This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 13/12/2023.
There’ll be a change in our weather pattern over the next 24 hours that will bring much drier weather for much of next week to central and eastern areas. However there’s another shift expected by the end of next week, for the run up to Christmas and this one brings a chance of some snow.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
There’ll be a change in our weather pattern over the next 24 hours that will bring much drier weather for much of next week to central and eastern areas. However there’s another shift expected by the end of next week, for the run up to Christmas and this one brings a chance of some snow.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, welcome to the latest 10-day trend when we'll cover the run up to Christmas and what weather we can expect.
00:06 I think the main takeaway from this will be the change in the distribution of our rainfall. So far this month
00:12 we've seen a lot of rain move in across southern and eastern areas due to the position of our jet stream.
00:18 In fact, eastern areas of England have seen nearly all of their December rainfall so far this month and we're only on the 13th.
00:26 In comparison to that, northern areas of Scotland have seen closer to 10 or 15%.
00:31 So we've seen a lot of rain moving in from the south and bringing rain to southern and eastern areas.
00:36 That's because we've had a south shifted jet.
00:38 That's this area of jet stream that has now sunk to the south as we are now seeing a change in the position of our jet stream.
00:46 We're in a bit of a transition period through today, but through the rest of the week the jet stream
00:51 really strengthens from the Atlantic and will push up to the north and west of the UK into the weekend.
00:57 And as a result, that means that the pressure pattern will change as well.
01:01 It allows high pressure to build in from the south.
01:04 It's quite a large area of high pressure and it then directs low pressure systems much
01:09 further up to the north and west towards Iceland in fact.
01:13 So with high pressure more centred closer to the UK, that means that we'll have air sinking over the UK,
01:19 which means that there'll be a lot more drier weather, particularly for more southern areas into the weekend.
01:25 The other interesting thing about that is the origin of the air that will be coming from the UK.
01:31 So as we've got this really big area of high pressure, the air, the origin of the air is coming almost up from the tropics.
01:38 So we're expecting some exceptionally warm air for the time of year across the UK into the weekend.
01:44 And that will lead to some pretty mild nights, particularly for northern areas.
01:48 But through Friday night and Saturday night.
01:51 So high pressure is dominating across southern areas, but across northern areas, it is a slightly different story at times,
01:59 as we've still got frontal systems marking the boundary between that milder and the colder air.
02:04 And those frontal systems will likely skirt along to the north of the UK, bringing rain at times.
02:09 They'll also develop these wave features on them as well.
02:13 That tends to bring a little bit more uncertainty to the weather forecast, but it also can pep up the rainfall.
02:19 So we could see some heavier rates through the course of the rest of the end of the week and into the start of next week as well.
02:26 But the general trend will be for weather systems to frontal systems to move across northern areas of Scotland,
02:32 while high pressure keeps those weather fronts at bay and dominates many southern areas.
02:37 So that means by Saturday, we've got a weather front out to the north of the UK, bringing heavy rain at times to many northern parts of Scotland.
02:45 We'll also see some drizzly rain moving in across more northern areas of England, parts of Northern Ireland and Wales as well.
02:52 But many southern areas staying dry, sunshine will be fairly limited, but it will still feel fairly fine and bright.
02:59 And temperatures are on the milder side, as we're expecting with that milder air by day, with highs of 11 or 12 degrees across the UK in many towns and cities.
03:10 However, by night, I think is when you'll really notice the difference, the change in temperatures.
03:15 So after a slightly few cooler nights to come through the rest of the week, you can see that temperatures will rise.
03:23 So the bottom line shows the minimum temperature and the top line shows the maximum temperature.
03:27 And this graph is for Brighton for the next week.
03:31 So as I said, a colder couple of nights to come through tonight.
03:34 But then temperatures do rise into Friday morning and Saturday morning, closer to the average maximum temperature for the time of year.
03:44 The maximum temperatures do rise as well, but it's not as much of a dramatic difference because we'll have limited sunshine.
03:51 So the sunshine won't rise, raise the temperatures as much in the daytime.
03:55 We'll have a look at a graph somewhere else now.
03:57 So this is Inverness, but much further north.
04:00 But you can see the temperatures don't change too much.
04:04 The maximum temperatures we're expecting aren't too different from more southern areas.
04:07 We still start in a colder place and temperatures rise through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
04:13 And you can see the minimum temperatures for Inverness on Friday morning and Saturday morning around 10 degrees.
