Tuesday afternoon forecast 20/06/23
20 June - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern
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00:00Hi there, further lively weather expected through the next few days, particularly through
00:04the rest of Tuesday with some heavy rain in places, some persistent damp weather in places
00:09but also some heavy thunderstorms in places but not for everyone. Now we saw this area
00:15of rain move up during the early hours affecting southern parts of the UK with some thundery
00:19rain moving through London and the south east early on. Now that rain is tracking north,
00:24it's pushing into northern England, it's losing its thundery elements as it moves north and
00:29it will be a damp spell for northern England into south east Scotland as it pulls away
00:34towards the North Sea. Elsewhere, towards the west and the south, skies brighten, sun
00:39comes out but the humid air and the unstable air at the moment will lead to the risk of
00:45further hit and miss thundery showers. Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of Wales
00:50and the south west prone to these thundery downpours, some hail and lightning mixed in
00:55but one particular focus area, mainly early to mid afternoon, is towards the east and
01:01south east of England. You can see these showers popping up on the map there and these could
01:06be particularly fierce thunderstorms with 2cm hail, frequent lightning and especially
01:12torrential rainfall. Now if these come off then there's a question mark about whether
01:17everything's going to come together for these thunderstorms to break out but if they do
01:21then they could be very serious. The air is actually stabilising across the south east
01:26later in the day so it's early to mid afternoon, the greatest risk time for these thunderstorms.
01:32Risk of flash flooding of course where any thunderstorms occur but as I said, nowhere
01:36is guaranteed them even if you've got a yellow warning, some places will stay dry. It's going
01:42to feel humid wherever you are, temperatures in the low 20s, some parts of northern Scotland
01:47could reach 23 or 24 around the Murray coast and 26 or 27 towards the south east of England.
01:54Then heading into the evening it's a drying up process, still some thundery showers continue
01:59until just after the sun goes down and the rain pulls away from eastern Scotland heading
02:04into parts of the northern isles during the early hours but many areas end up dry and
02:09with clear spells through the night, a slightly fresher night compared with recent nights
02:13but still temperatures above average with teens, 13 to 15 Celsius in the south and further
02:20north we're looking at 12 to 13 or 14 Celsius but there will be still some thundery showers
02:27affecting western Scotland and western parts of northern Ireland. They're going to start
02:31to develop quite quickly during the morning through northern and western England, parts
02:34of Wales and then they'll start to develop more widely across the UK heading into the
02:39late morning, early afternoon period. I think south east England mostly avoiding them and
02:44staying dry with sunny spells but where these showers do occur, well they could come together
02:49in convergent zones, that's where the winds start to come together in lines for example
02:54around the south west peninsula, we've seen that happen a few times this year and also
02:57across parts of eastern Scotland. So where that happens you could see shower after shower
03:01but of course that means that other areas will just mainly avoid them. So very hit and
03:07miss once again, not everyone catching a shower on Wednesday, some places staying dry
03:11with sunny spells and in that sunshine it's going to feel warm once again. Temperatures
03:14a degree or two up on Tuesday's values with the extra sunshine 26, 27, perhaps even 28
03:19Celsius in the south east and low to mid 20s elsewhere. Then any showers that do form tend
03:25to disappear into the night and clear spells expected overnight with again temperatures
03:31above average but slightly fresher feel compared with the high humidity that we've seen recently
03:37but so changes on the way later this week, what we're going to see is an area of low
03:41pressure approach from the Atlantic. Now that's going to increasingly affect towards north
03:46western parts of the UK whilst a ridge of high pressure affects southern areas and that
03:51means there'll be a north west south east split heading into the weekend with more changeable
03:55weather, outbreaks of rain on and off Scotland, Northern Ireland and at times Northern England
04:00and North Wales but further south with the high pressure in control, increasingly sunny
04:04skies and increasingly high temperatures with 30 Celsius likely across parts of south
04:10east England into the weekend. You can find further details on our social media channels
04:14but for now that's all from me, bye bye.