This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 23/09/2024. After torrential thunderstorms brought flooding disruption over the weekend, there'll be further rain at times this week. But there'll also be a significant drop in temperatures by Friday... bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern
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00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. We had the
00:04autumn equinox over the weekend, the Northern Hemisphere is now tilted away
00:08from the Sun and by the end of this week the weather will begin to feel much
00:12much colder than it has felt during the past week or so. Of course over the
00:17weekend we had summer-like levels of humidity, deep instability and powerful
00:23thunderstorms with some absolutely devastating scenes from these
00:28thunderstorms during Saturday and Sunday but it all started on Friday with this
00:32small area that developed as it moved across London and the southeast into a
00:37supercell thunderstorm, frequent flashes of lightning as it pushed across other
00:42southern counties of England and South Wales and a tornado in Aldershot now
00:46into Saturday and we saw more thunderstorms developing across the
00:51south and across central parts of the UK, frequent flashes of lightning, thousands
00:56of lightning strikes and by Sunday and into Monday yet more rain, torrential
01:03spells of rain, in fact throughout Sunday and the first part of Monday
01:07Woburn recorded 125 millimetres of rain, that's more than twice their September
01:13average in just over 36 hours, hence the scenes of flooding that many parts of
01:21the south have seen during Sunday and into the start of Monday. Now Monday has
01:27also brought further spells of rain across central southern England, amber
01:30warning in force until the end of the day but the system responsible is moving
01:35away so that by the start of Tuesday well we're going to see that rain
01:38pulling away from the southeast and our attention turns to the north where
01:42actually Scotland and Northern Ireland have been relatively dry over the last
01:45few days but we'll see showers developing overnight and some longer
01:49spells of rain into the north and east of Scotland, some heavy rain, 25 and in
01:53places 40 millimetres of wet weather for the north and east of Scotland, showers
01:57for Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, much of England and Wales but interspersed by
02:01some sunnier spells, certainly a brighter and drier day towards the south and
02:05southwest and feeling a lot more pleasant because with lighter winds
02:10temperatures reaching 18 Celsius feeling warm enough but colder further north
02:15the marked contrast to north the south across the country we're going to see
02:19that temperature contrast continue through Wednesday and Thursday. Speaking
02:24of contrasts we're going to see a big change in the weather patterns around
02:28midweek because of this streak of strong winds in the upper atmosphere, the jet
02:34stream strengthening above the Atlantic and heading towards the UK on a south
02:40shifted path compared with what we'd normally expect climatologically and so
02:45that south shifted jet stream is going to pick up a number of areas of low
02:48pressure, quite a complex setup by Wednesday as these lows deepen and
02:53arrive into southern parts of the UK, a little bit of uncertainty about the
02:57exact number of lows, the depth, the track, the shape of these and their timing
03:02around the middle of the week but it looks likely that jet stream will be to
03:05the south of the UK and these lows will be sitting across southern parts so
03:09that's where the most unsettled weather will be around the middle of the week.
03:13Now we start off with some sunshine and some dry weather on Wednesday, a few
03:17showers for northern Scotland, parts of northern England, Northern Ireland but
03:20the clouds will gather, there'll be the first band of rain arriving through the
03:25afternoon across Wales into the south and southwest of England, later on
03:28Northern Ireland, heavy and persistent but it does move through, unlikely to
03:32cause major issues however coming on top of all of that wet weather that we'll
03:37have seen through the weekend and the start of this week across central
03:41southern England it's certainly not going to be welcomed. 17 or 18 Celsius
03:45away from that rain in the south, still cold across Scotland, parts of Northern
03:50Ireland, Northern England for the time of year however that's where we'll see some
03:54brightness in the north and the east of the UK before that rain arrives and it
03:58does sweep north, like I say there's some uncertainty about the depth and track of
04:02these lows and so there's some uncertainty about the north-south
04:04position of this band of rain on Thursday but it's likely to be
04:08straddling some northern and central parts of the UK and rainfall totals will be
04:12mounting up again across Northern Ireland, parts of Northern England, North
04:15Wales in particular, 60 to 80 millimetres in places, most especially North East
04:21England. To the north of that, colder but brighter with a few showers for northern
04:25Scotland and some brightness in the south but here we've got the potential
04:29for some slow-moving thundery downpours once again, probably not quite on the
04:35scale of the weekend storms but nevertheless some sharp showers to be
04:38expected. Now through Thursday and into Friday that low does pull away and
04:45opens the door to colder northerly winds to arrive at the start, at the end of the
04:50week. Now those northerly winds and the cooler air will be already across
04:54northern Scotland throughout the next few days but spreads countrywide by
04:58Friday and once we say goodbye to this band of rain which does clear away
05:02during Friday morning, the afternoon does look brighter but also fairly showery,
05:08the most frequent showers coming to the north and the east, some sunny spells
05:12elsewhere but it's going to feel colder in that wind with temperatures in the
05:16north 9 to 11 Celsius, perhaps some sleet and snow over the tops of the
05:19Scottish mountains and in the south those temperatures down by 2 or 3
05:23degrees compared with Thursday's weather and several degrees lower than what we'd
05:28normally expect for the middle of September. This is compared with the
05:32month's average maximum temperatures so 3 to 6 Celsius lower in many parts
05:38especially northern Scotland and central and southeastern areas. We keep that cold
05:43air in place as the weekend begins so a chilly start on Saturday but a ridge of
05:48higher pressure arrives so a temporary respite from the wind, rain, unsettled
05:55weather through Saturday and into Sunday. Still some showery weather into the
06:00north but the south mostly dry for a day or two, however it's unlikely to last
06:05much longer. Further low-pressure systems are gearing up to arrive into next week.
06:10More details on that of course over the next couple days. You can find all of
06:14these forecasts on our YouTube channel. Bye bye.