04:19 And in fact, some northern areas of Scotland along the Moray Firth could see temperatures not dropping below 12 degrees overnight.
04:27 And if we did see temperatures not dropping below 12.3 over a 24 hour period, that would be a new December record for Scotland.
04:36 So that'll be one to watch through the next few days.
04:39 So it's definitely going to be a mild and fairly dry weekend for southern areas with rain expected for more northern areas.
04:46 You can see as we start to look into next week, particularly across northern areas,
04:50 the temperatures do tend to trend downwards, at least into the start of next week.
04:56 And that's because we'll see this weather front sinking southwards behind it.
04:59 We've got that cooler air. It's not dramatically cooler, but it will bring a fresher feel.
05:04 So on Sunday, that means that weather front sinks southwards.
05:07 So a greater risk of seeing some rain across parts of Wales and northern England in the southeast, though, it should stay largely dry.
05:16 Now, there is some uncertainty in the behaviour of how this front sinks southwards through Sunday and indeed how it clears through into Monday and Tuesday.
05:24 And that's because of those wave features I showed earlier.
05:27 But there is a general trend that we can expect.
05:30 So we can have a look at the accumulation of rainfall over the course of Saturday to Tuesday.
05:37 So over the course of four days for the weekend and into the start of next week, we've got three maps here.
05:42 This is the Met Office model, the European model in the middle and the American model on the far right there.
05:49 And you can see that actually there's a pretty clear trend that rainfall totals will likely build up across northwestern areas of Scotland in particular.
05:57 There will be some heavy rain at times across northwestern areas of England as well as southwestern Scotland, too, as well as Wales possibly.
06:04 But in the southeast, there's very little, if any, rain at all expected over the four days from Saturday to Tuesday.
06:12 So certainly a shift in the weather pattern from what we've seen so far this month to come through the weekend.
06:20 And that's the weather pattern we'll be with through Saturday into Monday, the most likely weather pattern with high pressure dominating to the south and low pressure to the north.
06:29 But how do things change into the start of next week?
06:32 Well, it is a subtle but there is a difference, a subtle change, but there is a difference into much of next week.
06:39 High pressure retreats further south, allowing low pressure to push in further north.
06:45 That will bring more unsettled weather more widely across the UK, allowing weather fronts to make better progress across the UK.
06:53 And as well as that, that will mean that the temperatures will tend to trend downwards closer to average.
06:59 So it still means that rain will tend to move in from the west or the north, bringing much of the rainfall to more north and western areas and more southeastern areas still staying largely dry.
07:09 But you couldn't rule out rain, wetter and cloudier days from time to time.
07:14 But as we see that slightly cooler air from the north, we'll see temperatures coming closer to average.
07:19 But I imagine they'll still be on the milder side of things for much of next week.
07:26 So that takes us to around Wednesday or Thursday next week.
07:30 But then how do things change as we are because we are expecting another shift in the run up to Christmas.
07:36 So this is the weather pattern we're at for much of next week.
07:39 High pressure slightly shifted slightly further south.
07:42 But as we head into the end of next week and into the Christmas weekend, we're expecting the high pressure to move even further south.
07:50 This is the most likely scenario.
07:52 There is a possibility that this doesn't happen as early as Thursday the 21st.
07:57 It could happen a little later.
07:58 So we could see that westerly weather dominate for a little while longer.
08:02 But the most likely scenario at this stage is for us to see a shift in a more northwesterly wind direction.
08:09 Now, the colours on this map demonstrate the pressure, not the temperature.
08:13 But with a more northwesterly pattern, it will that would mean it would turn a little bit cooler from the north and west.
08:22 So that means that in the run up to Christmas, it will turn colder from the north and west,
08:26 but still largely dry in the south and east with all the weather coming in from the north and west.
08:31 The south and east are most protected from those wind directions.
08:34 So plenty of dry and brighter weather still expected.
08:38 But that colder weather could sink further south from time to time.
08:42 That colder weather does also bring a potential for some snow showers in the run up to Christmas,
08:47 most likely over any high ground and in northern areas.
08:52 And in fact, there is at the moment very little signal that we'll see any widespread snow
08:57 or significant cold weather during the Christmas weekend.
09:01 However, don't let that diminish your chances at a white Christmas,
09:04 as we only need one snowflake to fall on Christmas Day to count as a white Christmas.
09:09 But if you are interested in the weather around Christmas and New Year,
09:13 you can keep up to date with the details by subscribing to our YouTube channel.
09:17 I'll see you later.