10 Day trend – Blame it on the jet stream 05/06/19
It’s a wet start to summer – but how long will it last? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. I'm not going to sugar coat it this
00:04week, it's the beginning of summer but over the next 10 days or so there's going to be
00:09an awful lot of rain. Different flavours of rain, some persistent rain, some showers of
00:14rain but there will be plenty of wet weather out there. Of course some places need the
00:18rain but it will also be cooler than average, it's going to be unpleasant at times and sometimes
00:23windy. There will be some brighter interludes, of course it doesn't rain all the time everywhere
00:28in the UK so sunny spells occasionally but they'll be short lived because the jet stream
00:34is well to the south of the UK at the moment. This time last year it was well to the north
00:38of the UK but now we're on the cool and unsettled side of the jet stream. The jet stream of
00:43course acts as a conveyor belt for areas of low pressure and weather fronts and you can
00:49see over the next five days or so it churns up these systems from the west. It brings
00:54them in via the south and in the meantime they tend to pick up areas of higher humidity
00:59from the near continent and as those higher humidities mix with these weather systems
01:04well they tend to come loaded with copious amounts of wet weather and even some thundery
01:10outbreaks. In between the weather fronts there will also be some showers, for example on
01:14Thursday we'll have a weather front close to the north east of Scotland, a lot of cloud
01:18for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, showers but more persistent wet weather in the far
01:22north east. England and Wales, brighter, there will be some sunshine, 20 degrees or
01:26so in that sunshine but heavy downpours also coming through with quite a lot of frequency.
01:34Now for Thursday our attention turns to this area of low pressure which is in that unusually
01:39deep area of low pressure for the time of year, so much so that the Spanish named it
01:44Storm Miguel, it does bring strong winds to the Iberian Peninsula, the Bay of Biscay into
01:49western France during Friday and then that wet and windy weather pushes into much of
01:53England and Wales as we begin Friday. You can see this area of brighter colours moving
01:58north across England and Wales and it looks likely that northern England, parts of Wales,
02:03western parts of England will see 20 to 40 millimetres widely and in some of the wetter
02:08spots 60 millimetres plus. So a wet day to come on Friday, the winds picking up through
02:13the day as well, feeling unpleasant, Scotland and Northern Ireland a much brighter day to
02:18come, some sunshine, one or two showers but actually 18 Celsius in the north of Scotland
02:23ahead of that wet weather. But it is moving north so Scotland and Northern Ireland gets
02:28England and Wales wet weather later Friday and the winds pick up as that rain clears
02:33through along the English Channel, gales possible in exposed spots. A blustery day then to come
02:39on Saturday for England and Wales, strengthening breeze and heavy frequent showers so it's
02:45not good for any outdoor activities planned on Saturday, pretty windy day for the beginning
02:51of June. Scotland and Northern Ireland, fair no better really, it's a wet day here with
02:56outbreaks of rain persisting throughout much of the day on and off in places but a lot
03:01of rain about. So feeling unpleasant in the rain to the north, where we get a break from
03:06the wind and where we get some sunshine, high teens possible, not feeling very pleasant
03:11for the time of year at all. Now later Saturday that weather system clears north, a gap then
03:18before another one comes up from the south later on Sunday. In this gap there will be
03:24some sunshine emerging on Sunday in many places and it will feel pleasant in that sunshine
03:30but further heavy downpours, thunder and hail perhaps mixed in with some of the livelier
03:34showers across much of the country. And then clouding skies and outbreaks of rain pushing
03:40in as we end the weekend across southern parts of Britain. Some uncertainty about this feature
03:44because of course we're a few days out. Suffice to say that it is likely to bring some rain
03:49close to the south into the start of next week. And then we end up with a stubborn pattern
03:55into next week and a lot of uncertainty actually. It looks likely that the jet stream will still
03:59generally be directed to the south of Britain and it looks likely that low pressure will
04:03be close to the south east of the UK, high pressure tries to build in from the north.
04:10What does that mean? Well if that were to happen, and it is very uncertain at the moment
04:14in terms of the weather patterns for next week, but if that happened then we can expect
04:19drier and more settled weather to push into the north west of the country but more mixed
04:24weather in the south at times. With low pressure close by over the near continent, well there's
04:29always the chance of rain or showers and also the chance that we'll end up mixing with higher
04:34humidities to bring a different feel to the weather as well. So a lot of uncertainty over
04:39the next ten days, suffice to say we've got enough weather to talk about over the next
04:43five days and enough rain to think about between now and next week. So good news for the gardens,
04:49bad news for any outdoor activities, stay up to date right here at the Met Office and
04:54you can find those updates via the Met Office social media channels. Bye bye.