This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. How wet has it been? How powerful was hurricane Helene? Will a Typhoon hit Taiwan? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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00:00Devastating hurricanes, very powerful typhoons, high pressure and some amazing September stats.
00:08All feature in this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
00:11Plus we have two special guests.
00:14So, yes, lots to talk about. Let's get straight into it.
00:18My name's Alex Deakin. I'm a weather presenter here at Met Office HQ.
00:22And you are watching the Met Office Deep Dive exclusively on YouTube just for the Met heads.
00:2925 minutes of pure meteorology.
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00:50then do please pop them in the chat as well.
00:53Let's start with the satellite image again, showing swirls out in the Atlantic as it often does.
00:59But a couple of things to highlight here.
01:01Well, let's just rewind the fun out here.
01:05Notice the eye in that storm. That is a tropical system, Isaac.
01:11Now, if we run through the next couple of days, you can see that eye kind of fizzles out.
01:15No longer a tropical system, but still out in the Atlantic,
01:20still generating quite a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain here.
01:23Not really going to impact the UK directly.
01:26It's going to be subsumed by other weather systems out in the Atlantic.
01:30But a weather system has definitely affected the UK over recent times.
01:35The swirl of cloud that came marching in and has been bending around and generating a lot of heavy rain across the UK over recent days.
01:44Let's put the radar on and we can see just how over the past 24 hours,
01:47this arm of rain has bent its way around northern England, down into parts of East Anglia and the southeast.
01:53And then it's regenerated itself through the day today.
01:56So you can see there the swirl. You can feel the winds coming in from the North Sea.
02:00If you're on the North Sea coast today, it must feel pretty grim.
02:03I know it's October, but it feels more like January.
02:06That brisk wind temperatures really struggling in the teens, coupled with all this wet weather
02:11that has caused further flooding over recent days.
02:14And I'll show you the September stats in a moment because we have seen incredible amounts of rainfall across England and Wales.
02:21It's not been the same for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
02:24But yet large amounts of rain coming in here, all courtesy of this area of low pressure and all courtesy of where the jet stream is.
02:32The jet is not particularly powerful. That's it here.
02:35But the jet stream is south shifted, as it has been for much of September, as it seems to have been for much of this year, actually.
02:43So a south shifted jet generates more low pressure systems across most southern parts of the UK.
02:48And that is what we've seen. That is why we've got this low pressure tucked in here, still bringing outbreaks of rain.
02:55But lo and behold, it is starting to pull away.
02:59And what is this? You can see on the horizon, a large area of high pressure.
03:03And that is actually toppling in. So although we've got these lows out in the Atlantic, this one, actually the remnants of Isaac,
03:11the jet is so weak and it's kind of dipping to the south. It's not pushing these along.
03:16So what we are seeing now is the area of high pressure to the north is slowly but surely building in across the UK.
03:25So that is going to generate high pressure is where the air is sinking through the atmosphere.
03:29So it's going to mean a lot more dry weather. Yes, it is still raining across the southeast at time of recording and there'll still be some showers tomorrow.
03:36But generally speaking, this high pressure system moving in is going to keep things fine and dry as we go through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
03:49High pressure, say, sinking air. Notice, however, if we just pull it back a little bit, still the ice bars quite tightly packed together.
03:56So if we put the surface winds on, still quite a brisk breeze coming in here.
04:00So it will still be pretty chilly on those North Sea coasts tomorrow.
04:03And also, as we see some funneling in through here, we are going to see some showers tomorrow across the southeast.
04:11So today's rainfall is easing off. Fast forward to 24 hours.
04:15There are those winds just generating some showers down across East Anglia and the southeast.
04:19So it's not completely dry tomorrow. There will still be these showers feeding in.
04:23Still quite a bit of cloud and still quite chilly on these North Sea coasts.
04:28That's today. Tomorrow, while we might, with a bit of sunshine, squeak up into the mid-teens.
04:33But add on that wind and it will feel pretty chilly tomorrow again along these North Sea coasts.
