This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. This weeks wet and windy weather plus an explainer on lee waves. Also a Christmas forecast. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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00:00Hello there and welcome to this week's Deep Dive. My name's Anna Criswick, I'm a
00:05meteorologist and presenter here at the Met Office. I'm one of the new
00:09presenters, this is only my second Deep Dive video but thank you so much for
00:13your lovely comments on the first one. We've got lots to unpack, even the
00:17weather this week there's quite a lot going on. We've got some heavy and
00:20persistent outbreaks of rain at times, some quite strong gusty winds too. We
00:25already have a couple of yellow Met Office warnings in force for strong
00:29winds as we head through tonight and into tomorrow. So we can talk about
00:33those in some more detail and we're also going to talk about temperatures this
00:37week too. We're going to see a slightly cold dip in temperatures as we head
00:41towards the middle part of the week and then turning more towards average,
00:44perhaps slightly milder in some places as we head into the weekend and into
00:48next week. So leading up to the Christmas period. Speaking of Christmas, we're also
00:53going to unpack the Christmas forecast. So if you are dreaming of a white
00:57Christmas, well we can find out today what the likelihood of that is going to
01:02be. And also alongside the weather this week, obviously some quite strong and
01:07gusty winds at times and we're going to just explore a little bit. Obviously it's
01:11going to be quite hazardous at times, that type of weather, particularly on the lead
01:14up to Christmas, lots of people traveling around. But for you avid cloud spotters
01:18out there, we could see some quite interesting cloud formations at times. We
01:23might see some interesting satellite imagery. So I'm just going to go over a
01:25little bit about some mountain waves and how those form and how clouds can
01:30form in association with those as well. So the weather this week, we'll talk
01:35about Christmas and we've got a little bit of theory in there as well for all
01:38you MetHeads watching. So to start off with then, let's just have a quick
01:43look at what's happened over the last few days. It's been rather cloudy and
01:47gloomy and grey at times, not quite the sort of lead up to Christmas
01:51forecast that you'd really want. Particularly in the northwest of
01:54Scotland, they really drew the short straw in terms of frontal systems
01:58moving in. They saw plenty of outbreaks of rain all through the weekend and this
02:02really added up in terms of rainfall totals. You can see just from the brighter
02:05colours there from the radar imagery. So it was the northwest of Scotland that
02:10really caught the brunt of those weather systems moving in from the
02:15northwest. It was one after the other and we saw quite a lot of
02:19rainfall in this part of the country. Even in western areas of England and
02:23Wales, we did see some periods of rain and drizzles and quite cloudy skies at
02:28times. Best of the weather generally was across central and southeastern parts of
02:32the UK where it did generally brighten up as we headed in over the weekend. So
02:38what's in store for the weather this week then? So we'll start off by
02:42taking a look at the bigger picture for one on the far
02:47left where we can see those frontal systems, the pink colours, that's just the
02:51jet stream and also these white colours, that's the isobars, so the pressure, what
02:55we're expecting through the course of the week. Here's the kind of general
02:59weather set up, so the cloud, outbreaks of rain, this is going to show our wind
03:03direction here and also any gusts and on my far right here that's going to be the
03:08temperatures are expecting this week as well. So let's get into it. So we can
03:11already see from the beginning, so this is a Tuesday afternoon, so we can
03:16already see low pressure generally dominating to the west. That's going to
03:21feed in some frontal systems which we're already starting to see move into
03:24parts of Northern Ireland, western parts of Scotland, even some drips and drabs
03:29just moving into parts of southern parts of Wales and southwest England. So
03:33through the course of this afternoon and into tonight we're going to see more and
03:38more of that rain feed its way in. This could be turning quite heavy and
03:42persistent at times as it moves its way from east to west across the country,
03:46quite erratically at times, so we could see some quite heavy pulses of rain
03:49along that cold front. And we can see as well from the squeeze and the
03:54isobars here, that means some gusty weather on the way which we can see
03:57quite clearly here on the sort of wind field. So these pink colours are just
04:01showing kind of gust fields as we move through into tonight. So it's not only
04:06going to turn rather wet, it's going to turn quite blustery too with a couple of
04:10weather warnings and forceful strong winds into tonight and through into
04:14tomorrow, which I'll come on to in more detail in a moment. So this
04:19frontal system is set to move its way through over the course of tonight,
04:24moving its way through all the way, sort of clearing the far southeast during the
04:29early hours of tomorrow morning. But even behind it, still plenty of isobars on
04:33that chart, so still plenty of gusty weather as we move through. Then we see a
04:40brief, sort of brief quieter spell in terms of dry weather, still plenty of
04:45showers starting to feed into the far northwest coast of Scotland and still
04:49plenty of gusty weather in the far north of Scotland too. So particularly for the
04:53Northern Isles, Shetland for example, seeing some quite gusty winds at times,
04:56perhaps sort of between 50 to 60 miles per hour. So although it's starting to
05:01turn a bit drier by the time we reach midday on Wednesday, it is still going to
05:05be fairly blustery. Then it's all eyes to this next area of low pressure down to
05:09the far southwest of the country, once again bringing in further outbreaks of
05:14rain. But this time, rather than being more confined to the far northwest of
05:16the country, it's going to be coming in from a southwesterly direction. So heavy
05:21outbreaks of rain starting to skirt their way across much of England and
05:24Wales through the course of Wednesday and once again still some quite strong
05:28blustery winds underneath those cloudier skies too. We almost end up with a bit of
05:34a north-south split in terms of weather, where it's going to be a bit colder just
05:38to the north. Parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of Northern England, colder.
