Deep Dive 15/10/2024 – Wet and warm then what?... Things could get lively in the Atlantic – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Southerly winds bring a warm spell but also some heavy downpour, what happens next depends on how things develop in the Atlantic. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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00:00It's warming up. It's getting wetter as well. And we have warnings in place.
00:04There's lots to get through in the short term. Plus, towards the end of the week,
00:09could something explosive occur out in the Atlantic?
00:13And it's also the anniversary of the great storm and that Michael Fish moment.
00:18Plenty to get through in this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
00:22Welcome along. My name's Alex Deakin.
00:24I'm a weather presenter here at the Met Office and every Tuesday we do a deep dive.
00:29Using the touchscreen, looking at the various elements of meteorology that have been catching our eye
00:35or will be catching our eye in the coming days.
00:38If you're new to it, then welcome along.
00:41If you haven't subscribed to our channel already, then please do so and do hit the thumbs up button.
00:47Give us a like as well and share the love.
00:49Let other people know that we are on here and that we do this every Tuesday.
00:54Now, this one is going to be particularly interesting, I suspect, for two reasons.
00:59The first one being all the weather that's going on, as I've already alluded to.
01:03But the second one is the brand new interface on our touchscreen.
01:08Now, Aidan used this last week.
01:11Aidan's been developing this over the past weeks, months, done a wonderful, wonderful job.
01:16I, however, haven't really used it.
01:19This is my first time and yeah, it could be fun.
01:23So, you know, stay tuned for the next 20 minutes, 30 minutes or so to see if this old dog can indeed learn some new tricks.
01:31Plenty to talk about, as always.
01:33Let's get on with the bigger picture.
01:35As usual, we'll start with a satellite image.
01:37And yeah, we can see that we've seen weather systems piling in over the past five days from the Atlantic.
01:45Spain's been particularly badly hit by weather systems.
01:47You can see one spun up here and sent a spiral through northern Spain.
01:53Some heavy rain up across France as well.
01:55Similar track, actually, to Storm Kirk from previously.
01:57But notice towards the end, the last couple of days, we have actually started to see the weather patterns rather than coming in from the Atlantic,
02:05just start to drift up more from the south.
02:08So we've changed almost 90 degrees.
02:10We started actually a bit more than that.
02:12We started off with a northwesterly at the back end of last week.
02:15Then we had more of a westerly.
02:17And then for the past day or so, we've started to introduce our weather more coming up from the south.
02:22And that is why it is getting a little bit warmer.
02:25And here's the reason behind that.
02:27It's all to do with the position of the jet stream, as you might imagine.
02:30It's in this very amplified pattern.
02:33It's not barreling across the Atlantic like it often does.
02:37It's in this much more exaggerated curve and it's going way up to the north.
02:43And if anything, that is getting more extreme over the next 24 hours or so, pushing even further up to the north.
02:48So the jet stream, of course, those winds high up in the sky, that's what they're doing.
02:54But if we take off the jet stream, what's happening with the pressure pattern?
02:58We've got a chunky area of high pressure sitting to the east.
03:01We've got an area of low pressure sitting to the west.
03:04But because the jet stream's not pushing it in, it's only making slow progress.
03:09And that means with the high and the winds going around like that and the low and the winds going around like that,
03:14the winds at the surface are coming up from the south.
03:17So the winds high in the sky are coming up from the south and the winds at the surface are coming up from the south.
03:22So everything is being pushed up from the south.
03:24And of course, further south, it's a bit warmer than here.
03:28So we're wafting up the warmer air.
03:30Let's put the warmer air on and see, yeah, we don't need the pressure on anymore.
03:36All those, actually, let's put the pressure back on.
03:38So this warmer air, particularly behind this warm front, you can see that if I just head out the way,
03:43it's just gradually wafting its way northwards at the moment.
03:46So that's why the temperatures are on the rise.
03:50It was a cold start this morning across Scotland.
03:52I know that. But elsewhere, it was a pretty warm start.
03:54And that warmer air is continuing to push northwards.
03:57These weather fronts are, though, pushing in and they're bringing moisture that will bring the rain.
04:01But let's first just take a look at the temperatures, because it is going to be really quite interesting over the next couple of days,
04:08just how warm it gets.
