This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 17/07/2024.
The heat will build across southern and eastern areas to end this week, but will there be a heatwave and how long will it last?
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
The heat will build across southern and eastern areas to end this week, but will there be a heatwave and how long will it last?
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00The heat is building across southern areas to end the week, but it's unlikely to last
00:05many more than three days of this 10-day trend, as we'll then return into the cooler, more
00:10unsettled set-up we've been in so far this July.
00:14The reason we've been in that set-up, well, we've been on the northern side of the jet
00:17stream.
00:18Here's the jet stream here sweeping across the Atlantic, and over the next few days,
00:22its position will change.
00:23It becomes a more amplified pattern, diving down well to the south of the UK and taking
00:29low-pressure systems up to the north and west of the UK.
00:33But as we head towards the weekend, Sunday most likely, the return of the stronger jet
00:38core to affect the UK.
00:41So it is going to turn a bit more unsettled by Sunday and certainly cooler again.
00:46But before then, as the jet stream dives down to the south, that will allow more of a southerly
00:51wind direction, and that will allow us to tap into this warmer continental air, the
00:56warmest direction at this time of year.
00:58So the heat will build, likely peaking on Friday before a weather front sweeps across
01:03the country, introducing that fresher air from the north and west by Sunday.
01:07So a bit of a change to come through the weekend.
01:10But before then, we do have that heat to build.
01:13So it's only really going to build across south and eastern areas of England and Wales.
01:18Actually, to the north and west, weather fronts are still going to affect these areas, bringing
01:22cloudier skies and outbreaks of fairly light rain, but fairly persistent rain.
01:27So as I said, in the peak of the heat, we could see 28 degrees on Thursday.
01:31That's probably the highest temperature we'll see on Thursday.
01:33But widely across England and Wales, we'll be in the mid-20s, 25 degrees is quite likely
01:38even across southern areas of Wales and some northern areas of England as well.
01:43But where that cloud still lingers, we'll still be in the higher teens, possibly the
01:47mid-teens across the far north and west.
01:49And there is a bit of a breeze up across northwestern areas where we're closer to low-pressure systems.
01:54Very little change as we head into Friday, apart from the fact that we'll start to see
01:58that heat build even further, with strong sunshine expected quite widely across England
02:04and Wales.
02:05Very high UV levels as well.
02:07The rain will potentially be a slightly more restricted to further north and west, bringing
02:11some drier weather to parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England, much of Scotland.
02:15But there will be quite a bit more cloud around here, so potentially a little bit warmer extending
02:20further north across northeastern areas of England.
02:23And Scotland's still staying largely dry and seeing temperatures into the low-20s as
02:27well.
02:28But it will be all that bit breezier further north and west.
02:31But looking where the heat really builds, you can see that as the oranges and reds start
02:35to arrive on the map, potentially 31 degrees is possible for the greater London area, but
02:41quite widely we'll be in those high-20s across many central and southeastern areas of England
02:47as well.
02:48So, a very warm or hot day to come on Friday.
02:52And then we're into that transition period Friday into Saturday.
02:55So, the further west you are, the more likely you are to see that breakdown into the cooler
02:59weather earlier on in the day.
03:02There's potential for a bit of a thundery breakdown as well, either across parts of
03:06the southeast of England, but also where this weather front lies.
03:10We could see some very heavy bursts of rain.
03:13Becomes more and more likely as the day progresses.
03:15There is some uncertainty on the timings of this weather front, so that's something to
03:19keep up to date with over the next few days.
03:21But ahead of the weather front, we've still got that heat, highs of around 29, possibly
03:2730, if the weather front stays at bay for just long enough for that heat to build a
03:32bit more widely across eastern areas.
03:35But I think that fresher feels going to arrive as the day goes on from the west when we back
03:38down into the high teens, low 20s, a bit closer to average for this time of year and certainly
03:44fresher than it will have been for the end of this week to end the weekend.
03:51So, are we going to have a heatwave this week?
03:55Well, first of all, let's have a look at the heatwave definition.
03:59Well, the heatwave definition depends on the threshold temperature for the region.
04:04So quite widely across the UK, that's 25 degrees.
04:07But as we get closer to the Greater London region, it increases up to 28 degrees.
04:12Now, you don't just need to see your heatwave threshold temperature for one day.