04:38So it is still going to be cool tomorrow. But the high pressure then moves in and really settles things down.
04:43By the time we get to Thursday, sitting over us, the remnants of Isaac in here, we can put the temperature profiling.
04:52You can see some tropical air still left in with that, but it doesn't really affect the UK.
04:56What happens is it gets some, I'm trying to say subsumed and I started to say consumed.
05:03Consumed, subsumed by this weather system moving in here. Let's show that happening.
05:09So, yeah, this low pressure will eventually bring some cloud and rain and wind in from the West by the time we get to Friday night and into Saturday.
05:17But ahead of that, the high pressure will bring a lot of fine weather on Friday and Thursday, albeit with some chilly mornings.
05:25Getting to that time of year where the mornings will be quite chilly, quite fresh and the cold air in place before we see wet and windy weather coming in from the Atlantic.
05:33As this air of low pressure, which say is consumed some other tropical systems, all kind of melanges together into one, bringing some wet weather in from the West.
05:43So that is the weather patterns for the rest of this week.
05:46We are going to see that high pressure dominating, bringing a chill, particularly to the East Coast, but a lot of dry and fine weather.
05:52Could be some morning mist and fog temperatures dropping away this time of year.
05:56Now the nights are longer than the days. Obviously, we could see some morning fog, particularly on Friday morning.
06:02So that might be a feature for your morning commute. But generally, we'll see a lot of fine weather through Thursday and Friday.
06:08Thankfully, across the South where it has been exceptionally wet.
06:12Let me show you how wet because we can look at the September statistics now.
06:19Yeah, you don't need me to tell you it's been wet, but these are some of the stats.
06:24And this is quite a stark map showing just how wet it's been across a large chunk of England and Wales, well above the average twice the rainfall.
06:34And then some 10 counties have recorded their wettest September on record and records going back to 1836.
06:43And some counties, Bedfordshire in particular, recording its wettest of any calendar month on record.
06:49So not just September for any month. But notice the huge disparity, the huge difference for parts of Northern Ireland and a good part of Scotland.
06:57It was drier than average, quite a bit drier.
07:01In fact, generally across Scotland as a whole, only around two thirds of the September rain has fallen.
07:07So, yeah, compare and contrast. Quite a difference.
07:11And that is also shown in the sunshine statistics.
07:15The Western Isles of Scotland, Shetland, all both recording 30 percent more sunshine than average through September.
07:24Much of Western Scotland significantly sunnier than average. Also the southwest of Scotland and the far west of Northern Ireland.
07:30And it's in the south across much of England, Wales, where obviously it's been wet.
07:34It's also been a duller than average month.
07:38And that all ties in with that south shifted jet low pressure systems coming in here and easterly winds generated here,
07:46which bring the sunnier skies to the western side of Scotland.
07:50And that's also why, with an easterly wind, we've seen temperatures below average across eastern Scotland.
07:55Whereas actually for much of the UK, this is the mean temperature average over the whole day.
08:01So although days generally across England and Wales have been slightly cooler than average,
08:06because the nights have been a little warmer than average, it kind of averages it out.
08:10So the mean temperature is pretty close to average throughout.
08:14But you can highlight that with the easterly winds more prevalent across eastern Scotland.
08:17Temperatures here have been slightly below average.
08:20One more chart I want to show you just because I like the pretty colours.
08:23This is showing the number of lightning strikes that we've seen.
08:27You can see that real bulge there across parts of the Midlands, especially down into southern England,
08:33where we've had a couple of low pressure systems just generating thunderstorms across those southern areas.
08:39So huge numbers of lightning strikes there, up to 200 in some locations, averaged over five kilometres.
08:47So lots to talk about in the September stats.
08:50One final graph to show you here.
08:53This is the way the rainfall tracked through the month.
08:56So the accumulated rainfall you can see right from the start.
08:59We were above average, but actually then a drier spell around the middle of the month.
