10 Day trend – Staying changeable? 04/09/19
Will recent cool and changeable weather patterns continue throughout the next ten days or will Atlantic hurricane activity throw a spanner in the works? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. The cool, changeable, early autumn
00:05kind of weather that we've had so far this September looks likely to continue over the
00:10next 10 days. Certainly nothing as extreme as this. Hurricane Dorian, the wildest weather
00:16on the planet, finally moving away from the Bahamas over the next few days but threatening
00:21the US coast for a time. Then, Dorian drifts north and in fact gets picked up by our very
00:28own North Atlantic jet stream. The question on many people's lips, of course, may be how
00:33will Dorian affect the UK? And it looks likely that into next week, Dorian will travel towards
00:41the UK but gets steered northwards towards Iceland. And by this stage, actually, it's
00:47no more than a typical area of low pressure. In fact, we've removed the name. You can see
00:52it's just an Atlantic low by this time, complete with tightly packed isobars and weather fronts.
00:58This is next Monday but you compare Hurricane Dorian or by this stage, ex-Hurricane Dorian
01:04with, for example, the weather system that's affecting the UK through Wednesday night and
01:08into Thursday, you can see there's hardly any difference. Replaying that, this is Thursday's
01:14weather system, this is next Monday's ex-hurricane and you can see how these hurricanes can transition
01:22quite well into just typical areas of low pressure, just like the one that's coming
01:27in for Thursday. So nothing particularly scary for the UK, despite the destruction
01:32that Dorian has caused elsewhere in the world. Now, Thursday's weather system brings a warm
01:38front into parts of Western Scotland and Northern Ireland to start the day. Ahead of that, sunny
01:43spells and a chilly start in places, especially for sheltered parts of Scotland. But for Scotland
01:48itself, we see the clouds gather, outbreaks of rain push in from the west, a few showers
01:53for western parts of England and Wales. But sunshine returns behind this warm front and
01:58there'll be plenty of sunny spells away from it as well. Although there'll be a cool breeze,
02:03it won't be as windy as it is on Wednesday, mid to high teens typically. Then it turns
02:10wet once more into North West Scotland and then eventually this band of rain crosses
02:15Northern Ireland, the rest of Scotland before into the early hours of Friday, toppling into
02:20central parts of the UK. Ahead and behind it, clear spells, a few showers arriving for
02:26Friday afternoon into Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with a brisk breeze. And by
02:31this stage, the weather front is across southern parts of the country, fragmenting all the
02:36time. It's a cold front, so it will bring cool, fresh air across many places, mid to
02:43high teens typically. And it's fragmenting as it pushes into an area of high pressure.
02:49This high pressure is key for our weather into the weekend because it looks likely to
02:54extend, swamping this weather front, making it clear away, and then a big ridge of high
03:01pressure across the country for Saturday and indeed for Sunday. So Saturday's weather,
03:05yeah, there'll be a few showers about, there'll be areas of cloud around, there'll also be
03:09a keen breeze, especially in the east, but actually many places will be dry, there'll
03:14be plenty of bright weather about as well. Once these showers clear away later in the
03:18day, the sky's clear, Saturday night's going to be quite a chilly one actually, and some
03:23places wake up with a touch of frost on Sunday. Temperatures by Sunday daytime back into the
03:30mid to high teens, and then it turns cloudy again in the north-west as we end the weekend.
03:36So much of the UK dry through the weekend, a lot of fine weather, more unsettled conditions
03:41pushing into the north-west later Sunday. This cold front starts to move in, and that
03:47will once again topple in around this area of high pressure for the start of next week,
03:52bringing a spell of wet weather early Monday across the northern half of the country and
03:56then outbreaks of rain for England and Wales through the day itself. Now these weather
04:01systems are moving in around an area of high pressure, rewinding the clock to Wednesday
04:05you can see the same high pressure essentially staying put during the next five days. And
04:11all of these weather systems are being drawn around it, they're circling it almost like
04:17a cartwheel type of system with these low pressure systems just journeying around the
04:24top of the area of high pressure coming in from the north-west of the UK and bringing
04:30changeable cool weather conditions. And it looks likely that well into next week that
04:36kind of set up, that repeating pattern will continue. This, again this is ex-hurricane
04:41Dorian but you can see it stays well clear most likely of the UK passing through Iceland,
04:47bringing some wind and rain to north-western parts of the country, drier further south
04:52and east where we're closer to this area of high pressure. That's the middle of next week
04:56but later on things get a bit more uncertain because with that high pressure remaining
05:02in place, but also with the Atlantic tropical activity, tropical storms and so on starting
05:08to make more of an appearance over the next few days, it is possible that these systems
05:13will be drawn up around the high pressure and end up again as typical areas of low pressure
05:18and come along to affect the UK via the jet stream. What does that mean? It means that
05:24well, essentially the weather's likely to stay cool and changeable well into next week
05:30but getting the detail right in terms of where these low pressure systems will end
05:35up is always going to be tricky. It is likely to stay wettest in the north-west but there'll
05:39be showery rain elsewhere. However, just like this week there'll also be plenty of drier
05:45and brighter interludes in between these weather systems and where we get clearer nights, at
05:50this time of year of course it can be quite chilly. So, cool, changeable, typical early
05:55autumn weather and despite Atlantic tropical activity picking up at the moment, it doesn't
06:01look like there's anything too much to worry about for the UK weather, at least for the
06:05next week or so. Bye bye.