04:16You need it for three days in a row for it to be defined as a heatwave.
04:22Now, the heat is most likely in the south and east and any heatwave potential is really
04:28only restricted to southeastern areas.
04:30So we need to zoom in on the south and east and we'll take 28 degrees.
04:34That's our highest threshold temperature as an example.
04:38So Thursday is when that heat is starting to build.
04:41The probability of 28 degrees, if you look very closely, you can see it's only restricted
04:47to London or the Greater London region.
04:50Outside of that, we will probably see some of those 27 degrees just where those thresholds
04:54count.
04:55So that could be our first day of the heatwave, but only really for just a couple of locations.
05:02And then Friday, well, that's when the heat is likely to peak.
05:05So there's a much greater probability of seeing that 28 degrees or more, 30 or 31 degrees
05:10is actually likely on Friday for a wider region of southern and central England into
05:16parts of South Wales as well.
05:20So again, it's this Greater London region where we could be having our second day of
05:25the heatwave by this point, but we need that third day.
05:28So by Saturday, we're starting to see that cooler air arrive from the west and that.
05:34And so the heat will slowly start to push further east as we see that cooler air arrive.
05:41And so there's the potential to see another 28 degrees, but that probability is getting
05:46lower as we head towards Saturday.
05:48So there's potentially about a 50% chance that we could see that 28 degrees for the
05:53Greater London area and some southeastern areas.
05:56So I think a few locations across the south and east could technically see a heatwave.
06:00But for most of us, it's going to be one or two days at best of that heat before the
06:05cooler air arrives for the latter part of the weekend.
06:09And that's because this weather front will be pushing its way eastwards through the country,
06:14bringing in this fresher air and this more northwesterly regime.
06:17We do see a ridge of high pressure for a time on Sunday, but then as we head into the start
06:22of next week, we return to low pressures sweeping in.
06:25And that's that jet stream returning, moving us into a more changeable setup once again.
06:32But we have got the Azores high starting to build in from the south and west.
06:37So it's not going to be all wet and windy through next week.
06:40Actually, the most likely regime for Monday and Tuesday next week is for this Azores high
06:46to extend its influence at least across southern areas of the UK.
06:51We could see eastern areas still holding on to that wetter weather clearing away from
06:55the weekend.
06:56But a ridge of higher pressure just for a couple of days, Monday and Tuesday, is looking
07:01fairly likely.
07:02However, it is a northwesterly direction, so it's unlikely to be anywhere near as hot
07:08as we're expecting to end this coming week.
07:12And then, as I said, it's going to change again.
07:15So turning more changeable.
07:16Yes, we will see ridges of higher pressure, but we could see some low pressure returning
07:20as well.
07:21We get to Thursday the 25th of July, low pressure is moving in from the north and west, returning
07:27to that more unsettled picture.
07:28So I think westerly wind directions will dominate through much of next week.
07:32We could see this high pressure building in from the south and that low pressure building
07:37in from the north.
07:38So more unsettled weather is probably most likely across northwestern areas, more settled
07:42weather sometimes across southern areas.
07:44And we'll be battling between those two setups through much of next week.
07:48Here is the map for the probabilities of the different regimes for much of next week.
07:54Blues show that lower pressure and the yellows and reds show the higher pressure.
07:58So here we are to end the weekend, Sunday the 21st of July.
08:03We've got those blues moving in, that's low pressure moving in, that cooler regime moving
08:08in by Sunday.
08:10Then Monday and Tuesday, the yellows arrive.
08:13Now this is the Azores high, so that's that south, the more settled weather arriving from
08:18the south and west.
08:19Then we move back into more unsettled weather, low pressure dominating again, more of a northwesterly
08:25coming in to end the week, Thursday and Friday.
08:28So we'll be oscillating between troughs and ridges, lows and highs through next week.
08:33So potentially some more settled spells.
08:36And as we've seen for this week, it doesn't take much for us to build the heat just for
08:41a couple of days, but it doesn't look like we've got anything particularly prolonged
08:45or summer-like on the way for the next 10 days away from the next few days.
08:51But you can find out all the details on your forecast for the next couple of days and further
08:56ahead by subscribing to our YouTube channel.
08:58See you soon.
08:59Bye bye.