05:43We may see a few more sunny spells but still plenty of showers, particularly
05:46around western coast starting to move through. Across the south however, still
05:51staying largely mild. Highs of around 13 Celsius by the time we reach
05:56Wednesday afternoon. But cloudy outbreaks of rain and this heavy at times. We could
06:01start to see some significant rainfall totals just start to tot up across parts
06:05of the south too. So there's not currently a rainfall warning out but there's a
06:08chance we could see one as we head into tomorrow. So do keep an eye on our website
06:12for those. So persistent and heavy outbreaks of rain at times through the
06:17course of Wednesday and this low pressure does look like it's lingering
06:20on through much of Wednesday night through into Thursday. But it does
06:23eventually clear its way through and we start to see more of those the sort of
06:27showery regime move more and more further south across parts of England
06:31and Wales by the time we reach early Thursday morning. So a few more a few
06:36more clear spells by the time we reach Thursday. Now another thing you may
06:41notice it is still going to be fairly gusty. Still plenty of ice bars on the
06:45chart so still some fairly blustery weather on its way. So when you do start
06:48to see these showers move through they could be quite blustery and where it's
06:52going to be quite cold just to the north of Scotland could see some some flurries
06:55of snow mainly across high ground and parts of Scotland. Still with those
06:59strong winds confined to the northern isles of Scotland too. So still fairly
07:03strong winds located here. But another thing you might notice is that our wind
07:09direction then becomes more of a northerly. So this is when we're going to
07:12start to see a bit more of that colder spell of weather moves through. So this
07:16is during the early hours of Thursday. Now with the blustery weather that's
07:20going to stop any widespread frost formation but it is going to be feeling
07:25cold and when we do have quite strong winds and a cold air mass as well that
07:29can really add on to the wind chill of the temperatures too. So if I just drag
07:32this through Thursday, Thursday afternoon you can see these kind of peak
07:37temperatures are only sort of around 7 to 8 Celsius in the south 5 to 6 in the
07:43north compared to earlier in the week where we were seeing highs of around 13
07:47to 14 in the south which is above average for the time of year. So this is
07:51going to be cold I think average for the time of year in the UK is about 7
07:54degrees or so. So temperatures returning more towards average a bit lower in some
07:58places but alongside those strong gusty winds and that wind chill that's going
08:02to make things feel even chillier still. So it's going to be quite a different
08:06change of feel by the time we reach Saturday. We will probably see plenty
08:10more sunshine but you'll have to kind of wrap up warm to enjoy it. But if you're
08:14not a fan of kind of the cloudy skies and the rain then this might be a kind
08:19of welcome difference as we head into Thursday. So a bit more sunshine around a
08:23few showers around coasts but feeling quite cold as we head into Thursday and
08:28then it's later on Thursday night through into Friday. Just drag this
08:32forward where once again we see a return of the cloud and rain. So this is the
08:37early hours of Friday. So once again area of low pressure just situated over
08:41Iceland that's going to drag in a few more frontal systems. So once again some
08:45outbreaks of rain moving through this time returning and hitting the northwest
08:49of the country first but still with that chilly weather by the time we reach
08:53Friday as well. So this will move its way southeastwards through the course of
08:57the day. Once again kind of moving erratically towards towards the
09:01southeast but we could see some quite heavy pulses on this rain as it moves
09:04through. But to the far north and to the far south of this once again there should
09:07be plenty of dryish weather around particularly across the far south and
09:11southeast. You may see a few sunny spells break through the cloud as well and to
09:15the north of this there will be some sunny spells around but plenty of
09:17blustery showers once again returning. So though there will be some drier weather
09:22around to the far north and south of this but those outbreaks of rain are
09:25moving their way southeastwards as we head through into Friday as well. So
09:29changeable is probably a good a good word to use for the for the weather this
09:33week. Once again a slight ridge as we head later into Friday and Saturday. So
