This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
The weather has changed, with high pressure finally replacing low pressure. It’s also turned colder. Will the cold weather stick around? And, if so, is there any sign of snow? And how should we prepare for cold and snowy weather? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern joined by Head of Situational Awareness Will Lang.
The weather has changed, with high pressure finally replacing low pressure. It’s also turned colder. Will the cold weather stick around? And, if so, is there any sign of snow? And how should we prepare for cold and snowy weather? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern joined by Head of Situational Awareness Will Lang.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It's turned colder. How long will the cold weather last? Will there be any more snow?
00:06 And how can you prepare for cold and snowy weather? I'm Adam McGiven. Welcome along
00:11 to another Met Office Deep Dive. We do these every Tuesday. And every Tuesday we encourage
00:16 you to subscribe so you don't miss them in the future. Now eagle-eyed viewers will notice
00:22 I'm not alone this week. I'm very pleased to say that I'm joined by Will Lang, friend
00:27 of the show, Head of Situational Awareness here at the Met Office, previously Chief Meteorologist
00:33 as well, so plenty of expertise with us on this week's Deep Dive. Hi, good to be with
00:38 you again today. Hello. And we're going to be talking about what the signals are for
00:43 the next week and beyond in terms of potential cold, potential snow, what are the uncertainties,
00:51 why we can't say anything for sure when we're looking more than a week ahead. And we're
00:55 also going to be talking about how people can cope with cold and snowy weather. That's
00:59 right, that's my job really. So my job at the Met Office, I'm in charge of weather warnings
01:03 but also in charge of the advice that we give to people but also to government as well and
01:07 emergency services. First things first, did you get any snow yesterday? A little bit.
01:12 I was out about 9 o'clock last night. I live in Taunton in Somerset. A few flurries, a
01:17 few grains of snow on the roof of my car when I went out but nothing really settling. There
01:21 was a bit around though. Yeah, there was. We got a bit in my house and kids got very
01:26 excited about it. Here's the radar that's on a loop for the last 24 hours. Much of this
01:32 was snow. It did start a bit sleety in the south east but actually we got increasingly
01:36 cold air from the east mixing in with it by the time it moved through central southern
01:40 England and then eventually into south and mid Wales, the south west, much of that was
01:45 snow. Nothing particularly heavy but all very exciting for people in the south like us living
01:50 in Denver. We don't see it often. We don't get much down here. So when it does happen
01:55 we get very excited about it. A stark contrast of course compared to the last few months.
02:02 Let's take a look at this. This map is quite extraordinary. It shows the amount of rainfall
02:10 from the 1st of October 2023 to the 3rd of January 2024 compared with the four month
02:16 period of October, November, December, January. So it shows how wet it has been compared with
02:23 the four months of October to January across eastern Scotland. Of course Storm Barber brought
02:29 such a huge amount of rainfall there and we've had other rainfall events since then for eastern
02:34 Scotland and eastern and central parts of England into the south as well. It just shows
02:40 already this month we've seen in places 1.7 times the rainfall we'd expect between October
02:48 and January. Yeah it's been really wet across a large proportion of the UK. You can see
02:53 those wet spots. Again you focus in on things like Storm Barber for eastern Scotland and
02:57 also parts of the east midlands but actually there's been successive weather events, successive
03:02 bands of rain coming through the autumn and over the Christmas and New Year period which
03:06 have really taken things to these above average levels. So it's been a really, really wet
03:10 few months. Yeah and that's highlighted. If I show another map here it takes some explaining
03:16 but it really highlights the track of these areas of low pressure. It might be difficult
03:22 to make it out here but there's the UK, so there's France and Spain. This is the Atlantic
03:27 out here and what this is showing is for the autumn season 2023 it's the anomaly in terms
03:35 of the wind around the jet stream height in the atmosphere. And the blues show where the
03:40 jet stream was stronger than normal and the reds and oranges show where it was weaker
03:45 than normal. So normally you'd expect through the autumn the jet stream to be running between
03:52 north west Scotland and Iceland wouldn't you? Yeah that's right. Mostly the storm track
03:55 will be across the Atlantic. We'll have low pressure systems or storms coming in across
04:01 Northern Ireland and Scotland giving a most of the heavy rain to north west Scotland and
04:05 this graphic shows how it's all been shifted that little bit further south and that's made
04:09 all the difference over the last few months. I mean the number of times I talked about
04:13 south shifted jet stream in my forecast since October, November, December and what that
04:20 made the difference to was the track of those lows as Will was saying. This shows the same
04:25 sort of thing, there's the UK and it shows the sea level pressure anomaly. So the blues
04:30 there indicate much lower than normal pressure. Now we typically have low pressure in the
04:35 autumn in the UK so this is even lower than normal pressure across southern Scotland,
04:41 Northern Ireland, England and Wales. Not as low in terms of the anomaly for northern Scotland.