04:10These are the temperatures for the next four days.
04:13So we're already today getting into the mid and one or two places, perhaps high teens come Wednesday afternoon.
04:19Tomorrow, probably seeing the peak of the temperatures across the east.
04:22That's when we're going to see these temperatures getting up to 20, maybe 21.
04:27Could even squeak a degree or so high if it stays sunny.
04:31That's a big if, however.
04:33Then Thursday and Friday, temperatures do dip off a little bit, but even these values are above average.
04:39So, yeah, the warmth isn't necessarily going to stick around too long.
04:43Because, as we'll see, this front just gradually comes pushing in, pushes that warmer air away.
04:51So the warmer air is with us for the next 24 hours or so.
04:55And then that cold front, if we just play through that, will gradually push away that warmer air.
05:02So following behind it, it's not particularly cold air, however.
05:07It's not in a really cold air.
05:09It's still coming in from the west, which is why our temperatures only dip a little bit.
05:11So throughout this week, temperatures are likely to stay above average.
05:16And we can compare that using, again, the new interface.
05:20Let us know if you like this new stylizing, if you like the way you can see the four different days here going ahead.
05:27And these are the temperatures when compared to average, the maximum temperatures when compared to average.
05:31You can see that Wednesday is likely to see that peak with values around six degrees or so above the average for the time of year.
05:40And we can compare, in particular, the nights.
05:43This is quite useful.
05:44So this is looking at tonight, tomorrow morning, first thing tomorrow morning.
05:48Let's put it on the high res data.
05:50Comparing the night that's coming with the night just gone, if you see what I mean.
05:55So how much warmer it will be tonight compared to last night.
05:58And notice, I'd mentioned that frost across Scotland.
06:01It's going to be much warmer across Scotland tonight because that warmer air is coming in.
06:06And the overnight temperatures generally staying in double figures, some places likely to stay in the teens.
06:10So, yes, a very warm night to come tonight across the UK.
06:15And those temperatures staying generally above average throughout this week.
06:19So we did have a touch of frost to start the week, but the frosts now becoming a thing of the past with those nighttime temperatures,
06:25which I think we can show if I'm clever enough like that.
06:30These are the nighttime values generally staying.
06:32Some places staying into the teens in places.
06:35So, yeah, a very mild few days ahead.
06:39But of course, warm doesn't necessarily mean sunny.
06:43And for most of us, it's pretty gloomy out there today.
06:46And if anything, it's only going to get duller and gloomier because it is also going to get wetter.
06:52Let's again take a look at the big picture and see what's happening.
06:56So as we start time of recording, we've got this big bump, this big push north of the jet stream dipping down here.
07:03And high pressure is generally in control.
07:05But what we're going to see as we go through the next 24 hours or so is that that that push this this dip here in the jet stream,
07:15that's a trough and that's just getting closer and closer, bringing with it this low pressure.
07:19It's a slow progress because they're all aligned.
07:22It's not pushing the low across.
07:24The low is just sitting in the dip and that's gradually just edging towards the UK.
07:28But pushing these weather fronts, they're bringing the moisture and that will provide the outbreaks of rain as it comes in.
07:34Now, let's zoom in a little bit on this because it's quite hard to pick out here,
07:40but it's really quite subtle the way that things develop over the next 24 hours.
07:44And this has been one of the headaches for the forecaster over the past day or so,
07:48because as this trough is squeezing together and kind of breaking down, we call that a disrupting trough.
07:54But there are little filaments within here.
07:57Just pick out them every now and then that are generating a bit more activity high in the sky.
08:02This is the jet streams at 300 millibars where the airplanes fly.
08:06But it's what's going on high in the sky that dictates what the weather is down at the surface.
08:11And just those little subtle bursts of energy high up generates pulses of rain.
08:18They create spin.
08:19They create vorticity high up in the sky and that generates rising air.
08:25And that creates the pockets of heavier rain that we're going to see.
08:28So pinpointing exactly where the rain is going to be.
08:31That's been the difficulty over the past day or so for the forecast for tonight.
08:37We have issued warnings, though, for the rainfall tonight, as we will see in a moment.
