10 Day trend - Any signs of sunny weather returning? 07/08/19
The next few days bring unseasonably wet and windy conditions to the UK with warnings in force. Calmer weather should develop for a time next week, but the outlook remains rather mixed. Alex Deakin has the details.
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00:00Hello, and thanks for joining me for this look at the weather trends through the middle part of August.
00:05Yes, August, not autumn, although that is kind of how it'll feel over the next few days
00:11as we see a spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather, especially on Friday and Saturday.
00:16After that, well, there are signs the weather will calm down a little bit.
00:20It looks a bit drier through Sunday and Monday. There will still be a few showers around.
00:24And then beyond that, no sign of any hot spell of weather,
00:28staying fairly changeable it looks like through next week.
00:31But there should at least be some sunshine, but generally things on the cool side.
00:36There's plenty going on then over the next 10 days, to say the least.
00:39It's sunshine and showers through the middle part of this week with low pressure controlling things,
00:43still bringing some heavy downpours across Scotland.
00:46And then there's a brief gap, a brief drier interlude,
00:49with Thursday being the driest day of the working week for many.
00:52But down to the southwest, this is where our attention is drawn at the moment.
00:57An area of low pressure really intensifying over the next 24 hours out in the Atlantic.
01:02Why is it intensifying? Well, it's because of the jet stream,
01:05that fast moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere,
01:08just bending like this and really, as I say, intensifying this low pressure system.
01:13It then heads towards the UK as a deep feature.
01:16And these weather fronts spread the rain across the country on Thursday night and Friday.
01:20Some bright colours in there, some heavy downpours likely,
01:2310 to 15 millimetres of rain quite widely, 30 millimetres in some places,
01:28maybe more over hills and with ground saturated after recent downpours,
01:31it could cause some problems.
01:33So we do have a yellow warning in force,
01:35covering large swathes of the country for Thursday night and into Friday.
01:40And then the low pressure itself gets another bit of a kick, actually,
01:43through Friday night and into Saturday.
01:45And then the winds really develop on its southern flank.
01:48The isobar squeezing together there, so unseasonably gusty
01:51across a good part of England and Wales on Saturday.
01:55Gust of wind widely inland up to 40 miles an hour and around coasts 50, 55 miles an hour,
02:01perhaps a bit more around some exposed coasts.
02:03Those kind of winds could certainly cause some travel disruption,
02:07maybe even bring down a few branches.
02:09And so there is a warning in force for those strong winds.
02:13And then further north, actually close to the area of low pressure,
02:16it's the fact that the winds are quite light.
02:18We could see some big thunderstorms that become slow moving,
02:21and that could also then exacerbate further flooding issues.
02:25So we have another warning in force for that.
02:27So, yes, many warnings in force through Friday and Saturday, rain, wind and thunderstorms.
02:32Make sure you stay up to date with the very latest through the Met Office website or app.
02:37Now, this is the 10-day trend.
02:39So let's look a little bit beyond the severe weather heading our way
02:42through the first part of the weekend,
02:44because the low pressure does clear away through Sunday.
02:47And high pressure close by doesn't come and sit right over us.
02:52It just kind of wafts a little ridge towards us.
02:55But that does offer something at least a little bit drier through Sunday,
02:58Monday and into Tuesday as well.
03:00Now, let's just run through that sequence again,
03:02but this time showing the warmth of the air,
03:04because this low pressure system for the weekend,
03:07although it's bringing wet and windy weather,
03:08it's also bringing some warm air up from relatively far south.
03:12But that warm air gets moved away as the low moves away.
03:15And then on its backwards flank of it, it will introduce cooler air,
03:19the greener colours pushing south across the UK.
03:22So it should turn a little drier through the early part of next week.
03:25There'll still be some showers around, but not as many.
03:28The cooler air can't provide the intensity of the showers that the warmer air can.
03:32So there will still be some showers next week,
03:34but with lighter winds, it will be a little bit fresher and overall a bit drier than this week.
03:41What about beyond that?
03:43Well, there's some uncertainty, but that ridge of high pressure was fairly weak.
03:47It may not last.
03:48Another air of low pressure is set to then move in.
03:50And this is the most likely set up through the middle and latter stages of next week,
03:53with low pressure somewhere close to the north east of the UK,
03:57high pressure out to the west.
04:00And that means the winds will be coming down from the north or the northwest,
04:02which means these numbers are suggesting how much cooler than average the temperatures will be.
04:07So something of a fresher feel through the latter part of next week.
04:10But notice this high pressure isn't too far away.
04:13And then there are signs that at the end of next week,
04:16that high pressure may become the dominant feature,
04:19which would introduce a lot drier weather.
04:22But still, we'll be getting the feed or the winds coming down from the northwest.
04:25So it's still going to be on the cool side, if anything.
04:28So later next week, yes, likely to stay changeable, not completely dry.
04:32It doesn't look like we're going to see any spell of warm or sunny weather in particular.
04:36But overall, yes, it will be a little bit drier and brighter
04:39than it will be through the course of the next few days.
04:42Now, there are many warnings in force.
04:44So make sure you stay up to date with those, as I said,
04:46either through the app, the Met Office website.
04:49So one of the best ways to keep up to date is to follow us on social media.