10 Day trend – record-breaking heat, then what? 24/07/19
Truly exceptional heat hits the UK on Thursday, probably breaking temperature records. But what happens next? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Never mind 10 days, all everyone's
00:05talking about at the moment is the next one day. Truly exceptional heat coming along for
00:09Thursday, record-breaking heat. And then the inevitable thundery breakdown Thursday night
00:14into Friday and in some places continuing through the weekend. Now, those thunderstorms
00:18eventually will lead to fresher air arriving from the west heading into the start of next
00:25week. More comfortable, I should imagine, for some people, because this will be far
00:30from comfortable. Oppressive heat and humidity rising northwards across the whole of the
00:36UK virtually on Thursday, just escaping Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. You can see
00:42the reds there, record-breaking heat on its way. Temperatures rising quickly as that hot
00:49air arrives on Thursday morning. Long spells of sunshine as well. Just a bit more cloud
00:55there for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The far south-west, one or two spots of rain.
00:59Showers and thunderstorms starting to break out there across parts of Wales and the north-west
01:02of England. But temperatures on the whole are rising, and they're rising really significantly.
01:0929, 30 Celsius south of Scotland, and then widely into the 30s across much of England,
01:14east Wales as well, mid-30s across much of the heart of England, and the headline number
01:20there for London, 39 degrees, breaking the July record for the UK. And there's a 70%
01:26chance that we'll get above 38.5, so that would give us the UK all-time record. The
01:3330% chance that we won't beat it is down to the fact that there could be some cloud around
01:38that could stop the temperature from rising so quickly. However, it is likely to be a
01:43record-breaking day, and with that heat and that humidity, we're going to see thunderstorms
01:48soon developing, especially across eastern parts of the country into Thursday night,
01:53clearing away first thing Friday. Frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds as well. Another
01:57lively night to come in places. Further west, it's a lot quieter. Sunny spells breaking
02:02out through Friday, but we're behind now a cold front, and that cold front means that
02:09it's going to start to feel more comfortable across western parts of Britain. That cold
02:14front won't quite reach the east of England. North-east Scotland here, temperatures into
02:18the high 20s again, and still the possibility of 33 degrees or possibly higher across east
02:25Anglia. You can see the considerable difference further west. And it's the slowing down of
02:30this cold front that is causing a few headaches here at the Met Office at the moment, because
02:35it then starts to cause trouble into the weekend. Along this cold front, we'll see outbreaks
02:40of heavy thundery rainfall, but you can see it doesn't move very far very fast. Into the
02:45start of the weekend, it really slows down. In fact, it comes to a grinding halt across
02:50northern and eastern Britain as it meets this beast, this huge anticyclone across Scandinavia.
02:57Not only is it a large area of high pressure, but it contains with it all of that heat that
03:02we're going to see over the next couple of days. And as that cold front pushes into that
03:08heat dome, well, it's not going to move very far. In fact, because it slows down, it's
03:15increasingly difficult to predict through the weekend. The jet stream's not going to
03:18move it along. That dives to the south. And so that means that we're paying close attention
03:24to this area of cloud and rain across northern and eastern Britain on Saturday. Some areas
03:28seeing a very wet day indeed, some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain, particularly for
03:32Scotland, northern England, parts of eastern England, further south-west, Wales, the south-west
03:36of England, northern Ireland, sunny spells and actually feeling quite pleasant with temperatures
03:41around average. The temperature's considerably lower where it's raining though, some 15 degrees
03:46lower compared to Thursday. Spot the difference by Sunday, the weather front's still there,
03:51still bringing rain to more or less the same affected areas. Outbreaks of rain on and off
03:57through Sunday, perhaps further thunderstorms. Again, driest, brightest across south-western
04:02areas. But this position of the weather front, don't take it too literally, and I'll show
04:06you why. Looking at the combined rainfall totals through Saturday and Sunday from three
04:12different computer projections, the UK model, the European model and the American model.
04:17And you can see the brighter colours there indicating those areas most likely to have
04:20a wet weekend. They're in just slightly different positions. Not a tremendous difference, but
04:26depending on where you are, it will make a difference to you on the ground. Now, the
04:30UK model has it a little bit further west, western Scotland, into northern England, east
04:34Anglia. The American model has it much further east, northeast Scotland, North Sea. The European
04:40model, the most likely outcome at the moment, we reckon, central and southern Scotland,
04:45parts of eastern England, seeing a wet weekend, driest further west. So, tricky to predict
04:52exactly where the heaviest and most prolonged rainfall will be through the weekend. But
04:56either way, that weather front tends to peter out into the start of next week. It's going
05:01to be increasingly affected by the high pressure to the east, and it will just become an area
05:05of showers moving away to northern Scotland. Meanwhile, the jet stream to our west starts
05:11to pick up areas of low pressure. And into Tuesday, into Wednesday, this is the most
05:18likely position for the low pressure from the Atlantic to appear. Now, don't be too
05:23worried about it. It doesn't look. It's going to be a lot less bad than it looks, is what
05:29I'm trying to say. That low pressure will move in, carrying with it outbreaks of rain
05:34and showers, but eventually just fizzling out as it meets the high pressure to the east.
05:40And then by the end of next week, this is the most likely outcome, something of a no-man's
05:47land across the UK, low pressure somewhere to the west, high pressure somewhere to the
05:50east, light winds, a bit of rain in the north-west of the UK, but many places dry with sunshine,
05:58one or two showers, and temperatures rising. And if the winds point from the right direction,
06:04we could bring in hot air again much later next week. So, to summarise, certainly we're
06:12not looking like record-breaking temperatures after this Thursday. For at least a week or
06:17so, it's going to be considerably fresher. There'll be some rain in to next week and
06:22showers, particularly Tuesday, Wednesday. Then it turns warmer and drier in many places.
06:27So although it's not going to be exceptional heat and humidity next week, summer is far
06:32from over. And of course, you can find much more details. You can keep up-to-date with
06:36all the latest by following us on social media. Bye-bye.