10 Day Trend – September sunshine and warmer weather? 11/09/19
High pressure will dominate the UK over the next week or so and, as a result, most places will have fine weather. It may not be that straightforward in Scotland, especially at the weekend, Alex Deakin explains.
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00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10 day
00:02trend, 10 days that takes us
00:04to the equinox.
00:05But while the days are still longer
00:07than the nights, they should be
00:09filled with plenty of fine, bright
00:11weather. Yes, quite a bit of
00:12September sunshine on offer
00:14for much of the UK.
00:16As always, there'll be one or two
00:17exceptions.
00:18There's still enough power in the
00:19sun to produce some warm conditions
00:22by day, but the nights are now long
00:23enough for things to cool off.
00:25So the nights and the mornings could
00:27be a little bit on the chilly side.
00:29Now, for fine, sunny weather, we
00:31need high pressure to be building in
00:32across the country.
00:33And it is on the way, but
00:35not for the next couple of days.
00:36We've still got weather fronts and
00:38low pressure dominating at the
00:39moment. And this one in particular
00:41will introduce cloud and rain into
00:43the northwest.
00:44But it's also bringing up some
00:45warmer air from the south.
00:47So on Thursday, with some sunshine
00:50across the east, temperatures could
00:51get into the mid-twenties.
00:53As this weather front swings in, it
00:54will reintroduce cooler air to the
00:56northwest as well as bringing some
00:57cloud and rain.
00:59So quite a temperature contrast
01:01across the country on Thursday.
01:03But that weather front does clear
01:04away. And here comes the high
01:06pressure moving in on Friday
01:08and sticking around through Saturday
01:11and Sunday.
01:12Just going to pause it there,
01:13though, because it's not dominating
01:15everywhere. Notice there's low
01:16pressure to the far north, lots
01:18of isobars on the chart across
01:19Scotland.
01:20Could get pretty gusty on Sunday.
01:23Some strong winds, particularly in
01:24the east. And this weather front
01:26sinking south will bring some rain
01:28across northern Scotland on
01:29Saturday and perhaps push further
01:31south on Sunday.
01:32I say perhaps because there is
01:33quite a bit of uncertainty about the
01:34position of this weather front tied
01:36into this area of low pressure.
01:38And that comes from the jet stream.
01:40That low is being driven by the jet
01:42stream, but a subtle shift in the
01:44jet could push that low and
01:46its weather fronts further north or
01:47it could just be a little bit
01:48further south. So that is one
01:50question mark for the weekend.
01:52For the vast majority, though, with
01:54high pressure dominating, the
01:55weekend looks dry, plenty
01:57of warm sunshine by day.
01:59The morning's a little bit cool and
02:01a little bit misty, but it is likely
02:03to get quite gusty across Scotland
02:05and there is the chance of some
02:07rain around.
02:09So that's the weekend.
02:10What about next week?
02:11High pressure is set to remain
02:13in charge as it builds in
02:16behind one cold front, temperatures
02:17drop a little on Friday, but that
02:19building high will see building
02:21temperatures by the time we get to
02:23Sunday, or we could have values
02:25across the south back up into the
02:27mid-20s.
02:28Again, depending on the position of
02:29that cold front, the colder air
02:31could be in place across northern
02:33Scotland and temperatures again
02:35here could struggle to get into the
02:36teens.
02:37But this high is sticking around.
02:40So is this weather front.
02:41And that's one of the big question
02:42marks into the early part of next
02:44week. The position of this weather
02:46front, will it be a bit further
02:47south? Will it be a little bit
02:49further north?
02:51As I say, there's a bit of
02:51uncertainty about that.
02:52It doesn't make a massive
02:54difference to the weather because
02:55the high pressure is building in.
02:57It's kind of stringing out the
02:58weather front so there won't be a
03:00lot of rain on it.
03:01It'll just be probably a weak band
03:03of clouds. But the position of it,
03:05as I said, is important
03:07because it marks the boundary
03:08between the very warm air across the
03:10south and the cooler air further
03:11north. So a bit of a question mark
03:13about where we'll see the highest
03:15temperatures through the early part
03:16of next week and just how high the
03:18temperatures could get across the
03:19south.
03:21After that, well, the high pressure
03:23really does look like taking
03:24charges. This next graphic
03:26shows.
03:27This is the projections through
03:29the future along the dates, along
03:30the top there of what is the
03:32more likely weather scenario
03:34across the UK.
03:35Blue would mean low pressure.
03:37Red means high pressure
03:39or anti-cyclonic conditions.
03:41And as you can see, this graph
03:43is pretty red.
03:45A strong signal from the computer
03:47models that high pressure will
03:48continue to dominate throughout
03:50next week. And high pressure means
03:52dry and fine weather.
03:54It can, at this time of year,
03:56lead to some foggy mornings, of
03:57course. And the position of the
03:59high, well, that
04:01will be crucial
04:03in the fine detail day
04:05by day across the country.
04:07If the high pressure is sitting
04:08pretty much slap bang across the
04:10heart of the country, well, it may
04:12at times allow some weather fronts
04:13to bring cloud and rain to the
04:14northwest while most of the UK
04:17sees plenty of sunshine.
04:18But in the centre of the high,
04:20that's where the winds are lightest
04:22and that's where we're most likely
04:23to see some morning mist
04:25and fog.
04:26If the high pressure is situated a
04:27little further west, that could
04:28allow weather fronts,
04:30showery rain to come down across
04:32the northeastern, perhaps some
04:33cooler air to come in here
04:35too. And with the high pressure
04:36shifted further west, it means
04:38western areas are more likely to
04:39start with mist and
04:41fog. But if the high is a little
04:42bit further north, most
04:44places will be dry and fine with
04:46some sunshine.
04:47And that could also
04:48allow us to tap into some warm
04:50air from the near continent.
04:52So as I said, just subtle
04:54positional shifts in that high
04:56will be, the devil will be in the
04:58detail as we go through next
05:00week. But it does look like high
05:01pressure will bring many places
05:02fine and dry weather for
05:04much of the next 10 days.
05:07Thanks for watching. Keep up to
05:08date with the very latest details
05:10day on day by following the Met
05:12office on social media.