This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 22/01/2025.
The UK's weather changes dramatically this week as Storm Éowyn arrives on Friday. But does this open the floodgates to more unsettled weather into next week?
Bringing you this 10 day s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
The UK's weather changes dramatically this week as Storm Éowyn arrives on Friday. But does this open the floodgates to more unsettled weather into next week?
Bringing you this 10 day s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day period in which the UK's weather
00:05changes dramatically. Now, we've been flagging this change for some time because it's linked
00:10to goings on across North America. Now, we saw this intense cold wave develop over the
00:15weekend and the start of the week across Canada and the USA. That then collided with much
00:21warmer subtropical air, creating an enhanced temperature gradient. And often when we see
00:27these enhanced temperature gradients in the Northern Hemisphere, we see a more powerful
00:33jet stream as a result. And that is, in fact, what's coming out of North America at the
00:37moment, a very powerful jet stream, 250 mile per hour winds or so in the upper troposphere.
00:45And that causes areas of low pressure to spin up if they get on the right side of the jet
00:51stream. And in this case, storm Airwind moves onto the cold side of the jet stream and that
00:57allows it to deepen intensely and rapidly, a process known as explosive cyclogenesis
01:04where it deepens more than 24 millibars in 24 hours. And by the time we get to Friday,
01:10that's moving into northwestern parts of the UK and Ireland. So, it's likely to bring a
01:17spell of disruptive, damaging, even dangerous winds on the southern flank as it moves through.
01:25But before we get to storm Airwind, the weather turns unsettled from Thursday because of this
01:30feature just coming in ahead of that more active jet stream. And this is a front that's
01:34likely to bring a spell of heavy rain for a few hours during the morning across western
01:39parts of the UK accompanied by lively winds, 50, 60 mile per hour wind gusts for Wales,
01:44the south and southwest of England, yellow warning in force for this. And then it sweeps
01:49across the UK so that it's wet and windy in Scotland, northern England and the east of
01:53England by the end of the afternoon. Brighter skies from the west but staying blustery with
01:58further showers and feeling cold as that wet and windy weather turns up in the north with
02:02some hill snow for Scotland. It does clear through though and then Thursday evening it's
02:07calmer and clearer for a time that will lead to a touch of frost in one or two spots towards
02:12the east of the UK. And with that cold air in place, that's why we're likely to see a
02:17spell of snow as storm Eowyn turns up mostly over northern hills. Likewise for Ireland
02:24but this is midnight, Thursday night going into Friday and this is when the storm starts
02:29to move in. Initially a band of heavy rain and some hill snow but the winds really pick
02:35up behind the first band of rain and that's what we're all likely to see come Friday.
02:41So the winds are the main concern from storm Eowyn and this graphic shows how fast those
02:46gusts are likely to be. Now we're starting off midnight on Friday and this is just as
02:53storm Eowyn by 2 or 3am brings its most damaging winds into parts of Ireland and the colours
03:01here correspond to the key on the left so you can see just how strong those wind gusts
03:06are likely to be for the Republic of Ireland. That's why MetErin have of course issued red
03:12warnings. But for the UK as well it's likely to be a period of disruptive and in some places
03:17damaging wind. Western Scotland, Western and Southern England, parts of Wales and Northern
03:23Ireland by this stage 4am on Friday seeing wind gusts of 50, 60 and some places we've
03:29got some exposure 70mph. But the winds continue to pick up across Irish Sea coasts through
03:36Friday morning peaking at around 8, 9, 10am and this is when this very nasty swathe of
03:42strong winds is likely to move through Northern Ireland into the Isle of Man as well as North
03:46Wales, North West England and South West Scotland. These winds moving across Northern England
03:52as the morning progresses are likely to be very, very worrying so that's why the Met
03:59Office have issued an amber warning. Now Northern Scotland not seeing particularly strong winds
04:02until later Friday and into early Saturday as Storm Eowyn finally moves away and as you
04:07can see it turns much calmer further south by this stage. But this is the area of most
04:11concern and amber warning in force at the time of recording but of course these warnings
04:16may be refined over the next day or so and updated so I would encourage you to check
04:21the very latest on the Met Office website and app. But for the time being 70mph wind
04:27gusts inland in this zone with a risk of 90mph wind gusts around hills and coasts. Dangerous
04:32conditions around coasts with large waves, flying debris and transport disruption is
04:38likely as well as power cuts. So widespread disruption and dangerous and damaging wind
04:44gusts are likely from this storm. If you've got travel plans on Friday then I would encourage
04:51you to check the forecast and transport news very closely. Be prepared to change your plans
04:57and also if you've got any loose items around your home I would encourage you to secure
05:02those before we get to the winds on Friday. Elsewhere across the UK fairly widely we've
05:07got yellow warnings for the wind, 40-50mph wind gusts towards the south east of the UK.
