10 Day trend - Are there any signs of a shift in weather patterns? 04/03/20
After an exceptionally wet February the weather may not have been as extreme in March so far, but the weather patterns remain a bit stuck with low pressure systems expected to bring further spells of wet and windy weather next week.
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00:00Thanks for joining me for this Met Office 10-day trend.
00:04After a record-breaking February, March at least has started a little bit drier,
00:10but overall the weather patterns haven't really changed.
00:13And there's no real sign of that in the next week and a half either.
00:17The weather remains changeable, unsettled.
00:20Further spells of wet and windy conditions to come over the next week or so,
00:25with brief drier and brighter spells in between.
00:27The main theme is that we're not expecting any large area of high pressure to sit around any time soon.
00:34If you're after drier weather, well, the best you can hope for at the moment is just to be between low-pressure systems.
00:40And that's kind of where we are as we start into Wednesday and Thursday.
00:45There's low-pressure systems surrounding the UK.
00:47This one approaching the south will bring some wet and windy weather,
00:50certainly to France during Thursday.
00:53And on the northern edge of it, the south coast, looking fairly soggy for a time on Thursday morning.
00:59But that low is tending to shift away.
01:01And for large parts of the country, Thursday will be dry and bright, just a few showers.
01:06But it's not going to be mild temperatures.
01:08In many places, just six or seven Celsius.
01:11So feeling pretty chilly for this time of year.
01:14That low-pressure system pushes away.
01:17Behind me, though, there is another weather front approaching.
01:19This band of rain will move in on Friday.
01:21But as it does move across the country, it kind of breaks up and fizzles out.
01:25So just bringing a few showers into the west.
01:28Again, large parts of the east looking largely dry on Friday.
01:32The bigger picture, though, does reveal another chunky area of low pressure out in the North Atlantic.
01:38And in particular, we need to watch this here, this triple point where these weather fronts all join up.
01:43That could develop into another pretty intense area of low pressure as it interacts with the jet stream.
01:50Look at it spinning up there during the first part of the weekend.
01:53Now, the low itself is heading up towards Iceland.
01:56But again, its weather fronts will be moving across the U.K.
02:00And the isobars will be squeezing together.
02:02So we are expecting another spell of wet and windy weather this weekend.
02:06Just how wet and where we see the heaviest rain depends on this weather front.
02:09And it's not a straightforward cold front.
02:11Got a little bump in it.
02:12We call this a wave.
02:14And these waving weather fronts are notoriously tricky to pin down the details of.
02:19But it could bring some quite heavy rain.
02:21Notice the brighter colours there, particularly over parts of the west and especially over the hills,
02:27the Welsh mountains and the Cumbrian fell.
02:29So areas that have been badly affected by the exceptionally wet conditions during February.
02:34So this weather front, there is a bit of uncertainty as there always is with these waving weather fronts.
02:39And that does need to be kept a close eye on.
02:41Either way, the isobars squeeze together.
02:43So it's going to be quite windy for a time on Saturday night.
02:46And then we're left with blustery showers on Sunday.
02:50So overall, the weekend for many places starting dry.
02:53And actually for a good part of England and Wales, most of Saturday looking dry at this stage.
02:58But then there is that potential for some heavy rain and gusty winds on Saturday night and Sunday.
03:04Basically a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers.
03:07What about beyond the weekend and into next week?
03:11Well, I'm going to show you this chart now.
03:13I showed you something similar this time last week and was potentially flagging up that high pressure wasn't too far away.
03:19But this chart shows that area of high pressure is still just as far away.
03:25Now, if we go back in time down the y-axis here and you go forward in time along the top here.
03:32So these are the forecast days.
03:33And blue means low pressure is likely to be in charge of the UK's weather.
03:39Red means high pressure.
03:40So if you want drier, settled weather, you need a glimmer of red.
03:44And that's all we had this time last week.
03:47At the end of the forecast period, a glimmer of pinky red suggesting that the weather was going to settle down.
03:53But as we've been through this past week, just notice how those pinky reds have just always been out of reach.
03:59If you like, just always being shifted back in time.
04:02So the latest projections keep blue, keep low pressure in charge of our weather throughout next week.
04:09That means further spells of wet and windy weather to come.
04:12As I said at the start, interspersed with brief, drier, brighter spells.
04:17Now, there is a subtle shift as we go into next week with the position of the jet stream.
04:21For much of this week, the jet has been shifted further south.
04:24That's the reason why the low pressure systems have been more moving in across England and Wales and particularly this one coming into France.
04:32But there's a warm and a cold side to the jet.
04:35So with the jet stream shifted further south, we've been generally in the colder air this week,
04:39which has been relatively chilly with nighttime frosts.
04:42The subtle shift as we go into next week is the jet stream looks like pushing a little further north,
04:47taking the low pressure systems also a little further north,
04:50but also meaning that the warmer air may push a little further north across parts of the UK.
04:57So it's still a strong jet stream coming in from the Atlantic.
04:59So it's still bringing spells of wet and windy weather.
05:02But that subtle shift further north may mean it's just not quite so cold when the sun does come out.
05:08And the sun will come out at times.
05:10But the main themes are that, yes, further spells of wet and windy weather are likely.
05:14At the moment, it looks like typical March fair, really, with unsettled, changeable conditions,
05:19spells of wet and windy weather moving through.
05:21But perhaps, as I say, when the sun does pop out, it's getting a bit stronger now.
05:25So it will feel a little bit milder.
05:28That's all for now, but make sure you stay up to date with the very latest day by day details of the weather.
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