10 Day trend - Settled with night frosts 18/03/20
High pressure has finally arrived, many areas dry with frosty nights. Turning less cold next week. Clare Nasir has the details.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello there and welcome to your 10-day trend. It's Wednesday the 18th of March.
00:05Well, over the last few months we've been in a real pattern of heavy rain, strong
00:11winds with a dominant westerly feature to our weather. However, this weekend you
00:16will really notice a difference. Things have changed, pressure is building and
00:21that high pressure will be with us over the next 10 days in some shape or form.
00:27So here are your trends as we head through the next 10 days into next weekend.
00:33It's mostly settled, although obviously subtle changes. At times we will see some rain move in
00:39across the north and west, stronger winds here from time to time as well. But as these weather
00:45systems penetrate the high pressure, they will tend to dwindle and die out. But day to night
00:51there will be a significant temperature range. It will be cold this weekend, but temperatures
00:56will recover next week. Even so, there's always a chance of overnight frosts.
01:02So let's have a look at the next 48 hours. Well, this waving front here will continue to feed in
01:08cloud and outbreaks of rain. But notice this ridge of high pressure extending across much
01:14of northern England, North Wales, Northern Ireland, as well as Scotland. That will reduce
01:20the risk of showers, increase the chance of seeing some sunshine. But the area is very cold
01:26and you'll notice that in a minute when I show you another chart. It does mean it will feel cold by
01:30night and by day. Temperatures will be below average. So let's have a look at the detail
01:36through Thursday. Here's that front which will continue to feed in cloud and outbreaks of rain.
01:41The rain coming and going through Thursday, a bit of a breeze in the south and temperatures,
01:46well, they'll be lower than the last few days. You'll notice the difference here,
01:50particularly under cloud and the rain. But anywhere from Yorkshire northwards, the air
01:55is cold but also clearer. Showers continue across the north and the west of Scotland.
02:01But inland, it should be mostly dry and the cloud broken. So we should see some sunshine.
02:07One or two showers developing across Newry, Belfast, across towards perhaps even Liverpool,
02:13Manchester and Leeds. But there'll be few and far between. However, to the south of that,
02:18that's when we'll run into that cloud and also outbreaks of rain. The trend for the next 48
02:25hours is for this weather front here to sink its way southwards very slowly where there'll be lumps
02:30and bumps associated with this front always feeding in that cloud. So the cloud band could
02:37shift further north from time to time, as will the rain. But generally speaking, away from this zone
02:42here, you will see a real difference with that clearer air. So here's Friday and yet again,
02:49not a lot of rain, a bit more of a breeze and that rain and drizzle just coming and going.
02:54A frosty start further north and that sets the scene for the next few days into next week
03:00with high pressure in charge. So, yes, high pressure in charge. The air is cold into the
03:05weekend, but we will see some sunshine. It will be cloudy at times and the shifting cloud
03:12transfers from more southern and southeastern areas towards the west. And with that,
03:17some outbreaks of rain, a cold area of air across us, high pressure here. Can you see it just moving
03:25towards Scandinavia, introducing quite a strong wind from time to time, a significant wind chill,
03:31particularly on the east and then those greens just hanging on anywhere from southern parts of
03:35Wales southwards. And here the temperatures will be perhaps slightly higher and then we'll lose
03:42the clouds here, but then we'll gain the cloud towards the west. But this weather front here,
03:47as it tries to make inroads across Scotland and Northern Ireland, will introduce less cold air,
03:54more in the way of cloud. But this high pressure is strong. It's built very significantly towards
04:00the east and that means many areas will remain dry. So, Saturday morning when you're waking up,
04:07it's going to be a cold start to the day, a fairly widespread frost down towards the southwest. More
04:13clouds will keep temperatures slightly higher, but certainly many areas will be dry. However,
04:20as we head through Saturday, you can see here the chance of a little bit of showery rain towards the
04:25south. This is our global model. So, the resolution isn't so high. So, this will be more patchy than
04:31it represented here on the map. And then that shifts towards the west. However, a significant
04:37wind chill, particularly on this eastern side here. The wind's coming off a very cold North
04:42Sea coming in from the continent, but drier air across the eastern half of the UK Saturday and
04:50into Sunday will bring with it the chance of broken cloud, particularly on Saturday. However,
04:56to the west as we see more in the way of clouds. I've taken the cloud layer off here. So, you can
05:01see the wind direction and also the distribution of showery rain. And there's that front I was
05:07talking about, which will extend across towards the far northwest later. The rain never really
05:12amounting to very much through the weekend and the bulk of the country will see drier conditions,
05:19a little sunshine, albeit temperatures below average. And then into the early part of next week.
05:26As I said, subtle changes in pressure. We are likely to see the high pressure just extend across
05:32many parts of the UK away from the northwest where you could see a squeeze on the isobars
05:38bringing with it some perhaps stronger winds from time to time. That high pressure tends to
05:44drift towards more central parts of Europe and then the air becomes a little bit less cold.
05:51And in fact, that really is one of the themes of the weather as we head through next week.
05:56By day, the sun is getting stronger, so we'll see temperatures climbing quite nicely.
06:01However, by night, particularly where the winds fall light, we could see some shallow
06:06mist and fog patches which will burn off quite quickly, but also the chance of some frost.
06:12So, here's the trends into next week, into next weekend. Low pressure sits towards the north of
06:18the UK and here we'll see the most unsettled conditions just pushing up towards Iceland.
06:24But now and again, we will see fronts trying to steer their way across the UK. But as they run
06:29into this area, this slack area of high pressure, they will tend to die out. So, winds lighter in
06:35the south, perhaps stronger from time to time in the north. But where we see light winds and clearer
06:40skies, we will see a frost by day, by night should I say, and by day, some sunshine.
06:46So, here we are in summary. Dry and settled mostly, frost by night as I said, but some warmth
06:54in the sun by day and then windy at times across the northwest, but that's not all the time.
07:00And associated with those winds, we could see some weather fronts trying to push towards more
07:06central parts of the country, but they will fizzle out.
07:09Stay tuned to the forecast and we'll keep you updated here at the Met Office.