This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the weekend 17/10/2024. As one low clears on Saturday, another low quickly follows - and deepens - from the west. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, welcome to the weekend weather forecast from the Met Office. It won't be wet and windy
00:06all weekend but there will be some heavy rain around and there will be some strong potentially
00:11disruptive winds. The winds later in the weekend, the result of this area of low pressure which
00:16on Friday evening doesn't look like much, it deepens rapidly however. This area of low
00:21pressure ahead of it is the feature that's causing wet and windy weather across western
00:26parts of the UK on Friday and then a slow moving band of rain across central and eastern
00:31UK on Saturday, a wet start to the weekend here, especially through the Midlands and
00:36then by lunchtime eastern parts of England seeing that heavy rain. But brighter skies
00:41do follow from the west albeit with a few showers for Wales and the south west, north
00:45west England. Scotland and Northern Ireland see the most frequent showers interspersed
00:49by some brighter spells, 13 or 14 in the north, 16 or 17 further south and with the winds
00:55easing through the day not feeling too unpleasant. In fact the rain does finally clear the far
01:01south east by the end of the afternoon so something a little clearer into the evening
01:06but only ahead of this system which during Friday night and into Saturday just trundles
01:12along, it gets picked up by the jet stream and steered towards the UK but at this stage
01:17it's not a particularly deep low. Watch however as it becomes a deep area of low pressure,
01:24it moves on to the cold side of the jet stream and all these isobars are added to the centre
01:29of the low leading to widespread strong winds across many northern and western parts of
01:34the UK by Sunday. Now at the moment different computer models have a slightly different
01:41interaction between the area of low pressure and the jet stream and given the speed with
01:44which that low deepens, those subtle differences in the interaction between the low and the
01:51jet stream make a difference in terms of the depth and the track of the low as it approaches
01:57the UK during the early hours of Sunday. As a result we're a couple of days out, still
02:03some uncertainty about the exact nature of the winds, where the strongest winds will
02:08occur and the strongest gust of values. Either way suffice to say it's northern and western
02:14parts of the UK where we start Sunday with wet and windy weather, the winds strengthening
02:20through the morning, heavy rain for western Scotland, northern Ireland, western England
02:24and Wales. After a fine start in the east the rain soon arrives here mid to late morning
02:30and for all areas we're going to see several hours of wet and windy weather particularly
02:34during the first half of the day. Clearer spells follow with some brightness but also
02:38frequent showers and in fact it's at this stage that the strongest winds turn up, all
02:45associated with the central area of low pressure. Now in this outcome that low is just to the
02:51west of Scotland but different models have it slightly further north or slightly further
02:56south as a result the distribution of the winds are slightly different. But it looks
03:00likely that we'll see widespread gusts during Sunday and into Monday of 50-60 mph and in
03:07some places there's the risk of gusts in excess of 70 mph, the kinds of wind gusts that could
03:12cause fairly widespread disruption. So it's something we are closely monitoring here at
03:16the Met Office and we'll refine the warning that you can find on the app and the website.
03:21We'll refine that over the next couple of days as well, stay tuned for further updates
03:25on this. But like I say, strongest winds likely in the north and the west and at the moment
03:30most likely track takes it to the west of Scotland and that's where the very strongest
03:37gusts in excess of 70 mph could occur later Sunday and into Monday. Something that we'll
03:43keep you updated on right here at the Met Office. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for
03:47all the latest forecast videos and of course there will be other updates across our other
03:53social media channels. Bye bye.