the next 10 days promise further spells of wet and windy weather, the weekend in particular looks blustery and next week there could be a tropical influence on things. Alex Deakin has the details
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00:00Welcome along to the Met Office 10 day trend where the short message is get
00:05used to it. It's a very wet Wednesday for some parts of the UK and while
00:10there's plenty more rain in the forecast the next 10 days takes us to the end of
00:14the month and yes further spells of wet and windy weather are expected throughout
00:19the rest of October and in particular the weekend it could get really quite
00:23windy as another area of low-pressure moves in. Next week well there's
00:28something of an influence coming up from the tropics more on that in a
00:32moment. First of all let's take a look at the big picture and the pressure pattern
00:36at the moment we're being influenced by this area of low pressure come came up
00:39from the south it's ex-Storm Barbara as named by the Spanish the remnants of
00:45that weather system bringing a very wet spell of weather before that scoots away.
00:50We're then left with a drying up day on Thursday but still there will be some
00:54wet weather across the northeast but for most Thursdays a bit drier as the
00:58brief ridge of high pressure moves in before another low arrives this one up
01:02towards Iceland but it's weather from swings across the country on Friday
01:06bringing a spell of rain before the next system comes in on Saturday and this
01:10one's pretty lively a more intense area of low pressure more isobars on the
01:14charts that will be bringing some stronger winds at the weekend. Let's take
01:18a look at the three-dimensional picture and add the jet stream to that sequence
01:22and you can see at the moment it's coming up from the south an arm of the
01:26jet stream which is why that low pressure that was named by the Spanish
01:30Met Service Storm Barbara has come up from Spain and France. That's then
01:35clearing away there's not a lot going on in the Atlantic initially with a jet
01:38stream but it does get its act together. Now that first low that comes across
01:41Iceland and brings us some wet and windy weather on Friday isn't that close to
01:45the jet but the next one that comes in on Saturday well that really takes a
01:50ride on that worm of a jet stream as it powers across the Atlantic and it's that
01:55energised jet stream that really energises them that area of low pressure
01:59and it's that extra bit of energy that just adds a bit of uncertainty about the
02:03weekend forecast and the exact position and intensity of that low as it comes
02:07close to the UK but it does look as if we'll see a spell of wet and windy
02:10weather this weekend. Just going to pull out a little bit and show you another
02:14area of low pressure out in the more western parts of the Atlantic off the
02:19east coast of Canada. More on that area of low pressure in a moment but yes
02:25let's focus in on the weekend because as that low rides in as I say some
02:28uncertainty because a lot's got to come together it will be interacting with
02:30that powerful jet so some uncertainty about the exact trajectory intensity of
02:35that low but that cold front swings across the country during Saturday into
02:39Sunday quite a lot of isobars on the chart and that weather front swings
02:43through bringing some rain and that'll be followed by a mixture of sunshine and
02:47showers so yes it could be quite a windy weekend certainly that's the main theme
02:51it should be a bit milder than last weekend but it will be windy with a
02:54spell of rain with some sunshine between the showers particularly so on Sunday.
03:00What happens beyond that? Well the low pressure that arrives at the weekend is
03:04still sticking around through Sunday bringing us the showers. The isobars tend
03:08to open up a little bit into next week through Monday so perhaps not quite as
03:12windy on Monday and there's again a little ridge in the isobars, a bump
03:16there which could turn things a bit drier for a time but out in the
03:20Atlantic there is a couple of areas of low pressure they're starting to dumbbell
03:24around each other potentially forming a very large area of low pressure in the
03:30Mid-Atlantic which will dominate next week's weather now that could bring some
03:34pretty lively weather at the moment it looks like sticking out in the
03:37Mid-Atlantic certainly initially. There's a fair bit of uncertainty because of
03:42where some of that area of low pressure originated from. I'm going to rewind the
03:47clock now and go back in time back to the here and now and show you where
03:51some of that area of low pressure develops from. Yes we can trace it back
03:55down to the tropics and what is currently Hurricane Epsilon. Now it's a
04:02hurricane at the moment at the time of recording it will track its way
04:05northwards and as is the usual case with these storms it will become
04:09extropical sometime over the weekend it will no longer be a hurricane but it
04:13could still bring some very moist and energetic air in towards the jet stream
04:18that could influence our weather next week. So that always adds a bit of
04:22uncertainty to the forecast what happens to Hurricane Epsilon. Now for more
04:28information about hurricanes and how they can influence our weather there's a
04:31really great video that my colleague Aidan McGiven made on our YouTube video
04:35explaining how these extropical storms can affect UK weather so I'd urge you to
04:40check that out. But the main theme is that next week Epsilon will be close to
04:44the UK and so will be influencing our weather somehow. Whether it's direct
04:50spell of wet and windy weather or whether it brings us some warmth the
04:53main thing is at the moment that that extra bit of energy will increase the
04:57uncertainty. Why does it increase uncertainty? Well a good analogy is think
05:01of a spinning top. If I put a spinning top on a table and give it a little bit
05:05of a tweak and as soon as it's spinning stop freeze frame and say where
05:12will that spinning top finish. Draw a circle where it's likely to finish.
05:16Then if I do the same experiments again but give it a much bigger spin again I
05:20have to draw a circle encompassing all areas where it could finish then that
05:23circle when I give it a much bigger spin is going to be much larger and that's
05:26the increased uncertainty. That's why these bits of energy these tropical
05:31storms when they get into our systems add confusion to the computer models.
05:36So yes some uncertainty about next week but however Epsilon influences the main
05:41suggestion is that the Atlantic will dominate our weather next week. Let me show
05:45you this chart now this is the European model run where we run the model several
05:48times and I've shown these kind of graphs before but usually we're focusing
05:53on whether it'll be high pressure or low pressure that dominates our weather. This
05:56one is indicating whether it's more westerly or easterly winds that will
06:00dominate our weather. Blue being westerly and red being easterly not a
06:04lot of red on that chart. Now we start green because that's where we are today
06:08and we've got southerly winds so they're neither easterly nor westerly but after
06:12Wednesday it becomes very blue a lot of blue on the chart as I say for the rest
06:16of the month and beyond. So the main flow of our weather throughout next week will
06:20be dominated from the Atlantic from westerly winds and when that happens the
06:24Atlantic is obviously a large body of water it usually going to bring us wet
06:28and at times windy weather. So that's the main theme through next week more of
06:32the same. It won't rain all the time of course there will be dry and brighter
06:34spells in between but much of the rest of October expect further spells of wet
06:39and windy weather. There are weather warnings in force so make sure you stay
06:43up to date day to day with the details. This is just the 10-day trend looking at
06:48what we're looking at into next week but for the day-to-day details make sure
06:51you're following the Met Office on social media and I urge you to also
06:54subscribe to our YouTube channel and check out that video that Aidan made.