10 Day trend – Cold next week? 04/12/19
After a brief mild spell during the next few days, colder air returns for much of next week. But what weather can we expect? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has this week’s 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the next 10 days. In the next 10 days,
00:06the broad trends in our weather are reasonably clear. It's likely to be colder than average
00:12and we're likely to have low pressure rather than the high pressure that we started this
00:17week with. Any more detail than that later next week and into the following weekend,
00:22well it's impossible to say at the moment. But those are the broad trends, cold and changeable.
00:28But actually a brief spell of milder weather is likely in the immediate future. You can
00:32see these milder colours rushing into northern Britain, wind strengthening as we start off
00:37Thursday. And as this weather front pushes towards western Scotland, it's going to turn
00:42wet, particularly wet over the hills of western Scotland with rainfall amounts accumulating
00:48through Thursday and into the first part of Friday, 60 to 80 millimetres of rainfall in
00:53the wetter locations, more than 100 plus in any prone wet spots over the higher hills
00:58of western Scotland. Yellow warning enforced because that kind of rainfall can cause localised
01:03flooding and travel disruption. There'll also be outbreaks of rain increasingly for parts
01:08of northern England, north Wales, northern Ireland and especially again over western
01:12hills. Drips and drabs of rain elsewhere but a good rain shadow effect there for eastern
01:16Scotland, largely dry and mostly dry in the south. After any early fog lifts, well the
01:21breeze picks up through the day and it's going to be particularly windy for the north
01:24and the west of Scotland. Coastal gales, 65 mile per hour gusts, a big contrast compared
01:30to the weather of recent days and weeks in the north-west. The wind and rain sweeps south
01:35then and it's a completely different picture for Friday morning in the south of Britain
01:39compared to recent mornings this week. Wind and rain rather than frost and fog. The most
01:44unsettled weather moves along though and by the afternoon blustery showers follow for
01:48most parts of the country but particularly the north and the west. A gusty wind, hail
01:52and thunder and perhaps even some sleet and snow over northern hills because it is turning
01:58a bit colder behind that and the isobars tighten with the winds strengthening through the day
02:04on Friday but once this clears through a brief bump in the isobars for Saturday, a brief
02:10weather window if you've got any outdoor plans on the weekend. Then Saturday morning looks
02:14promising for most parts of the country. It's not going to be particularly sunny, it will
02:18cloud over through the day, that cloud thickening by the afternoon to bring some outbreaks of
02:22rain back into western Scotland, western parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, again
02:26especially over the higher ground. But the wettest weather really doesn't arrive until
02:30later on. Feeling chilly in the north but temperatures remaining around the double figures
02:36further south. This is Saturday evening into Saturday night, a spell of wind and rain crossing
02:41the country and then we're back into those blustery showers, most frequent, most prolonged
02:46across northern and western Britain. And temperatures, well, double figures, yes, but it's going
02:52to feel colder in the wind and we're in the single figures there in the north with colder
02:57air arriving towards the end of Sunday and with that wind strengthening as well as pulling
03:03in colder air, well, we'll likely see gales around northern and western and perhaps southwestern
03:08coasts and especially around any of those livelier showers that will continue through
03:13Sunday night. In addition, because of the cold air arriving, you can see the blues there,
03:18I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sleet and snow to lower levels later Sunday into
03:21the north of Scotland. But yeah, that's how it looks on Sunday, this north-westerly chilly
03:28airflow, the jet stream by this stage diving to the south of the UK. And Monday looks like
03:35another showery day generally with cold air close to the north of Scotland, further sleet
03:40and snow showers perhaps, but turning a touch milder later Monday into the southwest. It's
03:46only temporary though because if we look out to the west you can see what's next in line
03:50as far as our weather's concerned. A brief milder spell Monday night into Tuesday before
03:55more blues arrive, another dip in the jet stream for the middle of next week. And if
03:59we turn on the isobars you can see low pressure is responsible for all of this. The isobar's
04:05tight there and that suggests that what we'll see through Monday night and Tuesday is a
04:10spell of wind and rain crossing the country quite quickly before getting out of the way.
04:14And then this is Wednesday's weather, generally these blues, these tighter isobars and showers,
04:20blustery downpours back in for the middle of next week. Now it's quite remarkable that
04:25we're talking about the middle of next week, we're talking about this area of low pressure.
04:29It doesn't even exist yet but we're fairly confident that that's how it will behave through
04:33Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday. Where it goes from there, well that's where different
04:38computer model simulations say different things and we have to look at a broad range
04:43of simulations because by the middle of next week, well it's a long way away, and they
04:48all start to say slightly different things. Now what the majority of simulations suggest
04:53is that that low will be crossing northern parts of Britain to bring, well, quite frequent
04:58showers into the north and the west during the middle of next week with the jet stream
05:02to the south, colder than average air across the country. And some of those showers, well
05:07they'll be turning wintry and that means a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, especially
05:11over northern hills, perhaps at lower levels in the north, especially later next week as
05:17that low crosses the north of the country and we pull in a bit more of a northerly airflow.
05:22So that's the most likely, that's what the majority of computer model simulations are
05:26suggesting. But because these are showers, well it's likely that they'll be very hit
05:32and miss and it's southern parts of Britain that will mostly miss any showers that come
05:36through, be they rain, sleet, hail or snow. Now a fewer number of computer simulations
05:44give this less likely scenario, that low pressure dipping to the south of the UK, that would
05:49bring more widespread wintry conditions perhaps. Still colder than average, still the jet stream
05:54to the south of the UK. So if you're looking at your weather app, if it goes out beyond
05:58seven days for example, it might be giving one of these computer simulations. But what
06:04we need to do as meteorologists is look at the full range to give us an idea of what
06:08are the more likely and what are the less likely solutions for the end of next week.
06:14So what we can say where the computer simulations are all agreeing is that the jet stream will
06:18tend to be to the south of the UK, it will be colder than average across the country
06:23and that brings with it frost and ice in places overnight. There'll also be showers and these
06:29showers will be wintry in nature, a mixture of rain, sleet, hail and snow. What we can't
06:34do is give you details in terms of exactly what type of weather your particular town
06:40or city will get at the end of next week because it's a long way off and it all depends on
06:44the behaviour of that one area of low pressure. So stay tuned, we will keep you updated on
06:51all the details as we get closer to next week and you can follow those updates on social
06:56media. Bye bye.