10 Day Trend - How long will the heat last?
It’s turning hot over the UK in the next few days, with different parts of the country experiencing the heat at different times. By next week the mercury for all will be back closer to average. Alex Deakin explains.
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00:00Hello. Welcome to the Met Office
00:02ten day trends that takes us
00:04into July.
00:05June has certainly been an
00:07interesting month.
00:08The first two thirds of it cool
00:10and wet. Spots we're about
00:12to embark on a hot spell of
00:14weather with many places seeing
00:16sunshine for the next three or
00:17four days and many of us seeing
00:19some heat. Although the
00:20distribution of that heat will
00:22vary day on day, as we'll
00:23see in a minute.
00:25How long is the hot weather
00:26going to last?
00:28Well, the short answer is not
00:29very. Actually, as we go through
00:31the weekends, temperatures will be
00:33dropping back down closer to
00:34average. And next week promises,
00:37well, actually, maybe what
00:39many of us have been hoping for.
00:40Some dry weather, some sunny
00:42spells, but without the
00:44intense heat that some
00:46of us will see over the next few
00:48days. So there's plenty to talk
00:49about in the coming 10
00:51days.
00:52Let's deal with the big picture.
00:53First of all, high pressure to the
00:55northwest of the UK, low pressure
00:57down to the southwest.
00:58It's that that's drawing up the
00:59warmer air.
01:00But as these two are squeezing
01:02together, notice quite a few
01:03isobars in the charts across the
01:05south. So, yes, we're talking
01:07about sunny weather for
01:08most and hot weather for a
01:10few as well. But we also do need to
01:12account for these strong and gusty
01:14winds across the south,
01:15particularly so the southwest
01:18during Thursday.
01:19Could start a bit misty and murky
01:20on Thursday, but the cloud moving
01:22back will stick with some in
01:24the far north and close to the
01:25east coast. But for many, it's
01:27sunshine on Thursday
01:29and temperatures jumping up.
01:30But with the winds coming in from
01:32the east, well, there'll be a big
01:34gradient in the temperatures across
01:36the UK. Parts of the east coast
01:38will really struggle, especially
01:39where it's cloudy, mid-teens
01:41at best. And it won't feel all that
01:43hot across East Anglia and the
01:44southeast, even inland, even in
01:46the sunshine.
01:47It'll actually be a bit cooler than
01:48Wednesday in some spots, only 24
01:50degrees Celsius.
01:52Now, it's in the west where
01:52temperatures will really be most
01:54noticeable through Thursday.
01:56Twenty eight, twenty nine is
01:57possible across parts of the
01:58southwest and warmer
02:01across Western Scotland and Northern
02:03Ireland. Could well be the warmest
02:04day of the year so far in this
02:06part of the country.
02:08Let's fast forward to Friday
02:10and, well, it's going to be a
02:11similar story again.
02:12Parts of the east coast will be
02:14cooler, but if anything, temperatures
02:15are a touch higher across parts of
02:17the west. Twenty nine or thirty is
02:18possible on Friday, close
02:21to the Glastonbury area.
02:22By this stage, notice the high
02:24pressure has shifted.
02:25Instead of being to the northwest,
02:27it's now moved out into
02:29the North Sea and that subtle shift
02:31is important because it allows the
02:32southerly flow to take hold.
02:35And so even more
02:37of that hot air coming up from
02:39France, Spain and in fact, North
02:41Africa is heading our way
02:43through Friday and especially
02:45into Saturday.
02:46So that's why it's hotting up
02:47through Friday.
02:48And then if we just fast forward
02:49into the weekend, the high just
02:51shifts away, the low pressure
02:53starts to build in more and we
02:54just get a subtle shift in
02:56the wind direction, particularly
02:58across parts of the west, which
02:59means the air here won't be quite
03:01as hot. The peak of the temperatures
03:03going to be across the east on
03:05Saturday, and that will be a big
03:07jump because we'll have lost that
03:08flow from the North Sea and the
03:10wind's small. Coming in from the
03:11south means temperatures could
03:13really get up over 30 degrees
03:15with the possibility of
03:16values getting into the mid 30s,
03:19probably somewhere to the north of
03:20London. A few days away.
03:22So, yes, details could vary on
03:24that. But we are expecting the peak
03:25of the heat now to be across these
03:27eastern areas on Saturday.
03:29But even here, it doesn't last
03:30because just as we run through
03:32Saturday night and Sunday, look at
03:34that heat draining away,
03:36pushing into the near continent by
03:38Sunday.
03:39We're back to the yellow and green
03:41colours. Temperatures will be a big
03:43drop for large parts
03:45of the country from Saturday into
03:46Sunday. Low pressure back in
03:48control and the winds now not
03:49coming from the south, but coming
03:50from the Atlantic, where they have
03:52been for much of June.
