10 Day trend – high pressure turns up, will it stay? 10/07/19
High pressure will bring more widely settled weather this weekend but how long will it stick around for? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. The weather at the moment is somewhat
00:05messy, a lot of cloud cover across the UK, outbreaks of rain, showers, thunderstorms
00:10in northern Britain, sunny spells in southern UK. Very different weather depending on where
00:15you are, but it does sort itself out over the next few days. Any thundery showers tend
00:20to ease heading into the weekend, high pressure builds and for most it's looking fine. Does
00:26that continue into next week? In a word, no. It looks like we'll revert to very similar
00:32weather patterns that we've got at the moment for the middle of next week and that means
00:37again a return to the messiness, a return to rain or showers or thunderstorms in the
00:42north, sunny spells in the south and warm, humid conditions for virtually all of us.
00:49The humid air at the moment of course is being brought about by an Atlantic air flow, that
00:54Atlantic air producing a lot of cloud cover, thick low cloud for western areas. Any sunny
01:00spells confined to the south and the north east where temperatures rise on Thursday,
01:06mid-twenties or even higher and that humidity and the rising temperatures sparking some
01:12thundery downpours, especially central, southern, eastern Scotland, north east England where
01:17these showers with a lack of wind will be slow moving. So hit or miss, yes, but if you
01:21get caught in one, well a serious amount of rainfall, risk of disruption. Yellow warning
01:26for thunderstorms in force. Friday's a similar picture, sunny spells but yeah a lot of cloud
01:33coming in from the Atlantic and showers developing as temperatures rise through the day. Again
01:38it's eastern areas where we're likely to see the heaviest downpours, risk of thunder and
01:43lightning and so on, but these showers perhaps not quite as fierce as Thursday's. Further
01:48west the weather is settling down, most places dry if rather cloudy because high pressure
01:53building in, that high pressure ridging all the way from the Azores helping to bring fine
01:58weather for the weekend and it's because the jet stream to the west of us starts to become
02:03more amplified because of that low pressure and it starts to rise to the north of us for
02:08the weekend. But you can see it just there dipping to the south across eastern parts
02:13of Britain and so on Saturday it's not going to be glorious sunshine everywhere, there
02:18will be a lot of cloud cover again and that cloud giving one or two showers across eastern
02:22parts of the UK, mostly light. But eastern areas will keep a lot of cloud cover through
02:28Saturday and temperatures will be lower. Best of any sunny spells, southwestern areas, temperatures
02:34into the mid-twenties. Similar on Sunday, lots of cloud cover but some sun coming through
02:41and temperatures rising, low to mid-twenties in many places, feeling warm away from the
02:46North Sea coast. One or two showers developing but nothing particularly heavy or prolonged.
02:51Most places seeing a fine weekend. So, does it continue into next week? Well, not really.
02:58It does continue into Monday which of course is St. Swithin's Day and the old proverb goes
03:03if St. Swithin's Day be fair, for forty days twill rain nay mare. And it doesn't even look
03:10this year like it will be true for one or two days because there's an increased chance
03:16from Tuesday onwards that that high pressure will be nibbled away by weather systems to
03:21the west. And this is how the middle of next week is looking. Low pressure likely to be
03:27around to the northwest of the UK, very slow moving and that low pressure starting to turn
03:35things more unsettled once again. If that looks similar, well you only have to look
03:39at the weather at the time of recording to see just the same sort of pattern. Low pressure
03:45in almost exactly the same place and at the time of recording that is bringing a lot of
03:50cloud cover to the UK. Weather fronts across northern areas, sunny spells in the south,
03:55rain or showers across northern Britain. So, if you want to know what the weather's doing
03:59this time next week, you just have to look at what the weather's doing over the next
04:03couple of days. Northern Britain, a lot of cloud, areas of rain or showers and high humidities
04:10setting off thunderstorms, especially in the north but not exclusively. I just want to
04:15show you two graphs here. This one is for central Scotland, this one's for southern
04:19England and it's a rainfall trend essentially. You can see the rainfall essentially trends
04:24to zero through the weekend and into the start of next week. But by Tuesday in parts of the
04:29north, a trend for higher rainfall amounts and that increases through the middle part
04:34of next week. The numbers there in the north, bigger than the numbers on the graph for the
04:39south. Similar trend though with an increased chance of rain or showers across southern
04:43areas from the middle of next week. However, a lot of uncertainty, a lot of spread here
04:48because this signal is the result of the weather being showery, so hit and miss downpours rather
04:54than long spells of rain. And of course with showers, it's an unreliable amount of rainfall.
05:00Some areas will see plenty, some areas won't see much at all. So, an increased chance later
05:05next week of rain or showers mainly in the north but some of those showers affecting
05:11southern parts of Britain. And it will stay warm or humid. Temperatures will stay above
05:16average through next week from the north to the south. It's just that the north will see
05:20the lion's share of outbreaks of rain, showers, thunderstorms, whereas the south will see
05:25the best of any sunny spells and temperatures into the mid-twenties. In other words, after
05:31an interlude of high pressure this weekend, we go back to the kind of messy weather we've
05:35seen at the moment. And of course, details are always going to be tricky to get right
05:41at this range, particularly when the weather is that messy. So, the best way to stay up
05:45to date is by following us on social media. Bye-bye.