05:12Elsewhere 70mph wind gusts in exposed locations, perhaps a touch more for western parts of
05:17Scotland. Now winds are going to continue to be strong in the north on Saturday, that's
05:23why there continues to be a yellow warning in Scotland. And on Friday winds aren't the
05:28only concern, we've got a spell of heavy rain for Wales and the south west, 25mm widely,
05:3360 over hills and snow mostly over hills, perhaps some temporary accumulations at lower
05:39levels but mostly we're talking about 5-10cm above a few hundred metres across Scotland
05:45and northern England and the risk of 25cm above 300m on the hills of northern Scotland.
05:55So let's take a look at the rain and the hill snow on Friday as this system moves through.
06:00The worst of the rain and the hill snow moves out of the way by the afternoon. Blustery
06:04showers follow and this is when the winds pick up across northern Scotland but they
06:07start to ease further south and with some brighter spells breaking out but it is going
06:12to be a very windy day for all of us. Then going into Friday night it actually turns
06:17a little calmer further south with clear spells and perhaps in one or two spots a chilly start
06:23to Saturday a touch of frost in places. Blustery showers for central and northern and western
06:27Scotland as well as northern Ireland and some cloud appearing again into the south and south
06:32east with the potential for some rain albeit light to moderate across south east England.
06:38Skip forward to Saturday afternoon and you can see actually it's a reasonable day for
06:42many across England and Wales, sunny spells feeling rather cold. Scotland and northern
06:49Ireland, some western areas seeing showers and these will be falling as snow across Scotland
06:53and it's going to stay windy for much of the day across northern Scotland in particular.
06:58But into Sunday after a fine start to the day it does soon turn unsettled once again
07:06with the next low turning up bringing another spell of wet and then windy weather to many
07:12parts of the UK from the south west. This is 4pm so a dry fine day for many before we've
07:18got this wind and rain moving in by the end of the afternoon.
07:23And this low is a different beast compared with storm Eowyn. It's not likely to directly
07:28cross the UK, it's likely to sit towards the west as a more mature feature. It will still
07:35bring strong winds and heavy rain and that rain falling on top of saturated ground could
07:40cause one or two issues. But it doesn't look like winds are going to be quite as potent
07:45as storm Eowyn. However, it is going to lead to more blustery weather throughout Sunday
07:51into Monday and potentially beyond that as well. The weather stays very unsettled.
07:58Here is that mature low just circling to the west of the UK bringing rain followed by showers
08:03and a very blustery start to next week. And if we skip forward to Tuesday you can see
08:09that a low, if not that one, still sitting to the west and north west of the UK. This
08:15is the most likely weather pattern for Tuesday 28th January and it's looking very unsettled
08:20with low pressure anchored somewhere to the west or north west of the UK. West to south
08:25westerly winds, relatively mild particularly towards the south west, colder further north
08:31and east with spells of rain or showers continuing throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. And in fact
08:37this chart shows that it's likely to stay unsettled throughout next week with areas
08:44of low pressure tending to come and go. These blue colours here on the forecast going out
08:51to the next couple of weeks indicate that low pressure systems of one flavour or another
08:57are likely to stay in charge. And mostly these lows are coloured up by this dark blue, so
09:04westerlies in charge. That is until we get to next Thursday and then this would indicate
09:10that there's quite a lot of uncertainty from that stage in terms of the precise weather
09:15patterns in charge of the UK's weather. But mostly I would suggest that this is just some
09:22uncertainty about where these areas of low pressure are going to end up sitting and that
09:27the trend to much more unsettled weather continues into the start of February. Just to give you
09:32an idea of what that looks like, these are the top three most likely weather patterns
09:36for next Wednesday. The most likely is one low clearing away, showery northwesterly winds,
09:43colder than average in the north, milder than average further south. But other scenarios
09:49show that low pressure to the northwest of the UK is also a possibility with much milder
09:58weather than normal and spells of rain or showers. So a very unsettled look for the
10:03middle of next week no matter which of these weather patterns is most likely. And that
10:09trend continues as January comes to an end. But one subtle difference starts to emerge
10:16in the modelling and that is that higher pressure looks slightly more likely to the south for
10:22the last couple of days of January and into February. And that high pressure edging into
10:27the south for example would lead to a shift in the most unsettled weather towards the
10:33northwest of the UK with perhaps some longer drier spells towards the south. But overall
10:40looking ahead to the 1st of February for example, the weather stays rather changeable with further
10:46blustery winds, milder than average and spells of rain or showers. We'll keep you updated
10:52on everything of course on our YouTube channel and make sure you stay up to date with Storm
10:56Eowyn approaching.