04:47 That's right and the other crucial thing to throw into the mix here is that if it comes
04:50 further south the low pressure systems then these areas are less used to getting that
04:55 large amounts of rainfall. I mean places like west Wales, north Wales will see a lot of
04:59 rain but in some cases the storm track has been even further south than that. In some
05:03 cases the storm has come from the south west and then curved up through central and eastern
05:08 England, Storm Bebette for example and that's given all that rain to parts of eastern England,
05:13 eastern Scotland as well where they are not used and the rivers are not as used to that
05:16 amount of rain. Yeah and we saw a similar pattern continuing to December so again this
05:22 is the south shifted jet stream in December and the result low pressure this time particularly
05:29 across central southern Scotland into northern England but lower than normal pressure across
05:34 the UK. Higher than normal pressure of Greenland, out in the Atlantic and for northern parts
05:41 of Norway and Finland but yeah. So I guess the summary here is that we've had what we
05:47 call a mobile weather pattern, a zonal pattern in meteorological jargon where systems are
05:53 coming in from this direction, from the west, west to east across the Atlantic and hitting
05:57 the UK and that's what's been the driver behind all of the wet weather. So that explains why
06:02 it's been so wet, we've had a lot of storms, named storms as well. What explains why the
06:10 jet stream has been shifted south and we've had low pressure, a mobile westerly and so
06:15 on? Well to explain this we look at all of the other big drivers going on in the atmosphere
06:21 and there are things happening all the way around the world, patterns that combine in
06:25 a certain way to result in the jet stream being where it is for a certain period of
06:29 time. For our seasonal forecast we've always been talking about El Nino this year and that's
06:36 about ocean temperatures in the Pacific but actually that plays a big part in weather
06:41 across the North Atlantic. It has knock on effects to where the jet stream is, it can
06:45 result on average when we have an El Nino year in the Pacific in getting a wetter, stronger
06:52 jet stream in the first part of winter in the UK. It's not always the case, there are
06:56 other players involved, other patterns around the world but that did look as if it was going
07:01 to have a strong influence this year and that's proved to be the case in that we've had this
07:05 wet autumn and wet start to the winter with a strong jet stream slightly shifted southwards
07:10 from where it was. It's been a textbook example hasn't it this year and we're going to be
07:14 talking more in a moment about what El Nino means for the next few weeks and months but
07:19 before we do that something has changed in the atmosphere this week. Of course we're
07:24 talking about the jet stream and instead of high pressure, instead of low pressure I should
07:29 say it's high pressure now firmly in charge and at first this week we've seen this easterly
07:36 air flow which has brought some very cold air into the south. Well again we're following
07:40 the isobars, so where are the isobars coming from? They're coming from this way round the
07:44 high. Where is that coming from? It's coming from well central northern Europe, originally
07:49 Scandinavia there's been some really cold conditions you may have seen, you know we've
07:53 had minus 40 or something like that in parts of northern Scandinavia. Not that cold when
07:58 it gets to us but it does get slightly warmer as it comes across the North Sea and across
08:04 northern Europe but this is really the cold air we've been digging into from the continent
08:08 so that's why we've got this decidedly biting feel particularly where it's windier across
08:13 southern parts of the UK at the moment. Yeah I mean it's surprising how quickly it's
08:18 turned colder it just goes to show that if you get the winds coming from a particular
08:22 direction the weather can suddenly change quite dramatically. I mean in Devon for it
08:27 to be snowing early evening and settling even just light snow just shows how cold that source
08:35 air is that we saw arriving. But it's not going to stay that cold this week as if we
08:42 just run that forward in fact we'll skip forward a day or so. This is Wednesday so tomorrow
08:48 at the time of recording and what we're seeing here is the high pressure just meandering
08:53 slightly and what it seems to do is it brings more of an Atlantic influence all the way
09:00 around the top of it so it's not raging south-westerly but it does bring a bit more of that Atlantic
09:07 influence and it's worth saying at this point actually that the colours on here represent
