10 day trend – A cooler few days and nights ahead with not much rain expected
High pressure will dominate our weather into next week. That’ll bring plenty of dry and bright weather but northerly winds will also make for a cooler feel by day and night
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00:00Hello. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day trend that takes us just beyond
00:06the autumn equinox. So with the nights approaching 12 hours long, there's plenty of time for
00:10things to cool off and chilly mornings will definitely be a feature of the weather as
00:15we go through the weekend. And for the next few days, this area of high pressure will
00:19be a big feature of the weather. It's going to dominate, pushing away this weather front,
00:24pushing up against this other area of low pressure. And as those two squeeze together,
00:29the isobars pinch together as well. That means the winds will be picking up, especially
00:34so on Friday. But the high eventually winds out and this area of high pressure will dominate
00:39for the next five or six days, at least, bringing a lot of dry and fine weather with sunny spells
00:45by day. Let's just rewind the clock, however, because as this high pushes up against this
00:51low pressure, as I said, it's going to squeeze the isobars together, which will generate
00:55an ever-strengthening northerly wind. Now, that is going to bring cooler conditions
01:00for all, both by day and by night, and particularly noticeable along some of these eastern coasts
01:07as that wind really starts to strengthen through Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, the high
01:13pressure moving in should finally make those winds ease off a little bit across the east
01:18and so introducing slightly milder air, perhaps as we go through Sunday and more likely as
01:24we go into next week. So certainly turning chillier over the next few days. Temperatures
01:29by day of late in the south have been into the mid-20s. By Thursday, still into the low
01:3520s here. But for many northern areas, we're only looking at the mid-teens. And again,
01:40out on that wind and it really will feel quite chilly on Thursday, but perhaps even more
01:44noticeable on Friday, by which time we're struggling to get much above 18 Celsius in
01:49the south. Many places across the north barely getting into the teens. And again, that wind
01:53even more noticeable on Friday. Quite a lot of cloud in the east with a few showers likely
01:58too. And add on that wind, it will feel like temperatures are in single figure. So that's
02:04pretty noticeable certainly compared to what we've seen of late. So a big chill by day
02:09and as I mentioned, by night, particularly as those winds ease off a little through the
02:13weekend. Nighttime temperatures in urban areas down into single figures. And so in rural
02:19spots, we will be well down into single figures. Really quite cold starts on Saturday and perhaps
02:26Sunday morning as well. So yes, turning chillier over the next few days and nights, but certainly
02:32for the next several days, a lot of dry weather around. There will be some showers, particularly
02:36across northern Scotland and also along the east coast of both Scotland and England as
02:41those winds pick up during Thursday and Friday. And that cooler feel for all of us. What happens
02:48beyond the weekends? Well, high pressure will still control things during Sunday and
02:55into Monday as well. And as it builds in more, those easterly winds will finally start to
03:00ease off by the time we head to Monday. So at the moment, Monday looks dry with sunny
03:05spells for much of the UK, albeit with a bit of a chilly start. Notice there are weather
03:10fronts just trying to push in from the northwest, perhaps introducing a bit more cloud and maybe
03:15even a little bit of drizzly rain in the far northwest on Monday. And that's the biggest
03:19question mark as we go through the early part of next week, just how quickly these weather
03:24fronts will start to topple in with high pressure holding on. Certainly, it looks like across
03:29much of the south of the country. And that's the general pattern as we go through next
03:34week. As I said, the big question mark is how fast these weather fronts do push in.
03:38This is the European model for next Thursday, the most recent run. You can see the UK is
03:43here and these dots, that's precipitation, rainfall from that weather front. And you
03:50can see from this European model run, the most recent model run, that even by next Thursday,
03:54those weather fronts haven't made much progress, just bringing some outbreaks of rain across
03:59Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. But compare that to the previous model run and
04:05that had that weather front toppling much further south, sitting across parts of England
04:10and Wales. So, a very different look. Again, this is the next Thursday and this is just
04:15one computer model run, but quite a bit of uncertainty there. What we tend to do with
04:20these longer range forecasts is look at more probabilistic weather forecasts, run the model
04:25many, many times. And that gives a flavour of what the weather is more likely to be.
04:30And this is the pressure trend through next week, where red is high pressure, previous
04:36model runs down the side there and the dates going forward across the top. And what this
04:42is suggesting is that it's much more likely that the high pressure will hold on with more
04:47reds on the chart deep into next week. So, that indicates that, as I say, high pressure
04:52is more likely to be the dominant feature through next week. And those weather fronts
04:56are likely to be held further out west, more kept at bay. So, that means that the dry weather
05:02is likely to continue for much of the UK for most of next week. There will be some
05:06rain on those weather fronts, just question marks about the timing as they push in from
05:11the northwest. It is going to turn chillier over the next few days and nights, as we've
05:15seen, but temperatures are likely to rise a little as we go through next week. But,
05:19of course, as we approach the equinox, those longer nights, an increasing chance at this
05:24time of year that we could see some thicker fog patches in the morning. As always, for
05:29day-to-day details, make sure you stay up-to-date with everything from the Met Office by following
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