10 Day trend – Strong signs of drier weather, but not just yet 11/03/20
More showers this week but the signs of spring are continuing to show through. A shift in weather patterns next week will allow high pressure to bring the UK some drier days and maybe some spring sunshine. The exact shape and position of the high wil
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00:00Hello, welcome to your Met Office 10-day trend.
00:04There are signs of drier, perhaps sunnier weather
00:08just around the corner.
00:09And by just around the corner, I'm
00:11really talking about next week.
00:13The rest of this week, the next five days,
00:15it is more of the same weather-wise.
00:17There'll be showers, longer spells of rain,
00:19often quite blustery.
00:21And after a couple of mild days, it
00:23is also going to turn colder again.
00:25Although, having said all that, Friday
00:27does look like a dry day for most.
00:28But for a longer spell of drier weather,
00:31well, we are going to have to wait until next week.
00:33But there's now some pretty strong signals
00:36that high pressure will arrive.
00:37Haven't seen that for quite some time.
00:39Certainly bringing drier weather,
00:41the likelihood of chilly nights and some frost,
00:44the possibility that if we see some sunshine,
00:47it could just start to feel a bit more like spring.
00:50Before we get there, though, we do
00:52have to contend with further areas of low pressure.
00:54Warm weather from swinging across the country tonight,
00:57bringing some wintry weather.
00:58Another low bringing more wet and windy weather
01:00during Thursday, the isobars squeezing together.
01:03Follow those isobars, and as that system clears
01:06on Thursday, well, the air is going
01:07to be coming down from the north.
01:09That's some pretty cold air.
01:11Haven't seen much of that through the winter.
01:13It doesn't last, but it will bring a bit of a chill
01:16for many on Friday morning.
01:18But on Friday itself, this little bump in the isobars,
01:21well, that is a tiny ridge of high pressure.
01:24So as I said at the start, for many,
01:26Friday looks like being a dry and a fine day,
01:29although you will notice there are more weather fronts,
01:31another low pressure system waiting in the wings.
01:33That will bring rain to the west later on in the day.
01:36But as I said, for many parts of the country,
01:39Friday, after a cold start, looks largely dry and bright.
01:43That rain in the west, though, that area of low pressure
01:45will move across all parts during Friday night,
01:48springing rain, followed by showers for most on Saturday,
01:51followed by another low for Sunday.
01:54Again, the isobars fairly close together.
01:56Going to be a blustery weekend.
01:58And there's a little wriggle, a little ripple,
02:00or a wave, as we call it, on that weather front.
02:04And that has the potential to bring some heavy rain.
02:06Now, don't rely too much on the details at this stage.
02:10Waving weather fronts are notoriously tricky
02:12to predict the details of.
02:14But that could just bring some heavy rain for time
02:16across parts of the UK on Saturday night and into Sunday.
02:20Generally, though, the weekend, we
02:22are back to showery, breezy conditions.
02:25Beyond the weekend, though, beyond the weekend,
02:28it does look as if the weather will be finally settling down.
02:32The jet stream is the key to all this.
02:35It's been south shifted over recent weeks,
02:38taking low pressure systems across the UK.
02:40Over the next few days, well, it has some ripples and wiggles
02:44in it that will enhance those low pressure systems.
02:47But by the time we get to early next week,
02:49the jet stream is back further north.
02:51And it's steering the low pressure systems further north
02:55up towards Iceland, allowing high pressure
02:57to dominate across the southern parts of the UK at least.
03:00So here, looking like a fine start to the working week.
03:03But notice that low isn't too far away from northern
03:06Scotland, and there'll be strong winds and some outbreaks
03:09of rain here.
03:10But generally, it is high pressure
03:12taking control next week.
03:13How long will it stick around for?
03:16That's the big question.
03:17Well, this chart suggests it's going to stick around
03:19for a while, for most of next week.
03:21I've been showing this chart for the past few weeks
03:23on the 10-day trend.
03:25It shows the pressure tendency, the most likely pressure
03:28scenario across the UK.
03:30Blue is low pressure.
03:32Red is high pressure.
03:34Down the y-axis here, we're going back in time.
03:37And these are the forecast days ahead.
03:40So the most latest run of the computer model
03:42suggesting that high pressure will be in control.
03:44And the last few model runs have had a strong suggestion
03:48that through the middle part of next week,
03:50yes, it will be high pressure in control.
03:52Some uncertainty about exactly how we get there.
03:54And that red line there, well, that's
03:56showing us that ridge, that area of high pressure
03:58that we saw for Friday.
04:00So yes, high pressure is set to build in next week,
04:03bringing drier weather.
04:06However, the position of the high
04:08is key to the exact type of weather that we see.
04:12So the exact shape and position of the high
04:15will tend to move around in forecasts
04:18over the next few days.
04:19But the high pressure, if it's sitting like this,
04:21well, that's fairly straightforward.
04:23Slap bang over the UK, then most parts of the UK
04:26will see dry weather.
04:28It means this time of year, the nights
04:30are still long enough for some frosty conditions.
04:33But by day, we should see some sunshine.
04:34There's a bit of power in the sun as well.
04:36So it will feel like spring in the sunny spells
04:39in the afternoon.
04:40However, high pressure can be in control of our weather,
04:42but not necessarily sitting right over us.
04:45If the high is shifted further south,
04:47then fine and dry across much of England and Wales
04:50in this scenario.
04:51But around the area of high pressure,
04:52the winds could be coming in like this
04:54across Northern Ireland and Scotland,
04:56springing more cloud, more moisture,
04:58and therefore some rain.
05:00Equally, the high pressure could be shifted
05:02in a slightly different orientation.
05:03If it's a bit further north,
05:05well, then across Scotland, Northern Ireland,
05:07Northern Britain generally, yes, sunny with light winds.
05:10But around the high, we could start to see
05:11the winds coming in like this,
05:13fairly brisk winds across East Anglia and Southern England,
05:15springing a cold feel and more moisture off the North Sea
05:19and therefore a bit more cloud.
05:21So high pressure doesn't necessarily mean sunny everywhere.
05:24It does mean that next week looks an awful lot drier
05:27across most of the UK,
05:29which is good news given such a wet February.
05:31And we are likely to see some nighttime frost.
05:33Some sunshine is expected,
05:35but the details of exactly where and when,
05:37well, for that, you'll need to stay tuned.
05:39Stay up to date.
05:40And the best way to do that
05:41is to follow the Met Office on social media.