09:12 the air at 5,000 feet or 1,500 metres and it looks really quite warm but at the surface
09:21 we've still got chilly air. It's still cold in comparison to what we're used to in the
09:25 first half of winter certainly so while it might not be quite as cold there's probably
09:29 quite a bit of cloud around here so it might not be quite as cold at night in terms of
09:32 severe frost but it still feels cold in comparison to what we've had. Yeah it just indicates
09:36 that anything falling from the sky is mostly going to be rainfall over the next few days
09:40 we'll see some drizzly showers over the Pennines over eastern England and so on but many places
09:47 actually a reasonable week of weather finally some dry. Well again you said the dry conditions
09:53 I mean that's really really important given how wet it's been recently lots of flooding
09:58 around the last few weeks so the fact that we do have some time to dry up for those flood
10:02 conditions to recover somewhat that's really really good news. Yeah but as we go through
10:08 the week of course things start to get more interesting in fact come the weekend this
10:12 is Friday there's a front moving into the north. It's a cold front although at the surface
10:18 as mentioned it's still going to be relatively chilly but this cold front represents a change
10:23 in the air mass again so we're going from a bit of an Atlantic influence there something
10:29 less cold to the Arctic and if you follow the isobars those winds are coming straight
10:36 from the north. By this stage we're into Sunday so it's a relatively slow moving cold front
10:40 it's going to bring a bit of rain but the important thing is it's going to bring a change
10:48 in the weather isn't it by the end of the weekend. That's right again there'll be a
10:51 resurgence of really cold weather I think the end of the weekend and then spreading
10:56 further southwards across the UK in the early part of next week and as you said it's coming
11:01 from the Arctic originally that means there'll be plenty of showers around the coast snow
11:05 showers as well. That's really where we start next week I just want to show you some scenario
11:12 maps these are highly simplified just to make things clear of course as we go into next
11:19 week it's six seven days away so we can't give the highly detailed forecast but we can
11:25 just give you an idea of the kind of setup we're looking at at the start of next week
11:30 and this is how we start things isn't it we've got this northerly airflow snow showers especially
11:36 for those areas exposed to the northerly but actually I love a good northerly because you
11:41 get a lot of sunshine don't you. Really cold but crisp conditions really sunny inland away
11:46 from the snow showers it can be quite nice as long as you're away sheltered from the
11:52 cold and taking precautions. Yeah that's key. Then interesting things start happening the
11:57 Atlantic wants to come back in and what we've got here is low pressure trying to make inroads
12:03 from the southwest and here's where things get more uncertain. Yeah we're not sure about
12:08 the detail of this at all really but what we can tell from all of the different forecast
12:13 models is there is a tendency to start to push low pressure back in from the southwest.
12:19 The problem that gives us is when it reaches and starts to interact with the cold air that
12:24 cold northerly which is already across the UK. So you get moist warm air starting to
12:29 come in low pressure from the southwest and then when it reaches the cold air you tend
12:35 to get snow. We can't tell where that will be we can't tell how long it will last how
12:39 heavy it will be but these are the kind of situations where you can have some quite significant
12:44 snow events for some parts of the UK. So certainly want to keep a really close eye on particularly
12:49 as we head into next week. Looks like we're okay for the right at the beginning of the
12:52 week just this cold crisp northerly but then a lot to look at a lot to play for the second
13:00 half of the week in particular. Later Tuesday into Wednesday Thursday we're looking at this
13:04 different models are saying different things in terms of the track of these lows and so
13:08 on but really you've got all the ingredients there haven't you got the cold air in place
13:13 you've got the additional moisture supply coming up from the Atlantic with the potential
13:18 for some heavy persistent rainfall which then mixes with the cold air and so at some point
13:23 on the boundary you'll have this area of significant snow. That's right we could have a low pressure
13:27 system coming up in this direction we could go sorry I've messed up the screen there.