08:41Just want to show you another thing, because this is what the chief meteorologist, Matt, who was on today, showed this morning.
08:48And this is kind of looking at the same thing.
08:50Sorry, it's a bit messy.
08:51Probably can't pinpoint too much, but that's kind of the point.
08:53There isn't really anything really obvious in here.
08:56There are little filaments.
08:57We're looking for the reds and the purples, areas of relative vorticity that create the spin,
09:02that generate what we call the forcing, that generate the pockets of heavier rain.
09:07And it's really quite subtle.
09:09That's the point of showing this chart.
09:11There isn't really a strong signal.
09:13That often happens when you have what's called a disrupting trough, which is just to go back to it,
09:20where you start off with this nice big U-shape, a nice trough like this.
09:25But by the time you get to, I've gone too far there, by the time you get to this stage on Thursday,
09:30it's really breaking down and almost breaking off into another one.
09:34And that's a disrupting trough.
09:35And that can give forecasters headaches, shall we say.
09:39Having said that, we do know that that rain band is moving in tonight,
09:43and we can show that this is the rainfall accumulation over the next four days.
09:51So we're looking Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday there.
09:54And you can see that, although it's been mostly dry, so this is for 24 hours.
09:57So although it's been, well, it's been a bit damp and drizzly,
10:00but we are going to see some heavier bursts of rain coming into the southwest tonight.
10:03But the main thing is here, I wanted to show you that both on Wednesday and Friday,
10:07it's these western areas that are going to bear the brunt of the wetter weather as it slowly creeps in.
10:13So let's take a look at what that rainfall might look like.
10:17Which one do I want now?
10:18Ooh, let's show the bars.
10:20Yeah, let's see if we can make the bars work.
10:23I think we can.
10:25So these are the rainfall bars.
10:2812-hour accumulations.
10:29Actually, let's do six-hour accumulations.
10:31I think that's better.
10:32So as we go into this evening, notice those bars just jump up.
10:35We start to see some rain.
10:36Let's zoom in on that so you can see it a little bit better.
10:39So we are expecting some heavier pulses of rain to come into the southwest.
10:42The big question, will I get rained on on my cycle home tonight before the rain comes in?
10:49But then if we zoom through tonight, gradually push through tonight,
10:52look at those bars jumping up.
10:53That rain is going to be working its way northwards.
10:56You can see these heavier bursts of rain.
10:58We can zoom in further on that.
10:59So it's Wales, southwest England, parts of Northern Ireland
11:02that are going to see these heavier bursts of rain as they move in,
11:05which is why we have warnings in place.
11:09Issued today, a couple of yellow warnings covering quite a broad area across Wales,
11:15parts of the West Midlands, northwest England,
11:16down across the southwest for those pulses of heavier showers.
11:20Now, because of the hit and miss nature, not everywhere in that zone,
11:23I mean, it's going to be wet, but not everywhere,
11:26it's likely to see those big totals.
11:27But where they do occur, they could cause problems.
11:30And we're looking at potentially 80 millimeters in some locations,
11:32particularly over the hills in the southwest that could cause some issues.
11:37Same goes for Northern Ireland,
11:39southern parts of Northern Ireland over the hills here.
11:40A greater chance actually of seeing those heavier rainfall,
11:43but the actual impacts likely to be not quite as bad here.
11:47So two yellow warnings in place for that heavy rain
11:51that's coming in through tonight and tomorrow morning.
11:53And we're not done there either,
11:55because that rain will still keep coming in during tomorrow.
11:59Let's take a look at this.
12:01Is this going to work?
12:02Yeah, so that's the rainfall during tomorrow,
12:06building up and continuing even through into Friday.
12:11We've got more rain coming in from the West.
12:13So the next couple of days, we're looking at these rainfall totals,
12:15really building up and say across these western parts of the UK.
12:20Can I show just the rain coming in?
12:23Maybe on this one.
12:25Yeah, so this is what's going on.
12:26This is the overview with the rain coming in tomorrow.
12:33There's the low pressure, these weather fronts,
12:35and there's that dip, that trough that's squeezing together,
12:38that's disrupting, pushing these rain bands northwards.
12:43These are the winds at the surface,
12:44so quite gusty winds coming up from the south along the south coast,
12:48particularly the northeast, and they are the temperatures.