09:03Then we were slightly below average for rainfall before a big jump the last week or so of September.
09:08Significantly above average in terms of rainfall.
09:11Slow moving weather systems responsible for that.
09:14So an awful lot to talk about in the September stats.
09:18You can find out more by visiting the Met Office website and reading our press release,
09:22which has much more details about all of the stats for what has been a truly remarkable month of September.
09:30Another remarkable thing that we need to talk about in this week's deep dive is Hurricane Helene.
09:36That brought devastation to parts of the United States.
09:40As we've been through the course of the weekend, a huge clean operation is ongoing.
09:46And earlier today I was able to catch up with a tropical prediction scientist, Julian Hemming,
09:53who knows an awful lot about hurricanes and typhoons.
09:58Julian, thank you so much for joining us here on this week's deep dive.
10:02Such a big storm fizzling out now.
10:05But talk us through what happened with Hurricane Helene.
10:10What you're actually seeing here is the landfall of Hurricane Helene.
10:14So it's a really close-up view here.
10:16This picture is actually what we call infrared satellite imagery,
10:19showing the cloud top temperature, very cold tops to the clouds.
10:23It was very strong. It was Category 4 landfall.
10:27If you can make out the coastline here, it was coming ashore what we call the Big Bend of Florida,
10:32which is the part which bends round and faces into the Gulf of Mexico.
10:36So the red here is actually cold. These are the cloud tops.
10:39What you want for very strong hurricanes, you want a lot of warmth and moisture from beneath,
10:45but you want it very cold at the top, which allows the strong clouds to develop and rush up,
10:51and then the air outflow at the top.
10:54And so you get this big kind of circulation which drives a very strong hurricane.
10:58So this was actually at landfall.
11:00We've got a picture just before it made landfall, but this is kind of a bigger picture.
11:05So now you can see Florida a bit more clearly here.
11:07There's the eye of the storm, so still out in the Gulf of Mexico at this stage,
11:11but quite an impressive cloud head.
11:13Yes, this tells us a lot, actually, about why we saw such big impacts from Hurricane Helene.
11:19First of all, it developed down in this area just off the screen here in the Western Caribbean Sea
11:25from what we call a Central American gyre, which is a large, broad area of low pressure
11:32which develops in that region.
11:34A bit kind of messy to start with, but then gradually the strong storm clouds start to develop
11:39and it forms into this hurricane, and it's larger in terms of its footprint
11:44than an average hurricane, as we can see from this.
11:48So that's bigger than usual.
11:49That's bigger than usual.
11:50We've had other ones which have hit this area.
11:52I can think of some examples in the past, like Hurricane Charlie 2004,
11:56which hit along this coast, a tiny little hurricane here.
12:01But this is very big in terms of its footprint.
12:04One thing that's really noticeable is this strong stretch of cloud up to the north,
12:09and it was connecting to another weather system, and this meant that there was a lot of rainfall
12:14pushing inland over southeast USA even before the hurricane made landfall.
12:19Then also, Helene was moving very fast, so it moved ashore very quickly,
12:24so it pushed the rainfall associated with the hurricane itself inland very, very quickly as well.
12:29How fast were we talking?
12:31It was moving at about 20 to 25 miles an hour, which is a lot greater than an average hurricane
12:38which might move at 10 to 15 miles an hour.
12:41I think at some point it might have been even faster than that.
12:44But then once it got inland, it slowed down and sat over this part of southeast USA,
12:50just at the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains.
12:53So what happened there was you had all this rainfall being pushed inland
12:58and then sitting over the southern part of those mountains,
13:01and then the rain was rushing down the rivers, and that's what caused the catastrophic flooding.
13:06And it picked up a lot of moisture, obviously, from the Gulf of Mexico, as these storms always do.
13:09The Gulf of Mexico is slightly... I mean, it's a warm body of water anyway at this time of year, isn't it?
13:13But it was slightly warmer than average as well.
