10 Day trend - November rain? 30/10/19
It’s been a wet October so far for some parts of the UK but the closing few days of the month, at least, have brought a more settled spell to many areas. But will the wind and rain return for November? Met Office meteorologist Aidan has the details.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day period that includes Halloween,
00:04bonfire night and the start of a new month.
00:08The crisp autumn sunshine of the week so far may be a distant memory by this time next
00:13week because during the next 10 days the weather turns unsettled, particularly so during the
00:17weekend, a high blustery weekend to come.
00:21And it will stay changeable into next week, albeit perhaps less lively compared to this
00:25coming weekend.
00:27So far this week has been dominated by high pressure, sunny days and frosty nights for
00:31most of the UK, but the jet stream out to the west has been trying to nudge weather
00:36systems our way and it has made some progress by pushing weather fronts into the south-west
00:42of England.
00:43Here we've had a couple of days of rain compared to the rest of the country under the sunnier
00:48skies.
00:49But the weather front will make a little bit further progress into Wednesday evening and
00:53as it pushes against the high pressure the isobars will tighten, it will turn increasingly
00:57windy so for Wednesday night a wet and windy night to come for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset,
01:02Dorset, parts of South Wales as well, but it's the south-west moors and coasts where
01:06we'll see the heaviest rain and the strongest winds, gales in exposed coastal areas.
01:12Staying mild here with all of that going on, but further north a frosty one for Scotland,
01:16northern England, temperatures in some sheltered glens down to minus five or minus six degrees.
01:22But by Thursday afternoon beautiful sunshine once again for Scotland, northern and eastern
01:26England as well.
01:28Meanwhile, a lot of cloud further west, but the rain and the wind has largely disappeared
01:32from the south-west and it's a little bit milder here, 13, perhaps 14 Celsius, stays
01:39fairly crisp elsewhere.
01:41Some of you might be out trick or treating into Thursday evening and the good news is
01:45most places will be dry, but there will be some mist and low cloud creeping into western
01:50parts of the country, western Scotland, northern Ireland, Wales and the south-west where later
01:55on it will turn wetter.
01:58That rain, courtesy of the weather fronts that are finally nibbling away at the high
02:03pressure and breaking the seal, spreading in for Friday, this is the day when we replace
02:08high pressure with low and unsettled weather sweeps across the whole of the country.
02:13So this is how it looks during Friday.
02:15It's just rain or outbreaks of rain spreading across the country, not wet all the time,
02:20but it's a dull, damp one and with a lot of low cloud and mist as the milder Atlantic
02:26comes in over cold ground and is milder, 15, 16 Celsius by Friday afternoon.
02:33What's causing this change?
02:35Well we have to go back to the current time, Wednesday, to see what's happening with the
02:39jet stream and at the moment the jet stream is being diverted around the UK because of
02:44the high pressure in place acting like a stone in a stream.
02:50But you'll notice out to the west over North America a much powerful part of the jet stream
02:56is starting to emerge and this is due to significant temperature contrasts, a big cold plunge over
03:03North America coming up against very warm air across say Florida and the south-east
03:09of the US and that temperature contrast then fuels an active jet stream and it's this
03:14portion of the jet stream which we can follow during Wednesday and into Thursday exits
03:19North America and then it pushes away all of this wobbly jet stream and it digs in across
03:25the UK.
03:26That then acts like a conveyor belt.
03:29It spins up areas of low pressure and sends them our way, in fact running through quickly
03:34Saturday and Sunday you can see how the jet stream just picks up low after low after low
03:38after low and pushes them into the UK and by Sunday it's just a mess.
03:43It's almost as if you're juggling four balls, you're trying to predict which one will land
03:49where and that becomes very difficult when we're talking about four or five days ahead.
03:55Suffice to say the weekend is unsettled, it's messy, there'll be wind and rain but not for
03:59everyone all the time.
04:01This is how Saturday looks, there'll be some wet weather pushing east and then lingering
04:05across north-eastern parts of the country along with a strong wind.
04:08Further south, bright spells, yeah, some showers coming in from the west and so it's not
04:13all a washout but there will be some gusty winds and some heavy showers around 11, 13
04:20degrees temperatures above average into Saturday night.
04:23It could become very lively as this area of low pressure spins up and spreads across southern
04:27parts of the country.
04:28Not good news if you're attending fireworks displays on Saturday nights but timings are
04:34tricky to predict at the moment.
04:35There will certainly be gaps in between these low pressure systems in case of paying close
04:39attention to the weather forecast.
04:41By Sunday another low spins up, heads towards England and Wales, meanwhile these low pressure
04:46systems are slow moving across the north-east of the country.
04:48There could be some prolonged wet weather for north-east Scotland, north-east England,
04:52something we'll keep an eye on over the next few days.
04:55But you'll notice gaps in between the weather systems, it's not a washout, there will be
04:58some sunny weather in between, 11, 12 degrees, temperatures not far from average.
05:04Now into the start of next week, the low pressure does move away, uncertainties with different
05:08computer models saying different things about how quickly it will move away.
05:12Some of them say that it will move away quite quickly and we'll have a dig of particularly
05:17cold Arctic air Tuesday, Wednesday.
05:21But more computer models suggest that the next low will move in before that happens.
05:26And so the weather's settling down for a time early next week, perhaps a bit of a chill
05:30for a day or two, but then we're back to low pressure moving in courtesy of the jet stream.
05:36The most likely position for the low pressure for the middle of next week is out to the
05:40west of the UK and it's, by this stage you'll notice the jet stream's to the south of the
05:45UK and it's quite amplified compared to the weekend.
05:49That means these low pressure systems will be slower moving and this is the end of next
05:53week, it's not moved far, it's likely to bring more rain to Wales and the south-west, not
05:58great news here, but longer, drier interludes elsewhere perhaps.
06:02Now with the jet stream to the south of the UK, temperatures will remain below average.
06:07So next week, yeah, unsettled, not quite as windy, not quite as boisterous as the weekend
06:12and it will continue to feel cold.
06:14We'll have the details as and when we get them of course and you can follow us on social
06:17media to find out the latest.