12:52And as you can see here,
12:54if we get the sunnier skies across the east and the southeast,
12:57that's where we'll have the higher temperatures, at least 19, 20, 21.
13:00Definitely possible through tomorrow afternoon.
13:02Let's find, yeah, I said there was a 20 on there.
13:04But then we see another pulse of that rain coming up across the southwest.
13:09Again, these weather fronts, it all depends on what's going on high up
13:12in the atmosphere as to where we see these pulses of rain,
13:15but the potential for further pulses of rain to come up from the north
13:19as we go through the course of Wednesday
13:23and then into Tuesday.
13:25And then by Thursday, most of that rain is out of the way.
13:29So there's another little low coming in on Thursday,
13:32bringing some showery stuff to parts of Wales and southwest England.
13:37Could be quite breezy here as well.
13:39So around that little area of low pressure, getting quite breezy.
13:42And as we saw earlier, temperatures dipping back down.
13:44So still above average, but we're in slightly cooler air,
13:48but that's only because it's very warm air that's coming up at the moment.
13:52So, yeah, perhaps a slightly fresher feel,
13:54but I suspect it'll still feel pretty warm and pretty humid on Thursday.
13:58Then by the time we get to Friday, we're starting to see more of a change.
14:02More weather fronts coming in from the Atlantic,
14:05a more classic area of low pressure up to the northwest,
14:08rain coming into the west.
14:09Many eastern areas look like having a dry day on Friday,
14:12but the winds also started to pick up.
14:14Notice you've got some gusts there on the gust graphic starting to increase.
14:20I take that off and we go back to Tuesday.
14:23So that's the bigger picture for the next couple of days.
14:27Heavy rain tonight and potentially for a good part of tomorrow
14:31across Scotland, parts of northern England,
14:33but particularly Wales, southwest England and Northern Ireland.
14:35That's where we've got those weather warnings in place.
14:39Then as we go through, gone too far again.
14:43I'll get used to this at one point.
14:45Let's take the jet stream off that front,
14:48then providing the rain, providing,
14:54this is what I want to show.
14:56There's that weather front coming in.
14:57This is Wednesday night now.
14:58So still some heavy bursts of rain.
15:00Still at this time, much of the east will be dry.
15:03And then as we play through that, that rain starts to pull away.
15:07We can put the temperatures on, showing that cooler air coming in,
15:11but then there's this little area of low pressure,
15:12just bringing some showers into the west for time on Thursday.
15:18But then out in the Atlantic, a bigger area of low pressure
15:22and these weather front starts to swing by.
15:24Let's pause it there and let's take a look at Friday's weather
15:28because that's quite interesting in itself.
15:31By this stage, the jet is kind of losing its north-south orientation.
15:37It's getting a bit angry, pulsing across the Atlantic,
15:41some heavier, some brighter pinks in there.
15:44That's the core of the jet getting livelier
15:46and starting to turn our weather more in from the Atlantic.
15:50This area of low pressure is spinning itself up towards Iceland,
15:52but these weather fronts will bring some wet and windy conditions
15:56into the northwest.
15:57Notice the isobars squeezing together.
15:59And that's indicative of some pretty lively gusts of wind
16:03coming up from the southwest.
16:05Now, that's interesting and potentially disruptive
16:09because we have some very high tides later this week.
16:12I think it's the second highest tides of the year.
16:14So if they tie in with these strong winds
16:17and the swell generated by this area of low pressure,
16:20that could create some issues, particularly across parts of Scotland
16:23and Northern Ireland, some large waves
16:25and possibly some coastal flooding as well.
16:27So that's another area that we need to watch.
16:30Let's show you those winds here
16:35as we go through the next couple of days.
16:39I don't see them appearing.
16:41There they are.
16:43So that's Friday.
16:44There's gusts, there's stronger gusts getting into that 50, 60 mile an hour
16:48category across the far northwest.
16:49And again, because of the tides.
16:52And you can imagine pushing the seas up through this area as well.
16:55That's something to watch if those strong winds really tie in
16:57with those high tides, that could cause a few issues.
16:59So that's something that we're keeping an eye on for Friday.
