goes in line with the fact that
05:06our temperatures are set to rise. And we can see that in a different way at the moment.
05:10If we look at our maximum temperature anomaly charts for Friday through to Monday and the
05:16blues indicating that temperatures in many places are several degrees below average for
05:20the time of year, around four or five degrees below for some of us, making it feel pretty
05:24cool considering it is now July. But if we look further ahead and if we show our meteorograms
05:31from ECMWF for our capital cities and they all show a similar trend, I'll take Belfast
05:36for example, but you can see end of the week into the weekend, those temperatures drop
05:41down both by day and by night to several degrees below average, but then they climb up. Worth
05:45noting that there's a little bit of spread, but not actually that much spread considering
05:49the lead time. And when I say they're rising, they're only really rising to around average
05:55for the time of year. Nonetheless, in July, average temperatures, they're fairly high.
05:59And so it is going to feel pretty warm or even possibly hot at times in any sunshine.
06:03But the worst, the main thing to draw from this though, is it is likely to turn significantly
06:09warmer than it has been. A good rise of around four or five degrees perhaps for some of us.
06:14Like I said though, even though the Scandinavian high is likely to bring some warmer air to
06:19us, it doesn't mean it's going to be particularly dry. In fact, if we look at the rainfall anomaly
06:25chart from ECMWF and the greens indicating that for next week from the 8th to the 15th,
06:30we are likely to have slightly wetter than average conditions, more rain coming in from
06:34the southwest because although there is a high out towards Scandinavia, it's likely
06:38to be just that little bit too far to the east to block the wet weather from coming
06:42in. We can also see that if we look at our probabilistic pressure trends and here the
06:47blues are suggesting lower pressure more likely, which is what we'd expect as we go
06:52or what is in line with everything that I've just shown you as we go through into the beginning
06:56of next week. One positive that we can draw from this, I said that the Scandinavian high
07:02might not allow for some drier weather to become more established, but it may. And there
07:09are signs that, well, the best I've got really is the fact that as we head towards the middle
07:14end of next week, the greens showing a neutral pattern. So, it just may not be quite as unsettled
07:21or it's not as likely to be as unsettled as over the end of this week and over the weekend. So,
07:27it could still be quite changeable and there is likely to be some rain at times, but
07:32there's no guarantee there could be something a bit drier. But even if that does develop,
07:36we're more likely to see the unsettled weather returning as we go towards the following weekend.
07:40So, if we do get anything a little bit dry developing, it doesn't look like it will last
07:45particularly long. And we can see that again if we look at our zonal trends. Remember,
07:48this is from west to east or east to west and we have our westerly flow bringing in those systems
07:53from the Atlantic dominating as we go through the weekend. But middle part of next week,
07:58something a little bit more neutral. So, there could be some drier interludes before then the
08:02westerlies likely to return as we go towards the end of next week. So, a fair bit of uncertainty.
08:07I'm confident that we are going to see a rise in our temperatures. Just how settled or drier it's
08:13going to be that I'm not so sure. There could still be a fair bit of rain around as we go
08:17through the next 10 days or so. It's worth also bearing in mind that at this time of year,
08:23hurricane season, obviously hurricane Beryl causing a lot of problems the other side of
08:27the Atlantic. This does increase uncertainty when you look more than seven days ahead. Bye-bye.