13:31 I'm always doing that. We could have actually things turning to rain quite quickly in parts
13:37 of the southwest depending on where the track of the low goes but somewhere in between that
13:42 zone in between where we get the rainfall abutting against the cold air that's where
13:46 you can get some potentially prolonged snowfall. Yeah and it's interesting actually if you
13:50 look at the temperature trend graphs for two extreme parts of the country so we've got
13:55 Aberdeen on the left here and Plymouth on the right and what these show is again the
14:00 temperature trend at 5000 feet 1500 metres because that's useful for ignoring the day
14:07 night differences and the noise to do with that it's much more useful at showing air
14:12 masses and so on and general trends. It will be difficult to see the day I understand that
14:17 but what's important to see here is this is Aberdeen and you've got the temperature trend
14:22 it actually goes up through the next few days as the Atlantic influence comes around that
14:27 high pressure then through the weekend this is Saturday Sunday the bold line is the main
14:34 run of the European model this is all the dotted lines in the shaded areas are the various
14:40 ensemble runs so the European model run at slightly lower resolutions than the main run
14:47 but just to give us an indication of the differences in the different computer model runs or whether
14:52 they're all very similar. And they're all saying the same thing in this case aren't
14:55 they? There'll be a downturn in temperatures certainly for Scotland the early part of next
15:01 week or in fact actually over the weekend. Yeah that's okay I'm all every time I'm doing
15:07 it. So then it stays cold through next week and good agreement there for Aberdeen but
15:18 come on to Plymouth the main run there the bold has it turning much colder for the start
15:24 of next week then it jumps up again and that would indicate that the main run is pushing
15:29 those lows in and pushing milder air in. However the extent of that spread there a lot of people
15:37 a lot of disagreement for the likes of Plymouth about whether it stays cold whether you get
15:42 the milder air and so on. Well you could look at that and say that actually the bulk of
15:46 the model solutions are saying that it wants to keep it in relatively cold air at that
15:50 stage but there's a lot of spread as we say so a lot of uncertainty in the forecast some
15:55 of the forecast pushes that milder air some of them don't so there's a lot to play for
16:00 in terms of the timings and the track of these low pressure systems as they come into the
16:04 forecast. And just the graph on the bottom here this is the precipitation so all the
16:08 different runs with various spikes but it just indicates that as we go through next
16:12 week so Monday to Friday for Aberdeen there's just that increased chance of precipitation
16:17 of course Aberdeen in the cold air much of that might be wintry and then Plymouth there
16:22 even greater spikes because closer to those sources of moisture coming up from the Atlantic
16:28 so whether that's rain or snow or sleet is the main source of uncertainty but yeah we'll
16:35 obviously keep a close eye on that. Alex Deacon will have more in the 10 day trend tomorrow
16:41 but that's all we've got in terms of the rest of the week or so. I just want to show you
16:48 this finally and this looks at the next two weeks and really what we're seeing here is
16:55 the probability of different weather regimes or weather patterns for each day so we start
17:00 at Tuesday time of recording go out to two weeks Tuesday and various weather patterns
17:06 are represented by various different colours. The dark reds there are the kinds of patterns
17:12 that we're seeing over the next few days so generally blocked patterns where you've got
17:17 high pressure close to the UK then the blues that starts erratically making an appearance
17:27 from early next week represent that Atlantic influence don't they? So this is the increasing
17:32 chance of low pressure starting to exert an influence from the Atlantic across the UK
17:37 and so what we can see is that increase through next week as we've been talking about and
17:42 so by the time we get to the end of next week it's actually finally balanced as to whether
17:46 high pressure or low pressure is the dominant influence over the UK and the fact that they
17:51 are in quite close proximity means that we've got a bit of a battleground set up for the
17:56 UK where the high pressure and the cold air is never too far away but neither is the moisture
18:01 bearing low pressure systems from the Atlantic and that's why we do have some concern about
18:07 there being some snow events at some point over the next couple of weeks. So it's not
18:10 just that first event with that low moving up it could repeat itself? This could be the
18:15 set up we have for a good portion of the rest of January. With that in mind we've been talking
18:21 a lot about mild air obviously storms, wind, rain, flooding was in the news quite a lot
18:30 last week. What do we need to start thinking about now in terms of cold weather? Actually
18:36 before we move on to tips the most important thing obviously is to step through the forecast
18:42 and warnings and so on. That's right. Met Office forecasts and really keep a close eye
18:47 out for Met Office warnings particularly if we start to talk about snow warnings next
18:51 week make sure you stay in touch with those, change your plans accordingly, that's the
18:57 main advice I think. But I'd also say there's other advice that you can tap into, keep an
19:02 eye on. Health alerts for example from UK HSA for England or equivalent advice from
19:07 the other health agencies of the UK, really really important, some really really useful
19:12 advice there for keeping yourself and your families and communities protected in cold
19:18 weather. Because we've seen that there have been some cold weather alerts issued, what's
19:24 the difference between those alerts and the weather warnings that the Met Office issue?
