10 Day trend – Any drier next week? 16/10/19
Some parts of the UK have already experienced their average October rainfall and we are only halfway through the month. Are there any signs of drier weather next week? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. Are you fed up with the rain yet? It's
00:05not been wet everywhere recently, but certainly parts of the UK have already had their October
00:11average rainfall and we're only halfway through the month. It's going to stay unsettled over
00:16the next few days, particularly in those areas where we've seen a lot of rain. But the good
00:20news for those places is that next week promises some drier periods of weather. It's not going
00:26to be completely settled through next week, but longer breaks in between the rain. What's
00:31happening with our weather? Well, at the moment, we've got low pressure firmly in charge and
00:36that low pressure brought in by a powerful and fairly flat jet stream. A jet stream at
00:41the moment behaving like a superhighway, directing these low pressure systems, driving them across
00:46the Atlantic and sending them our way. But if I flip to the start of next week, you can
00:50see a big change in the shape of the jet stream. Rather than a superhighway, it becomes more
00:55like a meandering country lane. And as a result, those low pressure systems will be
01:00slower moving and in between, we'll have longer periods of high pressure instead. But returning
01:08to the current situation, because we've still got plenty more low pressure to come over
01:12the next few days and into the weekend, it's actually this low pressure that moves in and
01:17sticks around. Its main weather fronts are out of the way, but there'll be further weather
01:20fronts wrapped around it, bringing some longer spells of wet weather with them, especially
01:25this feature. Early Thursday, moving across central southern England and then by the afternoon,
01:30it's wet across East Anglia and the southeast. Once that clears out of the way, drier and
01:34brighter in the east, further blustery showers into the west, particularly Wales, western
01:39England seeing quite a number of these showers. And again, overnight Thursday into Friday,
01:43early hours of Friday, you can see some very wet weather, some very windy weather, coastal
01:46gales, a lively night on Friday and then a lively morning rush hour for East Anglia
01:52and the southeast as this wet weather moves through. But again, on Friday, once that clears
01:56out of the way, brightening skies, some sunshine in the east, further showers blown in from
02:01the west to affect western parts of England and Wales. And again, a blustery breeze could
02:06be quite tricky on the roads, especially around south Wales, for example, on Friday. Low pressure
02:12still there through Friday night into Saturday, but you'll see ever so slowly the isopars
02:17start to disappear. The low is filling. The winds start to ease away. That means that
02:22we'll wake up on Saturday in some places, central northern Britain, to some fog patches.
02:27But there'll also be further showers, especially around coastal areas overnight and then by
02:30day just about anywhere could see showers. Now, there's some uncertainty over the extent
02:36of some more prolonged wet weather across northern Britain through Saturday and Sunday.
02:40It looks likely that northern and northeast Scotland will see some persistent rain on
02:45Saturday and then that could drift south for Sunday. It's in this general area where it's
02:50likely to be further unsettled weather with outbreaks of prolonged rain at times, perhaps,
02:55and a lot of cloud cover. Elsewhere, it's more scattered showers, particularly across
03:00western coasts of England and Wales. A decent area of shelter here, mainly dry for East
03:06Anglia, but also a small part of western Scotland seeing some dry weather. And it's
03:11actually this that will become the trend into the start of next week. Drier weather coming
03:16in from the northwest, not just the northwest, actually, all the way from North America.
03:21This is Wednesday, so this is the time of recording. Jet stream flat and active across
03:25the Atlantic. But over North America, a big bump there starts to develop and that ripples
03:29downstream, heading up towards Greenland by Saturday and then into Sunday. You can see
03:34that bump starts to topple in from the northwest over the UK. What does that mean? Well, essentially,
03:40within that bump here is an area of high pressure. And with that high pressure coming in from
03:45the northwest, it's going to start to settle things down. It's going to move that low pressure
03:50away and reduce the showers for the start of next week. So, showers easing early next
03:57week. Monday, Tuesday, most places becoming dry. There could be some lingering of showers
04:02across southern areas before the high pressure moves in. But, of course, with dry weather
04:06at this time of year, with clear skies by night, there's always the potential for some
04:10dense fog to form. And that will take some time to clear during the mornings. Now, with
04:16the high pressure moving in for next week, a good chance of more settled, prolonged dry
04:20weather for the early part of next week. But then the jet stream becomes a bit more flat
04:24again, a bit more active, helps to send this low pressure across northern Britain for the
04:28middle of next week. And we've got quite high confidence that we'll see some unsettled
04:33weather returning Wednesday, Thursday next week, especially in northern Britain. But
04:38further south, where we've had a lot of wet weather recently, perhaps not so much rain.
04:42However, we have got low pressure around the Iberian Peninsula, and that's worth keeping
04:46an eye on, because it's indicative of a jet stream that's still in a bit of a mess. It's
04:50still quite meandering in our atmosphere. And that causes some uncertainty for the end
04:55of next week, because, of course, when the jet stream is a bit more like a country lane,
05:00it's more difficult to predict the direction and the speed of its low pressure systems
05:06that are travelling along it. So for the end of next week, there are a few scenarios, but
05:11there's a lot of uncertainty by the time we get to Friday, Saturday. This low moves away,
05:15and then it's possible that we'll get a cold wind for a time. It's also possible that this
05:20area of high pressure will move in and bring more widely settled weather with frost and
05:25fog and that sort of thing, but bright days. There's also a possibility that we'll have
05:30low pressure returning, but sticking around for some time. So there's a few possibilities,
05:37but what looks unlikely is that the jet will be a straight line bringing low after low
05:41after low. It looks more likely that the weather will be including more prolonged dry weather
05:47next week, a break in the rain, much needed for southern parts of Britain, especially,
05:52and also some fog around by night and by morning. So this is a trend. It gets more uncertain
05:58to next week, but you can keep up to date with the very latest forecast day by day by
06:03following the Met Office on social media. Bye bye.