10 Day trend – wet for some then colder for all 23/10/19
Some parts of the UK will get a soaking at the end of this week but, as the rain finally clears later this weekend, colder air and brighter skies spread south across the UK. Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has this week’s 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. We've seen a different side to autumn
00:04during the last few days. Frosty, foggy mornings, drier days as well. But we are back to some
00:11wind and rain at least at first over the next 10 days. Not for everyone, but in some places
00:16it will be very wet. Once that rain finally clears through later in the weekend, though,
00:21we're back to drier and colder weather potentially through next week. In fact, it's fairly chilly
00:28in places as we start off Thursday. Quite a gloomy start actually for eastern and central
00:34parts of England. A lot of mist and low cloud around. And then some wet weather moving in
00:39for East Anglia, East Midlands, central southern England and the south east. This rain slowly
00:44petering out and clearing east. And then brighter skies follow. Plenty of sunshine in northern
00:48and western Britain finally, but with some showers. And those showers falling as hill
00:52snow across Scotland because we've got these blues coming in behind the weather fronts.
00:57Colder air returning. A widespread frost as we start off Friday in the north, but further
01:03south subtropical air is pushing back in. And this conveyor belt of warmth, well, it
01:11will translate not necessarily to warm air, but to high rainfall totals across western
01:18and central parts of the UK starting off Friday. Southwest England, Wales, a wet start to the
01:24day. That rain then moves its way steadily north and east. East Anglia in the south east
01:29largely avoiding it for the time being. The north of Scotland still sunny spells and wintry
01:33showers. But in between the wet weather moves in and as it bumps into the cold air could
01:38see a few flakes of snow over the tops of the peaks of northern England, southern Scotland.
01:42But what's of more concern, I think, is the strength of the wind pushing in all this rainfall
01:47and the amount of rainfall that we're likely to see piling up over western hills, Pennines,
01:52Welsh mountains, we're likely to see amounts of rainfall 40 to 60 millimetres widely over
01:57the hills. In some places, 100 mils plus. Yellow warning force, risk of localised flooding
02:05Friday into Saturday. Very wet spell of weather. Northern England into the far south of Scotland,
02:10Wales, western England as well. That's where the rainfall is as we start off the weekend.
02:15Wet weather plans, I think, need to be made for Saturday in these locations. A dry start
02:19to the weekend in the south east. Windy with that rain as well. It's bringing in gales
02:24around coasts of Wales and south west as well. And then those gales transferring their way
02:29along the channel. Meanwhile, Scotland brighter on Saturday compared to the rest of the country
02:34with showers. And then, well, finally, by the start of Sunday, the rain's out of the
02:39way. Some uncertainty on the timings of that rain, but it will clear through by Sunday
02:43and Sunday's looking a lot more straightforward. A bright, crisp sort of autumn day if that
02:48floats your boat. But for much of Scotland, it's a case of sunny spells and showers. And
02:54again, chance of some snow on the hilltops. 400, 500 metres or so. Most widespread hill
03:00snow of the season so far in Scotland. Nothing unusual for this time of year, of course.
03:04But it will feel cold widely across the UK, particularly in this strong wind that's blowing
03:09across northern and western Britain. Meanwhile, sunny spells, cold but bright essentially
03:15for many places on Sunday. A real difference compared to the wind and rain of Saturday.
03:20A similar day to come on Monday. A widespread frost with this cold air digging south. And
03:25then it's a crisp, bright kind of autumn day. Just a few showers around windward coasts
03:31of northern and eastern Britain. Otherwise, most places dry because high pressure is building
03:35in. That high pressure building in, of course, with cold air in place. And that means that
03:41it's still going to be below average as we go through Monday and into Tuesday. Fairly
03:46widely blues across the country there with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees below average.
03:53And that high pressure also tending to disrupt the jet stream. Now, the jet stream recently
03:58has been coming out of North America and directing low pressure after low pressure towards the
04:01UK. But with high pressure to the northwest of the country through to the middle part
04:06of next week, the jet stream coming out of North America then does that. It becomes disrupted.
04:12It's unable to send low pressure after low pressure in. But there's always the chance.
04:17And it's a small chance at the moment, always a chance that a filament of the jet may pick
04:21up on a low pressure like this one, for example, and send it towards us. This is one computer
04:27model outcome for the middle part of next week. This is Wednesday. And just a small
04:32filament of the jet stream deepens an area of low pressure and sends it to the UK, nudging
04:37the high out of the way temporarily. So always the chance. Around Wednesday that we could
04:42see some wind and rain across southern parts of Britain and some milder air whilst high
04:46pressure remains further or closest to northern Britain. But only a couple of computer models
04:53suggest that. Most of them suggest that high pressure will remain dominant throughout next
04:58week and even if that low pressure does happen, this builds in behind it anyway. So in summary,
05:05next week we're most likely to have high pressure nearby, especially close to northern Britain.
05:12There's always the possibility that low pressure will sneak into southern parts of the country
05:17around the middle of the week, late Tuesday through to Thursday morning. But it's a possibility
05:23rather than a certainty. Otherwise, most of the time next week I think that many places
05:27will just be dry. It will be chilly both by day and especially by night with frosts
05:33and fog. So a different side to autumn. And as we head into the new month, November of
05:39course, it might start to feel a bit more seasonal. Of course, this is just a trend
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