17:02So Friday itself likely to bring some wet and windy weather
17:05to the northwest, but many eastern areas staying largely dry and fine.
17:09But after that, well, I'm just going to fast forward
17:14to Sunday because look at this, the potential for some very windy weather
17:19away from the UK, it has to be said.
17:20But up here, the possibility, a very deep area of low pressure
17:25and some very lively gusts coming close to the UK as we go into the weekend.
17:30And that is all part of this bigger switch around that we're going to see.
17:35So, again, this is where we are now, the jet doing this big,
17:38highly amplified pattern.
17:39If we just fast forward to Sunday, look at what the jet's doing now.
17:42Much more kind of classic position barreling in from the Atlantic.
17:45Meridional set up where the winds high in the sky are coming in from the Atlantic.
17:52And that is potentially generating quite a deep area of low pressure.
17:56Let's just rewind a little bit and see where that low comes from
18:01for the second half.
18:03Well, maybe not the second half of the weekend.
18:05So this is Friday.
18:08Let's take it back a little bit more even.
18:11There's a little area of low pressure.
18:12Doesn't look much, just sitting off the coast of southeast of the United States.
18:18Let's put the temperature profile on, take the jet stream off for now.
18:21There's some quite warm tropical air just ahead of it.
18:24And if we just fast forward to see what happens,
18:27that low pressure starts to intensify a little bit.
18:31And then it kind of spawns ahead of it.
18:32There's some even warmer air.
18:34And that spawns another little area of low pressure ahead of it.
18:38And it's that which then generates into an area of low pressure
18:41that heads up somewhere to the west of the UK come the weekend.
18:45Why does it spin up so rapidly?
18:48Well, that's to do with what's going on.
18:50Again, high up in the atmosphere.
18:52Let's put the jet stream back on because it's that interaction.
18:55We've talked about this before in a deep dive.
18:56It's that interaction between the jet stream
18:59and the low pressure systems that can really intensify lows very rapidly.
19:04So initially it gets picked up.
19:06There's this streak in the jet here.
19:08That's kind of a bit of a right entrance, we call this, to the jet.
19:12That develops it a little bit.
19:14But it's what happens later on as we go through Saturday that's more interesting.
19:19So if we just fast forward, it crosses the jet stream.
19:25So still a few hundred miles away from the UK.
19:27This is Saturday morning.
19:29Still not particularly intense.
19:31But as it crosses the jet stream, Saturday evening,
19:37it's really starting to intensify now.
19:39There's a lot more isobars spewing out of it.
19:41And it gets into what we call a left exit.
19:43So this is kind of a jet streak, that peak in the jet here.
19:47You can imagine that's where the exit is of the jet.
19:51And that is an area where you get intensification of low pressure
19:55systems due to the way that the atmosphere is happening high up.
19:58There's a lot of divergence high in the sky.
20:01And that creates uplift.
20:03And that generates this area of low pressure.
20:04And it really spins it up.
20:06And you can really see that as we head towards Sunday,
20:10the early hours of Sunday morning.
20:11Still way out to the west of the UK.
20:13But that intensification is really something that we need to watch.
20:17And we call it, we give it a name, we call it explosive cyclogenesis.
20:22That's a genuine term.
20:24It's sometimes called a weather bomb as well, or bombogenesis even.
20:29And that's when low pressure systems developed by the jet stream
20:34suddenly kind of intensify really, really rapidly.
20:37And there's a definition, which I can share with you.
20:41Explosive cyclogenesis is where a weather system,
20:44an area of low pressure at mid-latitude, about 60 degrees or so.
20:49It varies depending on where you are on the earth.
20:52But for our latitudes, if an area of low pressure
20:55drops by 24 millibars or 24 hectopascals in 24 hours,
21:00then we can say that that's explosive cyclogenesis.
21:03And that's what's happening here.
21:05And I can prove that to you by way of Aidan's new fancy graphics.
21:10So we're looking for a 24 millibar drop in 24 hours,
21:1424 hectopascal drop in 24 hours.
21:16Let's come back to here.
21:18I need to put this fancy thing on.
21:20Hopefully this will work.
21:21And this should show the pressure.
21:24Look at that.
21:25It worked.
