10 Day Trend - what next after Lorenzo? 02/10/19
After the remnants from Hurricane Lorenzo sweep through on Thursday night and Friday, what’s next for the UK’s weather? More wind and rain or will it settle down? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office ten day trend. To sum it up, the next ten days, low
00:05pressure will more often than not affect our weather. Low pressure of course brings wind
00:10and outbreaks of rain, but it's never wet and windy all the time in the UK. There will
00:15be some drier insuludes and actually later next week the chance of some longer drier
00:19insuludes. In other words, it's typical October weather, despite the fact that parts of the
00:26UK will be impacted by an ex-hurricane over the next few days. And there's been nothing
00:32typical about Hurricane Lorenzo so far. It was a Category 5 monster at the weekend. The
00:39furthest east Category 5 hurricane has existed in the Atlantic Basin. This satellite sequence
00:45shows it transforming from a Category 2 to a Category 1 hurricane during Tuesday and
00:49into Wednesday. Now bearing down upon the Azores as a hurricane, but it does transform
00:55into a typical area of low pressure. The isobars start to disappear from it. The low
01:00slowly fills, still enough intensity by the time it reaches parts of Ireland on Thursday
01:07afternoon and into the evening for some potent wind gusts, 60 mph gusts, especially around
01:13coasts and hills of Northern Ireland and some big waves, coastal overtopping and so forth.
01:19So yellow warning in force for that. And MetErin are expecting even worse impacts for
01:25the Republic of Ireland. They've issued orange warnings and they have named it Storm Lorenzo.
01:31Now the strongest winds then overnight transfer to the southwest of the UK. South Wales, southwest
01:38England, 65 mph gusts. So yes, an ex-hurricane, but by this stage a typical area of low pressure
01:47that we often see at this time of year. Still strong enough to cause some impacts, especially
01:52around coastal parts of the southwest as we kick off Friday. But look at this, it quickly
01:57disappears later Friday. Lorenzo just fills completely and decays entirely from the UK.
02:06The isobars open out quite significantly in its wake. It's not just the winds that are
02:11likely to cause some issues. There's also going to be some wet weather on Thursday afternoon
02:15initially into Northern Ireland, some rain pushing into Wales there, southwest England,
02:19and then that wet weather sweeps across much of England, Wales, southern and western Scotland.
02:24Another pulse of rain then moves through Northern Ireland and then that pushes back into Wales.
02:29So some places, for example southwest Scotland, northern Ireland, western parts of England
02:33as well as Wales, 25 mm in one or two spots, more exposed hills for example, 50 mm of rainfall.
02:41The wet and windy weather though doesn't last long. Thursday night, Friday morning
02:45and then it gets out of the way. Meanwhile the far north and northeast, a largely quiet
02:50spell of weather, a few showers, a lot of cloud cover, but that quieter weather then
02:55transfers elsewhere by Friday afternoon. So a short-lived wind and rain spell, courtesy
03:02of an ex-hurricane, but it's all soon forgotten about. Temperatures around average for the
03:06time of year. A shadow of its former self, hard to believe this was once a category five
03:11hurricane as it pushes into the continent. Dwarfed by this low, a huge beast of a low
03:17heading towards Iceland. This isn't an ex-hurricane, it's just a normal area of low pressure formed
03:23by the jet stream. But it does bring with it some weather fronts, those weather fronts
03:27pushing in ahead of that low. The winds tend to drop out along those weather fronts and
03:31they become slow moving heading into the weekend. And that means actually on Saturday many places
03:36will have a fine day. A lot of cloud cover but it will be bright enough, some sunshine
03:40coming through for eastern parts of the country. The breeze picking up, outbreaks of rain later
03:45on Saturday appearing into western Scotland, west Wales, south west England and northern
03:49Ireland and that will make it feel cool. But it's actually temperatures generally mid to
03:55high teens. Now it's the rain in the west that moves its way eastwards that is a little
04:01bit uncertain at the moment because it really slows down. In fact it stalls by the start
04:06of Sunday. So western areas seeing the rain move through but across the central two thirds
04:11of the country, well it's the chance that on Sunday that rainfall could stick around
04:15and it could be heavy at times. Some uncertainty in terms of the exact position of this but
04:20it's likely that through the day northern Ireland, west Wales, south west England will
04:24brighten up with a few showers, cloudier and wetter elsewhere with those outbreaks of rain
04:29feeling cold with wind from the North Sea into eastern parts of Scotland. For example
04:3413 Celsius here at best, brighter skies, some sunshine emerging into the south west. And
04:41another low comes along this one actually we're more confident about heading into the
04:46start of next week compared to the weekend's low. Hard to believe that because actually
04:51it comes from nothing if we rewind the clock to Friday. This is it off the United States
04:57Canada eastern seaboard and you can see how the jet stream picks it up and deepens it
05:02rapidly. More and more isobars added to that low pressure as it moves across the Atlantic.
05:06This is Sunday and then it pushes towards Iceland by Monday. Again it brings weather
05:12fronts with it, it brings tight isobars and that means that it's on Monday a spell of
05:17wet and windy weather for virtually all of us. The winds potentially causing some issues
05:22for western Scotland, gales in places or even severe gales. The rain crossing the country
05:28slowly through Monday, everywhere likely to get wet. We don't need more rain of course
05:33in many parts of the UK. And it does clear through. By Tuesday it's clearing from the
05:38south east and then brighter skies but also frequent showers follow on. So what's the
05:44weather looking like for the middle of next week? Well we've still got this area of low
05:48pressure in place, we've still got a fairly lively jet stream running close to the UK
05:54and we've still got some tight isobars there. So breezy, further showers or outbreaks of
05:59rain coming in from the west, especially across northern and western parts of Scotland where
06:04there's likely to be gales, some hail, some thunder, some very lively weather. Further
06:08south and east a little drier and actually as we head towards the end of next week there
06:13are indications and I wouldn't take this too literally, it's just one computer model run,
06:18there are indications that high pressure will start to build in from the south west
06:23and by the end of next week this is something that could happen. High pressure building
06:28in from the south and west and something a little more settled, more long drier insuludes
06:35coming in for southern and eastern Britain but staying changeable with a keen breeze
06:40and further showers across northern and western Scotland. So typical October weather, lots
06:44going on over the next few days and of course you can keep up to date with all the very
06:48latest by following us on social media. Bye bye.