13:15It is, yes. I mean, one thing that's been spoken about a lot in the last year or so, actually,
13:18is how warm the whole Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are compared to normal,
13:24and that has persisted right through the season.
13:26Now, we haven't seen maybe the number of hurricanes we might have expected because of that,
13:30because of other factors which were inhibiting them,
13:32but with this one, once the atmospheric factors are right,
13:35then the sea temperatures are very warm to fuel it.
13:39Let's take a look a little bit about the history, then,
13:41because you talked about where it formed and how it formed,
13:43and this is kind of where it's been, isn't it?
13:45This is the graphic of how it started and how it intensified.
13:49Yes, that's right. It started down here in the western Caribbean,
13:53and the little coloured area here is the zone which was experiencing tropical storm force winds,
13:59so you can see how that pushed right across Florida, up through Georgia, up through the Carolinas.
14:04Because it moved so fast, actually, the strong winds moved a lot further inshore than normally happens,
14:10because normally the winds die down fairly quickly once a hurricane makes landfall,
14:15but the strong winds did move a lot further inland than normal,
14:18so there were wind impacts as well.
14:20Were the strongest gusts 99 miles an hour?
14:23The strongest that were observed, yes, were around that figure.
14:28At landfall, the estimation of the sustained winds of the storm were actually around about 140 miles an hour.
14:35It's rare to actually observe those winds,
14:37but that's what was estimated from the techniques we used to analyse the satellite imagery.
14:42So it was a Category 4 storm, and it intensified pretty rapidly as it approached,
14:49it was a Category 1 the day before, and it intensified really, really rapidly.
14:53Yes, it did, and again, that's maybe due to the fact that it was moving over some very warm waters,
14:58not only warm waters, but an area where there's very deep warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
15:05You do get these form occasionally, and there was an area of very deep warm water,
15:09which meant that as it moved over that zone, it had a lot of depth of energy, if you like,
15:15to draw into the hurricane.
15:17The sea surface temperature didn't drop very quickly as the hurricane moved over it.
15:22It's incredible, all these facets coming together.
15:25Not surprising to see that this had such devastating effects.
15:29It was a big storm, it was a powerful storm, the sea surface temperatures were above average,
15:33and moving really rapidly helped to increase the storm surge, I imagine.
15:38We can have a look at the storm surge map here,
15:40because people often don't realise that actually with hurricanes, storm surge is one of the biggest killers,
15:45which is where the sea levels are actually pushed up by the storm due to the fact that it's low pressure,
15:50but also just the geography of it pushing that water means that water levels rise.
15:55That's right, there's kind of multi-facets, if you like, to the impacts of a hurricane.
16:00This was actually a forecast of the storm surge just before it hit,
16:04but it was fairly much in line with what was experienced.
16:08With the track of the storm heading up into the area of the big bend here,
16:13you can see the purple areas showing the highest storm surge, which are marked here as 15 to 20 feet.
16:18I think there's particularly an area around here, Cedar Key,
16:21saw some incredibly high storm surge and some real severe damage from that.
16:26What we do get with the hurricanes is that the storm surge tends to be all on the,
16:30for Northern Hemisphere hurricanes, on the right-hand side.
16:33The track of the storm was up here and all the strongest storm surge was this side.
16:37In fact, if you went a little bit, just a little bit to the other side of the hurricane,
16:40there was virtually no storm surge at all.
16:42You can see it because they made a landfall here, didn't they?
16:45It's primarily because the winds are circulating that way, so they're pushing all the water onshore that way.
16:5115 feet, that's what, five metres.
16:54That's just raising the water level by five metres above where it would be normally.
16:59Just imagine that. No wonder there's so much inundation around that.
17:03That was the first impact.
17:05We talked about the winds a little bit, over 100 mile an hour winds sustained,
17:09and the rainfall, which was just incredible, the amount of rainfall.
17:13Again, this is a forecast, but just showing the areas that were affected.
17:17This is actually the observed amounts over a three-day period.
17:20Just looking at the colours, you can see where the heaviest rainfall was.