21:26So that's the pressure at 9 o'clock on Saturday morning, 983 hectopascals.
21:32Hectopascals is equivalent to a millibar.
21:35So yeah, we use hectopascals nowadays.
21:37Fast forward to, what time was that?
21:429 o'clock in the morning, 980.
21:44Let's fast forward to 8 o'clock at night.
21:47Now it's dropped to 970.
21:50So it's dropped to 970 millibars.
21:53Fast forward just another few hours.
21:57And it's down to 952 at 4 o'clock in the morning.
22:01So that is really rapid intensification of that low pressure
22:04because of its interaction with the jet stream.
22:07So take it back.
22:0824 hours.
22:09It was around 985.
22:12Was that 24 hours?
22:13Not even 24 hours.
22:14So Saturday morning, 10 o'clock, it's 985.
22:19Sunday morning, 4 o'clock, it's 952.
22:22So it's dropped 30 hectopascals in 24 hours.
22:26Less than 24 hours.
22:27So that is rapid intensification.
22:29It's the rapid drop of the pressure that generates all the isobars.
22:34Let's take those off.
22:36Let's take those marks off.
22:37Let's take the jet stream off.
22:38And you can see, again, just going back from here, what it looks like.
22:42It's quite, I wouldn't say a flabby low, with not too many low.
22:45But it's, yeah, it's okay.
22:46It's an area of low pressure.
22:48Nothing unusual about that.
22:49But fast forward to Sunday morning, and now look at it.
22:55It's a much different beast.
22:55There's way more isobars on it, which means the winds are that much stronger.
22:59So it's that rapid intensification.
23:00The isobars just pop out of it.
23:02Let's play through that 24 hours, because I think that will be quite interesting,
23:05just to watch it as it moves.
23:08Again, just put, there's the jet stream interacting.
23:10As it comes out the other side, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop.
23:13The isobar's just jumping out of it, suggesting
23:17that the winds are really rapidly picking up around this area of low pressure.
23:21Now, just to re-emphasize, this is all happening way to the west of the UK.
23:26It is something we need to watch.
23:27It's five days away.
23:29The models are in complete agreement.
23:31In fact, the one you're looking at here now, the Met Office computer model,
23:34is probably the most intense with this area of low pressure.
23:37But it is something that we need to keep a close eye on over the next couple of days,
23:41because it is intensifying, and it will generate some pretty strong winds.
23:44At the moment, it looks like the strongest winds will be up to the north
23:47and the west of the UK, but always interesting to keep a track
23:50on these areas of low pressure as they develop.
23:53So stay tuned to the forecast, but of course you're going to do that anyway,
23:56because you're watching the Met Office deep dive.
23:59That's the Met Office's model output for that low pressure system on Sunday.
24:04This is the European model output, and this is the Ensembl output.
24:09We talked about Ensembls before, where you run the same computer model many,
24:12many times, and there's a good video actually about Ensembls and how they work.
24:17We'll put that in the link.
24:19We'll put the link in the description once we've finished this.
24:22But this is showing the potential positions for the area of low pressure
24:26from the European model.
24:27It's called a Dalmatian plot.
24:29It's pretty, isn't it?
24:30Each one of these little circles is when you run the model where that low pressure
24:36system could be, and there's quite a cluster up to the northwest of the UK.
24:39So there's a high confidence that it's going to be somewhere up
24:42to the northwest of the UK.
24:43You probably can't see it too well on that one.
24:45Let's zoom in a little bit.
24:48And yeah, can you see that now?
24:50Ooh, can I draw?
24:51Let's see.
24:53What color should we go with?
24:54Blue.
24:55So the UK is in here.
24:56So that's Scotland, East Anglia, southern England.
25:01So you might have a better view of it there.
25:03And there is Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
25:07Is that better?
25:08Yeah, that's quite clear, isn't it?
25:09That's a good outline.
25:10So that's where all the low pressure systems are clustered.
25:13So reasonably high confidence that some low is going to be forming out here.
25:17But how intense it is, that varies.
25:19The intensity is dictated to by the color.
25:22So each colored dot represents the central pressure.
25:26And I'll go back to this one, because the scale's on this one,
25:30which makes it a bit clearer.