19:29 That's a really good question, they're frequently mistaken and actually they're closely connected
19:32 because we work really really closely with UK HSA, they use our temperature forecasts
19:38 to come out with the alerts. They work in a slightly different way though, slightly
19:42 different audiences. The weather warnings for the Met Office they are focused on everyone,
19:47 the whole community, so we want everyone to know that there's snow coming along and taking
19:52 appropriate action. The UK HSA cold weather alerts are slightly more targeted, there is
19:58 some really really good advice for everyone and I would urge people to go to their website
20:02 to have a look at the cold weather tips there. But there is specific advice targeted on healthcare
20:07 professionals, social care, the voluntary and community sector and other vulnerable
20:12 groups as well. So being able to target those groups with that specific advice around cold
20:17 weather can really really save lives and that's really important so it's worth taking note
20:21 of those warnings too. Ultimately that's why we do what we do, we do these forecasts and
20:26 try and get the information out there on YouTube and many other, via many other means to keep
20:32 people safe, that's the most important thing. Yeah that's right and then that leads us on
20:36 to talking about the general advice that we give to people through winter and that's part
20:41 of our Weather Ready campaign for the Met Office. We link up with other partners to
20:45 give their advice as well, so that would include, you know probably things that people would
20:50 say are obvious like as we head into a cold snap make sure your boiler is working and
20:54 your heating is working and it's properly serviced, make sure your pipes are properly
20:58 insulated, make sure you know where your stop tap is in case you get some frozen pipes or
21:04 things like that. So that's just in the house but lots and lots of travel advice as well,
21:09 stay in touch with the warnings, make sure you have some supplies with you in case you
21:13 get stuck in cold weather and snow. Loads and loads of advice on the Met Office website
21:18 under Weather Ready. And these useful tips as well that we've got now, weather hacks,
21:24 we'll go through a few now but if you've got your own weather hacks or tips let us know
21:29 in the comments it would be good to hear about those. Here's one, cardboard covers for your
21:33 windscreen wipers. Yeah so this is some advice we've sourced with our partners in the RAC,
21:39 so a lot of people do this already, you know saves the need for lots of scraping in the
21:45 morning if you put these under your wipers and on your windscreen. Another suggestion
21:50 here is not necessarily cardboard covers, a suggestion that you might use some old socks
21:55 underneath the windscreen wipers to stop them getting stuck. Because if they get stuck,
21:59 you turn your engine on, you start wiping the engine, they can get stuck, the engine
22:03 can overheat. Yeah so a little hack to save some time and to keep yourself safe in those
22:08 conditions. And never pour boiling water of course on the frozen windscreen. Not a good
22:13 idea. No, no. Cap and cosy, ah if you cycle in the winter, here's a hack, wear a swim
22:22 cap under your helmet, don't worry about what you'll look like, I don't think anyone will
22:26 care, the important thing is you'll be staying. I have not yet done that one, have you Aidan?
22:30 I've got a balaclava, I haven't tried that one out, I don't know whether that would be
22:34 warmer. I would imagine that's pretty toasty and warm. It would be wouldn't it, yeah I'm
22:38 not sure how that would feel, it would feel, it would have been useful a few months ago
22:42 in the wet rides. I think that one. There we go, I've got a dog, clean paws, healthy
22:49 pups. If you've got a pet. Well again, you know we can look after ourselves, look after
22:55 our families, looking after our pets in cold weather can be as important as well. So if
23:01 you're taking them out and about on their daily walks, make sure that they've got clean
23:06 paws, and they're not going to pick up anything or cold conditions have an adverse effect
23:13 on them. When the paths and pavements are gritted and so on, that can be potentially
23:18 damaging to the paws. Flask up to warm up, that's a good one. Yeah, so this could, I
23:25 mean, there are people who go winter swimming, even at this time of year, New Year's for
23:29 example, and so specific advice here about warming up afterwards, making sure you've
23:35 got a flask of hot drink or soup with you, but that could just be going outside normally.
23:40 You know, it's good to get outside, good for the mental health during cold and sunny weather,
23:46 but make sure you keep warm and have a hot drink afterwards. Absolutely. Tugging a tap
23:52 as well, so yeah. So making sure you know where your stop tap is. It does happen, particularly
23:57 when you get to the end of cold weather events, as things start to warm up again, you can
24:01 get frozen pipes and then they thaw and then they burst. That can happen unfortunately.
24:07 Probably quite a low chance, but it does happen. So in the eventuality of it happening, make
24:11 sure you know where your stop tap is to be able to turn it off should you have a burst.