17:25In fact, it was a long way inland, right over the western parts of North Carolina here.
17:30If you can make out some of these figures, the highest value was marked on here.
17:34It's just on the screen there. It was 13 inches.
17:3613 inches, which is 750 millimetres.
17:39That was a kind of extreme, but generally, right across this area,
17:43there was a lot of places with 10 to 20 inches of rain.
17:46That's 250 to 500 millimetres of rain.
17:49For comparison, Essex, parts of Essex gets 500 millimetres a year.
17:53This is incredible amounts of rainfall.
17:56The other crucial thing is where it fell.
17:58This part here, where we had the highest rainfall totals,
18:02is right at the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains.
18:05All that water was cascading down the mountains into the rivers below.
18:10That's what was causing the devastating flooding that we saw.
18:16It's a combination of being a powerful storm and the speed that it was moving.
18:20It had more momentum that helped to take it further inland as well.
18:23That's right. That enabled it to get so far inland after landfall.
18:27But then it ground to a halt.
18:29It did, yes.
18:30That was to do with what was going on.
18:32It was blocked by another high-pressure system further north.
18:34It blocked it from moving further north.
18:36It gradually wound down, but there was still lots of rain to come, as it did so.
18:40A combination of factors just created this incredible storm.
18:46Obviously, the situation is very much ongoing in the United States.
18:50The storm itself has now eased.
18:52It's just a lump of cloud now, really.
18:54But absolutely phenomenal amounts of rainfall, devastating winds,
18:58and that storm surge just combining to make Helene something we won't forget in a hurry.
19:04That's not the only storm that we're talking about today, however,
19:08because there is another one, potentially dropping similar amounts of rain,
19:12in the other side of the world, in the Western Pacific.
19:15Let's take a look at that.
19:17We'll take a look at it, first of all, on our pressure sequence here.
19:20If we zoom out and head over to the Western Pacific, where it is, of course, nightfall,
19:26and down, just clearing away from the Philippines,
19:29this area of low pressure here is actually Typhoon Krathong.
19:34Am I pronouncing that right?
19:38That's sitting between the Philippines and Taiwan at the moment.
19:41Quite a powerful storm.
19:43It is, again. This is around Category 4,
19:45so it's actually similar to the strength of Hurricane Helene at landfall.
19:49The critical thing with this is that it's very slow-moving.
19:52It formed just off to the northeast of the Philippines,
19:56has drifted very, very slowly west over the last few days,
19:59so it's now sitting south of Taiwan.
20:02But the critical thing is where it goes next.
20:05We think the most likely scenario is that it does a very slow turn northwards and hits Taiwan,
20:11but it's possible that it might do something different.
20:14Let's take a look at some of the scenarios.
20:16Well, actually, first of all, this is the current radar, so that's the actual radar, where it is.
20:20Yeah, this is the radar showing the rainfall.
20:22I have a storm quite clearly.
20:24And one thing we do find with typhoons that hit Taiwan
20:27is that they can produce absolutely enormous amounts of rainfall.
20:31One of the reasons for that is on the east side of the island,
20:35you've got this very, very high ground,
20:38and if you've got the storm with the...
20:40If it's coming in from this direction,
20:42all the rainfall is being pushed into those mountains,
20:45and that causes an effect, what we call an orographic effect,
20:48which means that it rains out huge amounts of moisture from the depth of the typhoon.
20:54You've got the storm, you've got the depth of the typhoon, but you've got the...
20:57It's unusual with typhoons hitting Taiwan to get in the region of 500 to 1,000 millimetres.
21:03And these are the projections from yesterday, it has to be said,
21:06from three main computer models,
21:09the Met Office model here,
21:12ECMWF, the European model here, and the American model here.
21:15And this is what they were suggesting yesterday.
21:17Quite tricky to pick out, but Taiwan is in here,
21:20so you can just about make it out there.
21:22And these white colours are anything above 500 millimetres of rain.