25:31The pinks are the deeper areas of low pressure down to, what, 960, 955.
25:38The yellows and the greens, which are the more of them,
25:40is kind of 965, 970 millibars.
25:43And notice how the greens and the pinks are kind of separate.
25:49So the pinks, the deeper areas of low pressure, are further away from.
25:53I've lost my outline.
25:54I'm going to have to do my outline again.
25:56Oh, it's back.
25:57Oh, it's back.
25:58So the pinks are, he's good, that Aidan.
26:01He knows what he's doing.
26:03The pinks are further away from the UK, and the yellows and the greens
26:07are generally a bit closer to the UK.
26:08And that's a rule of meteorology, where as the deeper the low pressure,
26:13it tends to veer more away to the left-hand side in the Northern Hemisphere.
26:17So the deeper lows tend to veer away more that way.
26:20And the shallower lows, the less intense lows,
26:24tend to steer more to the right.
26:26And that's quite clear there in the projected Dalmatian
26:30plot from the European model.
26:32So I just wanted to share that.
26:34I thought it was quite interesting.
26:34So again, just an area that we need to watch.
26:36Another thing really interesting to show you on this plot,
26:39again, this was pointed out by Dan, who's on medium range today.
26:43So a big thanks to Dan for sending these charts.
26:45Again, I always say this, but we couldn't do this
26:48without the help of the wonderful meteorologists here at the Met office.
26:51So a big shout out to Dan.
26:53He also pointed out on this Dalmatian plot,
26:57you can actually see a kind of stripe here.
27:00You can make that out of the kind of muddy purple-brown colors.
27:05And there are also potential little areas of low pressure
27:08that are perhaps developing on the cold front,
27:11on the front from this area of low pressure.
27:14Let me show you that.
27:15Let's fast forward, show you the chart for Sunday.
27:19So there's Sunday, there's the low pressure.
27:21Don't need the jet stream anymore.
27:22There's the low pressure.
27:24There's the trailing front down to the south.
27:28And in this kind of setup, there's always the potential
27:31along that cold front for what we call a little wave
27:34to develop that can spin up into an area of low pressure.
27:37And that's what that Dalmatian plot was showing
27:39with the suggested dots kind of tracking along this cold front.
27:43There is the potential that this cold front could have waves on it.
27:47Now that will generate a bit more rain.
27:48It will also slow the progress of the front down.
27:52But it's also potentially an area that could even spin up
27:55into quite a vigorous low in itself,
27:58particularly when you've got such an active jet stream.
28:00Because the jet is so active,
28:02if you do get a little weakness on this low pressure,
28:04it could spin up into an area of low pressure itself.
28:07So that's another area we need to watch.
28:09And some models are doing that as well.
28:10So that is another interesting point of note
28:13within that Dalmatian plot there.
28:16So yeah, you can see that there.
28:17Just something else to watch.
28:19They're not as intense.
28:21You know, the colors of the pinky purples at this range,
28:24but there is just the suggestion there
28:26that we may see something forming on that cold front.
28:28So that's another area to watch.
28:29So the potential for some wet and windy weather
28:32as we go through the weekend
28:33into the early part of next week.
28:36Whoa, right.
28:38There's lots going on this week, isn't there?
28:39And I'm just about coping with the screen.
28:41Sorry if it's a bit of a ramble.
28:43I will get better with it.
28:44Just a couple of other things I wanted to mention
28:47that grabbed my attention on social media.
28:50I just wanted to point out this.
28:52I saw this on threads from at Zoom Earth.
28:56They have some great satellite imagery on there.
28:58This is just a cluster of thunderstorms,
29:01a little circulation, quite a small feature.
29:04Small, went high pitch then, didn't it?
29:06Way out in the Atlantic.
29:08And this is just something
29:09that the National Hurricane Center are watching
29:12because it has the potential to develop
29:13into a tropical storm, a long way from land at the moment.
29:17But I just thought I'd show you
29:18because it really shows potentially
29:20just how tropical storms form.
29:23You can see the circulation in there.
29:26Here's some lines I drew earlier.
29:28Some lines, some arrows.
29:29You can see that circulation in there.
