Ten Day Trend - Spring sunshine on the way but how warm will it get?
A shift in the jet stream will allow the pressure pattern to change this weekend. High pressure will bring drier and sunnier weather that could last most of next week and it should get a bit warmer, but just how warm? Alex Deakin has the latest.
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00:00Hello, welcome to the Met Office
00:0110-day trend.
00:03We're going to see some big changes
00:04with the weather over the next 10
00:06days.
00:07Good news if you don't like the
00:08rain.
00:09This is a fairly typical scene on
00:11Wednesday, but the change isn't
00:13happening immediately.
00:13So for the next few days, we can
00:15expect more showers and the
00:17weather to remain on the cool side.
00:19But then, especially through
00:21the weekend, we are expecting
00:22things to turn a lot drier,
00:24sunnier, and
00:26eventually things warming up a
00:28little bit. We're not promising
00:29much heat at this stage, just
00:30temperatures getting back closer
00:32to or a bit above average
00:34as we go through next week.
00:35But it will be significant because
00:36it has been on the chilly side
00:38for a while now.
00:40What's going on?
00:41Well, simply, we're shifting
00:42pressure patterns, low pressure
00:43dominating through Wednesday.
00:45Fast forward to Monday and
00:47it's high pressure sitting across
00:49the UK.
00:50Show you those again.
00:51Low pressure on Wednesday.
00:52Weather front's bringing rain
00:53isobars close together.
00:55It's blustery, it's gusty, and
00:57it's cool by the time we get to
00:58Monday. High pressure, not as
01:00many isobars.
01:01The winds will be lighter, high
01:02pressure bringing dry weather and
01:04probably a fair bit of sunshine
01:06too.
01:07That's next week.
01:09Before then, we've still got low
01:10pressure dominating on Thursday,
01:12bringing cool and showery
01:13conditions across the East Coast,
01:15particularly across Northern
01:16England early on.
01:17But it should dry up a little bit
01:19here. Heavy showers from Northern
01:20Ireland through Wales, the
01:21Midlands, across Southern England
01:23too. Some sunny spells,
01:25but no great warmth.
01:27We might get into the teens across
01:29the South. Temperatures again
01:30across much of Scotland, despite
01:31some dry and bright weather, only
01:33nine or 10 Celsius.
01:34So it's still on the cool side.
01:37The low pressure does ebb away
01:38during Thursday, but it's not
01:40immediately replaced by that
01:41high. We've got another low to
01:43contend with drifting across the
01:44South during Friday night.
01:46That could bring some heavy rain.
01:48Notice it's not a particularly
01:49intense low.
01:50There's not a lot of isobars with
01:51it. And that's because it's not
01:53really developing much.
01:55We're not calling it an
01:56intensifying area of low pressure.
01:58And the reason for that, well, we
01:59have to look high up in the
02:00atmosphere at the jet stream.
02:02Now, this is the picture for the
02:04next couple of days.
02:05We're on the northern side
02:06of the jet stream, the cooler
02:08side. Here's that low that's moving
02:10in for Friday and Saturday.
02:12And notice the jet's not
02:13particularly strong.
02:15The pink colour is the core of the
02:17jet, not especially
02:19dominant. So that's why that low
02:20isn't really intensifying as it
02:22moves across the UK.
02:23Where the jet does get really
02:25lively through the next few days is
02:27out in the Atlantic.
02:29And this is kind of triggered by
02:30the severe storms that's going on
02:32across the US at the moment.
02:33But look at the jet stream by
02:34Saturday. It's really driving south
02:36and some brighter pinky purpley
02:38colours there, the core of the jet
02:39intensifying.
02:41And what happens is the jet dives
02:42south and that amplifies,
02:45as we say, the jet and pushes it
02:46northwards to the west
02:48of the UK and eventually then
02:50arches over the UK.
02:52And we're in an upper ridge
02:54where on the warmer side of the jet
02:56by Sunday and it's in this
02:58upper ridge area, whereas at the
03:00surface we're going to see that high
03:01pressure starting to move
03:03in. So the high pressure taking
03:05control through the weekend.
03:07So we're really expecting this
03:08changeover during the weekend.
03:09Saturday, still a fair few showers
03:11around some sunshine.
03:12The showers fading through the day
03:14and generally most places
03:16set for a fine day on Sunday with
03:18some sunshine, but it doesn't warm
03:20up immediately. It takes a while.
03:21So gardeners, well, still take note.
03:23Frost's possible, especially so on
03:25Sunday morning.
03:26Yes, that warming process is going
03:28to take a while. The cold air still
03:29in place during Saturday.
03:31But let's build the high pressure
03:32in through Sunday and Monday and
03:34notice how those blue colours
03:36disappear.
03:37But the yellow and orange colours
03:39don't really swamp the UK.
03:41Still some tinges of green there by
03:42Monday. So we're only really at this
03:44stage looking at temperatures
03:45getting back closer to
03:47average, especially so in the
03:49east.
03:50Then what happens next week?
03:51Well, that high pressure should
03:53stick around.
03:54It looks like it's going to
03:55dominate.
03:56There are weather fronts out in the
03:57Atlantic and some uncertainty about
03:59how far they will push in the
04:00threat of some bringing some rain
04:02across the northwest.
04:03But for most places, that high
04:05pressure promises a lot of dry
04:07weather next week.
04:08Many places seeing sunny spells
04:10by day.
04:11Big question mark, how much will we
04:13warm up?
04:14And for that, well, day by day
04:15variations on the position
04:17of the high and the exact
04:20direction of the wind.
04:21Well, that will have a big impact
04:23on what we see temperature wise.
04:25Will it really warm up that much?
04:26Well, the continent at this stage
04:28hasn't warmed up.
04:29So even if we get the winds from
04:30the continent, not necessarily
04:32looking at temperatures rocketing,
04:33but it should certainly feel quite
04:36a bit warmer than it has done for
04:37the past few days.
04:39And how long will the high pressure
04:40last? Well, it looks like most of
04:42next week. This graphic
04:44telling us that the high pressure
04:45will dominate for a while.
04:47Now, don't worry too much about the
04:49numbers. It's mostly about the
04:50colours.
04:51These are the computer runs over
04:53recent days and these are the
04:54forecast days going along
04:56the top. So the weekend is here
04:59and you can see the blue colours
05:00dominating for the next two or
05:02three days. Blue means low
05:04pressure. And as we've seen, that's
05:05what we're expecting low to stick
05:07around. But then the high pressure
05:09builds in and it probably will
05:10last. It looks like well into
05:12next week and
05:14only some uncertainty as we get
05:15towards right towards the end of
05:17next week, as you'd expect.
05:19That is eight or nine days
05:21away. So for the majority,
05:23dry weather will dominate
05:24throughout next week.
05:25We should see some sunshine and
05:26we'll probably see those
05:27temperatures rising a little bit
05:30at this stage.
05:31As always, with the 10 day trend,
05:33things can vary day on day.
05:35So make sure you keep up to date
05:36with the very latest forecasts by
05:38sticking with the Met Office and
05:40going to our website, downloading
05:42an app or following us on social
05:44media.