21:26And actually there's 1,000 there, picked out by the Met Office model,
21:30suggesting we could see 1,000 millimetres of rain across that south-eastern quarter of Taiwan,
21:35and the other models also highlighting huge amounts of rainfall possible.
21:39That was when the models were in agreement yesterday,
21:42but actually since then, overnight, they've kind of gone a bit awry in their projections.
21:49I think the problem is that because it's moving so slowly,
21:53it's in a very slack steering current or steering flow.
21:57If a typhoon or a hurricane is moving very fast,
22:01that's because the upper-level winds that are steering it are pushing it along,
22:05and sometimes that gives us a fairly certain forecast of where the storm's going to go.
22:11Now if you've got one like this, which is moving very, very slowly,
22:14and it's got competing factors all around it, kind of want to move it one way and the other,
22:19sometimes that can make the forecast much more tricky.
22:22It seems as if that might be the case with this one,
22:24because although in the last couple of days we thought that it was going to turn and go into Taiwan,
22:30there are some model predictions which are suggesting something different.
22:34This is where what we call ensemble forecasting comes in,
22:38because what we do, we take a model and we kind of change the initial state of the model slightly,
22:44run it multiple times, and see whether all the tracks are the same
22:48or whether they actually diverge a lot, because there's a lot of uncertainty.
22:51And in this case there's quite a bit of uncertainty.
22:53This map shows the latest forecast from the American Global Model, or their ensemble,
23:00and all these different tracks are different ensemble members,
23:03and you can see a lot of them are going...
23:05Quite a few of them are still taking it across Taiwan.
23:08Quite a few of them are actually taking it westwards towards Hong Kong
23:11and even further towards Hainan Island.
23:13180 degree difference between some of those tracks.
23:16The different colours, I should say.
23:17Sorry, I couldn't get that all on there to show,
23:19just because I wanted to show the different potential tracks,
23:21but the different colours represent the different central pressures, don't they?
23:24So the yellows are the deeper loads.
23:26Yes, so one thing we're fairly certain of is that it will gradually weaken
23:30over the next few days in terms of its wind strength.
23:33If it hits Taiwan it will still produce a lot of rainfall,
23:36but because it's sitting in much the same place,
23:39often tropical cyclones do weaken if they're very slow moving,
23:43because they start to draw up cooler waters from underneath.
23:47But this just illustrates the uncertainty in the forecast,
23:50and that's one of the reasons why we often use ensembles.
23:53This one is the one from the European Centre,
23:56which doesn't have quite so many tracks going the other way.
23:59It has more going towards Taiwan,
24:01but again shows us quite a bit of uncertainty.
24:03So the current thinking is there's a higher likelihood of not that it will hit Taiwan,
24:08but we have to bear in mind there's an option that it might go in the other direction.
24:12One of the ways ensembles could be used is actually you can calculate
24:15the number of them that are hitting Taiwan, work out a percentage from that.
24:19So say if 70% of the ensembles are going that way then you could be 70% sure,
24:23but that's decreased, isn't it, that percentage compared to what we saw yesterday.
24:28So that's definitely one to watch,
24:30because the potential, as we've seen, for similar amounts of rainfall
24:33that we saw across Haleen, a different storm in the fact that it's more slow moving,
24:37and whereas Haleen was fast it was easier to predict its actual path,
24:41this one is the opposite also.
24:43But also weakening as it does so because of the effects of the sea surface temperatures.
24:47OK, one more storm before we go, Julia.
24:51Well, at least one more, because let's go back to the satellite picture.
24:55And actually this is the remnants of Isaac,
24:58but we're not going to talk about Isaac today.
25:00Further south there's Joyce, which is this messy system here as well.
25:04So there are a couple of decaying systems out in the Atlantic,
25:08but there is another one which is potentially very interesting indeed,
25:13and that's developing further south, out in the southern Atlantic.
25:17If we fast forward to, is it this one here?
25:21Yeah, this is Kirk.