29:30And you can see that cloud head,
29:32that thunderstorm was coming out of the screen
29:34and then getting really diffuse
29:35as it hits the top of the atmosphere.
29:37And there's other little clusters
29:38of thunderstorms brewing up to the north.
29:40So this is just a little circulation.
29:42It's not in a perfect condition
29:44for development at the moment, but it may change.
29:48And the National Hurricane Center are monitoring it.
29:51I'd say way out in the Atlantic,
29:52not really near any land at the moment,
29:53but it does have a potential.
29:55As it drifts naturally further west,
29:58it will come across more conducive atmospheric conditions,
30:03warmer seas, conditions higher in the sky
30:05to potentially develop it into a tropical cyclone.
30:08And so there's a 60% chance,
30:10I think the latest time from National Hurricane Center
30:14of seeing that develop into a storm system.
30:16And that's its potential cone as well,
30:18heading towards the Caribbean.
30:19So that's something that we'll be keeping
30:21a close eye on as well.
30:22But I just thought that was really quite interesting.
30:24I don't think I've ever seen that before.
30:26Almost the kind of the birth, if you like,
30:28of a tropical cyclone, really quite interesting.
30:31And one final thing before I shut up for the week.
30:38It's the anniversary of the great storm.
30:42Yes, the night of the 15th into the 16th of October, 1987.
30:46Who remembers that?
30:48I do.
30:49And I worked very closely with a man
30:52who remembers it even better than I, Mr. Michael Fish.
30:55Very fortunate to spend a few years
30:57working with Michael Fish
30:58when I was at the BBC Weather Center.
31:00And this was kind of his night, wasn't it?
31:01Yes, who remembers this storm?
31:03Really intense area of low pressure.
31:06Let's have a slightly closer look.
31:08This is the analysis.
31:09This is the actual pressure chart from midnight.
31:12And you can see the low in there.
31:14Can you see it?
31:15Do I need to draw over it again?
31:16Perhaps I do.
31:17So here's Scotland, Southern England,
31:21and there's Wales and Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland.
31:27The low is just in here.
31:28Deep area of low.
31:29You can see that number there, 960 millibars.
31:33And then, of course, what happened,
31:35it was intensified on its way in through the evening
31:38out in the Bay of Biscay, popped up.
31:41We didn't have many weather observations out here,
31:43which is why it kind of slipped through the net.
31:45There were signals a few days earlier
31:47that there'll be some wet and windy weather,
31:49but what happened was it intensified more rapidly.
31:52And going back to that point I made earlier,
31:54because it was more intense.
31:57Did that work?
31:58Am I on blue now?
31:59Because it was more intense,
32:01it went a little further north.
32:05We were expecting it to head across France,
32:06but because it was more intense,
32:08by rule of meteorology, because it's a deeper low,
32:10it actually shifted further north
32:11and actually clipped across up towards East Anglia
32:14and created those really strong winds
32:17across the southeast of England, causing fatalities.
32:20Many, many thousands of, if not millions of trees
32:23actually felled that night.
32:25Really famous storm, famous for Michael Fish, of course,
32:29but also Bill Giles on the lunchtime forecast.
32:31He didn't do himself any favors either.
32:34Since then, of course, we've had huge developments
32:36in computer models, and it's now very, very unlikely
32:39that we wouldn't spot something like that.
32:40And now we have much better warning systems.
32:42Hard to believe, actually, back in 87,
32:43we just didn't have the method of warning people,
32:46even if we had had a better forecast for this on the night.
32:49So things have improved, thankfully, in the past 37 years.
32:53But yeah, the anniversary of the great storm
32:57and Michael Fish and all that.
33:00Okay, that is pretty much it from me for this week.
33:04Again, apologies if I've been a bit rambly this week,
33:06but lots to talk about and a bit of a struggle with me
33:10and the new technology, but I will get better.
33:12Let us know what you think.
33:13Really keen for your feedback on the way it looks
33:16and the way it feels and the way it works and everything.
33:20Do you like these four graphics, for example?
33:22Anything else that you'd like us to see,
33:24you'd like us to discuss,
33:25please do keep your comments coming in.
33:26Please share, please give us the thumbs up as well.
33:30But thank you very much for watching
33:31and there'll be another deep dive same time next week.