03:54So that's bringing that, well,
03:56cooler, maybe over-egging
03:58it a little bit less hot feel,
04:00certainly on Sunday.
04:01It means the nights will become much
04:03more comfortable as well, much less
04:05humid. So we're going to see a big
04:06change or big changes over
04:08the next few days.
04:10This image shows that quite nicely.
04:12This is where we're going to see the
04:13peak of the heat Thursday.
04:15The red colours, temperatures above
04:17average. So it's western areas
04:18seeing the heat really on Thursday
04:20and particularly so on Friday.
04:21The darker red there, well above
04:23average across the west.
04:24Notice both days that east coast
04:26actually hints of blue there,
04:27temperatures below average
04:29here.
04:30Big switch around on Saturday, the
04:32cooler air coming into the west.
04:33So it's eastern areas that see
04:35those temperatures well above
04:37average. And it's going to be a big,
04:38big jump, especially on that east
04:40coast, a big jump which then
04:42gets returned on Sunday
04:44as the cooler air spreads right
04:46across the country and temperatures
04:47more widely back closer to
04:49average. It's going to be a real
04:50roller coaster ride over the next
04:52few days.
04:54But this is, of course, the 10 day
04:55trend. So we need to look at beyond
04:57the weekend into next week.
04:58Let's start with the picture on
04:59Sunday. Low pressure is in control,
05:01so it will be quite breezy.
05:02A lot of isobars on the chart and
05:04it will be noticeably cooler.
05:06But if we just pull out, yes,
05:08low pressure bringing a few showers
05:09on Monday. But this is a big area
05:11of high pressure.
05:13And actually through next week,
05:15it looks like this will be the
05:16dominant feature.
05:18I'm going to show you one computer
05:19scenario now for next Tuesday.
05:21This is the European model.
05:22Which has the high pressure here
05:23pretty much sitting slap bang over
05:25the UK. But notice the green and
05:27the yellow colour.
05:28So although it'll be largely dry,
05:30probably fairly sunny, it's
05:32not going to be as hot.
05:34Temperatures will probably be around
05:36or a bit below average in the
05:37mornings in particular.
05:38Could be rather chilly.
05:40Fast forward to next Thursday.
05:42Again, this is just one computer
05:43scenario, but I want to show you it
05:45because it does show the two
05:47fighting elements as we go into
05:48next week. Still, mostly there's
05:50a bit of ridging in there.
05:51Mostly it's high pressure in
05:52control next Thursday.
05:54But just above my head there,
05:56that's an area of low pressure.
05:57And notice the heat isn't
05:59too far away.
06:00So it would only take a subtle
06:01shift in the position of the
06:03pressure pattern, either to bring
06:04the low pressure closer and bring
06:06us more showers or also to
06:08reinstigate the heat, especially
06:10across parts of the south.
06:11So that's the big question mark as
06:13we go into next week.
06:14A lot of places seeing a lot of
06:15fine weather next week.
06:16But we could see, as I say,
06:18maybe the heat returning across the
06:19south, but equally some wetter
06:20weather into the north and west.
06:22And that's displayed with these
06:24graphs here that show
06:26the trends through 10 days and
06:27beyond. Actually, the top two
06:29representing Oban on the west
06:31coast of Scotland, the bottom two
06:33showing Northwold just to
06:34the west of London.
06:36Now, the red blobs, that's the
06:37temperature. And you can see here
06:39that big jump we're expecting in
06:40and around eastern parts of
06:42England. Temperatures around
06:44about average.
06:45This is Wednesday, Thursday,
06:47Friday, and then that big jump for
06:48Saturday before they drop back
06:49down into the early part of next
06:51week. But there's a hint here
06:53for the second half of next week,
06:55the temperatures could start to
06:56rise as the suggestion
06:58that we could tap back into that
06:59hot air.
07:00Whereas compare that with Oban and
07:02we've got the temperatures rising
07:04over the next few days, the drop on
07:05Saturday dropping further on
07:07Sunday and probably staying closer
07:09to average into next week.
07:11But also I want to show you the
07:12difference in the rainfall, the
07:13green blobs here.
07:15And over the next 10 days
07:17or so, very little rain expected in
07:18the North Holt area.
07:20But increasingly with that low
07:21pressure closer by as we go
07:23into the middle part of next week,
07:25greater chance of seeing showers
07:27across into the Oban area.
07:28So that's really the reflections as
07:30we go into next week.
07:31At the moment, it looks like, well,
07:33it won't be as hot as the next few
07:36days, but many places will see a lot
07:37of dry and fine weather
07:39and some sunshine.
07:40The nights in particular could be on
07:42the cool side, largely dry
07:43across the south.
07:45Most likely see showers across the
07:47north and the west closer to that
07:48area of low pressure.
07:50Plenty going on then, as I said,
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