25:24It's Tropical Storm Kirk, as it is at the moment,
25:26and the computer models are suggesting it's going to become a very powerful hurricane
25:31in the central Atlantic, but thankfully we expect it,
25:35as it moves across the central Atlantic, to turn north.
25:38So this one is not going to go towards the Caribbean or the USA.
25:41The Caribbean is just here.
25:43So we don't expect any land impacts from this,
25:45but it will become very powerful because in this area, as I've said earlier,
25:49the sea temperatures right across the Atlantic are very warm,
25:53and there are a couple of degrees warmer than average in this region.
25:57So even at higher latitudes the sea temperatures are around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius,
26:02and this hurricane, as it will be, is going to tap into that and become very intense.
26:07We do actually have the possibility of another storm behind it,
26:10which hasn't yet developed, but that's another one to watch.
26:13But I think the thing to emphasise with this is that we do expect it to turn northwards
26:18and not directly impact any of the areas, for example, that were affected by Helene.
26:23But then it could interfere with model predictions and a longer range across the Atlantic,
26:28and definitely something we'll need to keep a close eye on.
26:31By the end of next week, so even 8, 9, 10 days from now, it will still be up there.
26:37By then it will be an extra tropical system,
26:40but what it will be doing is still open to question because it's so far away
26:44that there's a lot of different options as to what it could do and where it could go.
26:48Something to complicate the longer range forecast for sure,
26:52and our longer range forecast, that will be on YouTube tomorrow in our 10-day trend.
26:57I think it's Aidan recording that tomorrow.
26:59So interesting to see whether any of these tropical systems
27:02actually interfere with the UK weather in the longer term.
27:05So that is definitely something to keep an eye on.
27:07You talk about the sea surface temperature here, 29, 30 degrees,
27:10and it needs to be above, the whole thing about tropical cyclones,
27:13the sea surface temperature needs to be above 26 degrees Celsius.
27:17It's around 26, 27. It's not a hard and fast rule.
27:20It depends on other conditions.
27:22Sometimes you can get storms which will develop over lower sea temperatures than that.
27:26But typically, yes, 26, 27.
27:28So when you get up to 29, 30, you've got plenty of fuel for developing a strong hurricane,
27:34as we expect this one to be.
27:36Brilliant. One to watch for sure.
27:38Julian, absolutely fascinating.
27:40Thank you so much for talking about the past, the present and the future.
27:43Storms over the next week or so.
27:45Thank you very much for joining me today.
27:47You're welcome.
27:48As always, a real treat to talk to Julian.
27:51I could talk to him all day.
27:53But I did promise you two special guests at the start of this week's Deep Dive.
27:59So with a little bit of a fanfare, here comes our second guest.
28:04Welcome along, Honor.
28:06Hello.
28:07Because you are joining the presenting team.
28:10I am. That is right.
28:12This is very exciting.
28:13So keep your eyes peeled for Honor on our screens more often.
28:18Will you be doing the Deep Dive at some point in the future?
28:21I'll be doing a Deep Dive, yes.
28:23So stay tuned for that one.
28:25Honor is in covering for Annie, who's obviously on maternity leave.
28:29So she'll be with us for at least a year.
28:31So plenty more of Honor to come.
28:33What are you looking forward to most?
28:35Oh, I feel like I should say the Deep Dive, but I'm not sure.
28:39A bit intimidated with the screen, isn't it?
28:41Yeah, I think once I get the hang of the screen, I'll be okay.
28:44Yeah, you'll be fine.
28:45And you'll be doing the 10-day trend and all of those things.
28:48Not tomorrow, though.
28:49Aidan is doing the 10-day trend tomorrow.
28:51So make sure you catch that.
28:53That'll be available on Wednesday afternoon.
28:55A good way so you don't avoid the 10-day trend or any of our broadcasts
29:00is, of course, to hit subscribe and give us a like as well.
29:03But thank you very much for watching this week's Deep Dive.
29:06Keep your questions, keep your comments coming in.
29:09And we will see you again soon.