24:17 Definitely worth knowing that sort of thing. And wearing thin layers as well, this is useful
24:21 to know. Yeah, again, it's probably pretty standard advice. It's a better way to dress
24:27 for cold weather when you're going in and out of doors. Multiple layers, fleeces and
24:33 undergarments underneath, etc. is probably a better way to do it. You can take them on
24:37 and off as you need them, rather than one big thick jumper, for example. There you have
24:42 it, plenty of weather hacks, weather tips. If you've got any of your own, let us know
24:46 in the comments. And just very briefly, we talked about it turning cold, we talked about
24:52 the potential for these battlegrounds events with some significant snow in place. Earlier
24:57 on mentioned El Nino and how that caused such a mild and stormy and wet start to the winter.
25:03 What would El Nino tend to suggest for the rest of winter? Well, this is where I'm going
25:08 to bring in lots of caveats again, because it's still really, really uncertain. So one
25:12 thing I'd like to say is, don't necessarily believe everything in terms of the detail
25:16 you might see on specific forecasts for three weeks' time on social media. That's really,
25:21 really difficult to do at this stage. So be a little bit sceptical. But based on the pattern
25:26 that we've seen in winter so far, which is to have that wet bit at the middle, and that
25:30 seems to be consistent with an El Nino pattern, you do tend to have a colder end to the winter.
25:36 So this is from now all the way through till March. Which isn't to say it'll be cold all
25:40 the way through. There will doubtless be wetter periods, there could even be some more named
25:45 storms. But overall, the odds suggest, based on the El Nino conditions and the other drivers
25:51 in the atmosphere, that things will tend to be drier and colder in the second half of
25:56 winter. Yeah, so things are pointing in that direction, which is why we've got this three-month
26:03 seasonal likelihood of cold, average, mild. And this is for the January to March period,
26:11 isn't it? Yeah, that's right. So this needs some explaining. But what you would normally
26:16 see at a normal, for a normal year at this time of the year, these percentages would
26:21 be 20, 60, 20. And any shift away from that is an indicator of the shift of the odds towards
26:28 one type or another. And there is a slight shift towards cold. In fact, it's more marked
26:35 than that actually, because recent years have been fairly mild in winter. It's actually
26:41 more normal in recent years to have these numbers up towards mild 30%, 40%. So the fact
26:46 that it's lower than that and the fact that it's lower than 20% shows that the odds are
26:51 stacked in the cold direction for the coming months. Again, it doesn't mean that it will
26:55 be cold all the way through. It doesn't actually mean that it will necessarily happen. It just
27:00 means that the odds are skewed a little bit in that direction. Yeah, by looking at these
27:04 various global drivers, you mentioned El Nino, there's also the Indian Ocean Dipole. A lot
27:10 of these, we've got explainers for them on the Met Office YouTube channel, so the Indian
27:14 Ocean Dipole, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex as well, I'm sure we'll cover that in more
27:19 detail. Lots of jargon, lots of acronyms, abbreviations, etc. But they all fit together
27:24 and they're all interrelated, of course. So the fact that the Stratospheric Polar Vortex
27:32 tends to be weak at this time of year is related to how strong the jet stream is and that in
27:37 turn affects how strong the North Atlantic Oscillation is, which is whether we get storms
27:42 coming in or whether we have blocked conditions across the UK. So they all act together. So
27:46 when we look at this as meteorologists and we say everything is favouring colder, thankfully
27:55 drier as well, we can say the dice is loaded, right? It's almost like you load a dice in
28:02 favour of six, you're more likely to get six coming up, but you could still get the other
28:07 numbers. The way I like to think about it is sports punditry. So we might say who is
28:13 going to win the Premier League this year? We would probably have a good stab at it based
28:18 on what's happened so far and what might happen in the rest of the season, but plenty of other
28:24 outcomes as we know can happen. Who's going to win the Premier League this year? Well,
28:29 I'm going to sit on the fence as I do with the seasonal forecast and say I couldn't possibly
28:33 comment. Brilliant. That's all we've got time for. Thank you, Will, for joining us. It's
28:38 really useful to get some insights into how we look ahead beyond a week or so and useful
28:44 for some of those weather hacks as well. Pleasure. And if you enjoy this sort of in-depth look
28:50 at the weather, we do them every Tuesday, as I mentioned, please do hit subscribe. We'll
28:54 have more on next week's weather in the 10-day trend. Tomorrow, of course, we'll be covering
28:59 all the upcoming weather in our YouTube channel. So we'll keep you updated right here at the
29:05 Met Office. But for now, that's all from us. Bye-bye.
29:07 [BLANK_AUDIO]