09:38once again another slightly calmer spell but then through into Saturday we are
09:42expecting it to turn unsettled once again. You can notice if I draw your
09:45attention to the gust fields once again we're going to see a return of that very
09:49blustery weather as we head into the weekend. Once again frontal systems
09:53bringing in some outbreaks of rain some showers behind and we've still got that
09:57fairly chilly weather pattern as well moving through on to Saturday. So it's
10:01going to be quite unsettled as we head into the weekend Saturday and Sunday
10:05likely seeing some pretty blustery showers actually. So plenty of showers
10:09these can sometimes merge bringing longer spells of rain at times they
10:12could be heavy and they probably most likely falling as snow across high
10:17ground too. Still once again plenty of ice bars on the chart we can see from
10:21the gust fields here still a chance we could see some quite strong winds at
10:24times generally confined to sort of western coasts of Scotland, western and
10:29northern coast of Northern Ireland. We might just see some brush through the
10:32Irish Channel as well and even eastern parts of England and Scotland could see
10:36some quite blustery weather. So once again Saturday through into Sunday quite
10:41an unsettled picture and likely to feel quite chilly once again in those in
10:46those brisk north to northwesterly winds. So there's quite a lot going on
10:50actually in the weather this week with outbreaks of rain some quite strong and
10:54gusty weather and a brief brief colder spell by the time we reach Sunday it's
10:58still going to be quite chilly as I say particularly in those winds but
11:01generally temperatures returning slightly closer to average if if not
11:05just below but obviously as I said in those winds it could just feel that
11:08little bit chillier. So alongside the the the quite windy weather we do have a
11:16couple of Met Office yellow warnings in force so I'll just drag those over here.
11:23Oh here we go try and get them both on the chart for you. So here we go so
11:29there's one warning this is kind of this area just to the west here and then this
11:34second area just running through the central spine of the UK and so the one
11:39across central areas that's just accounting for kind of gusts to the lee
11:43of high ground which we quite often see with this kind of wind direction as the
11:47winds move up from the southwesterly direction they move over hilly areas and
11:51then that creates gusts just to the lee of high ground more on that later and
11:56then we also have a secondary area just to the west affecting western coasts of
12:02Wales eastern coasts of Northern Ireland and also western coasts of Scotland but
12:07this warning area is also up through the Irish Channel as well so there is a
12:12chance that we could see potential disruption through some ferry routes
12:16particularly if they're traveling kind of east to west as those winds are kind
12:20of coming from a south southwesterly direction this is for Tuesday night
12:24through into Wednesday so a chance we could potentially see some impacts here
12:29which is why the warnings have been issued as well as lots of people
12:33traveling around for the Christmas period so if you are in about out and
12:36about particularly if you're traveling around for the lead-up to Christmas
12:39don't forget to stay updated on our website as we already have warnings
12:44issued and there is a chance that we could see more as we head into the new
12:48week as well so stay updated and of course we'll update you here on YouTube
12:52and across our social media channels so quite a lot of gusty weather around but
12:58not only that we've also got plenty of rain moving through as well so just want
13:02to draw your attention to some of the kind of rainfall totals that we could
13:07potentially be looking at obviously as I've said earlier in the week it was
13:10mainly confined to the far northwest and those kind of increased rainfall totals
13:15but as that system that explained that's moving up through the southwest just
13:20drag that forward here we go so if I just drag this through here we go to
13:32tomorrow evening well we'll start to see that rain as it moves its way up
13:38from the southwest you can see here from these brighter colors that we're likely
13:42to see some potentially quite significant rainfall totals I mean these
13:45are over a three-hour period so some quite intense heavy bursts potentially
13:50moving through particularly parts of the south parts of central England and then
13:54later as that system moves through we could see some some high rainfall totals
13:58over the three-hour period across the southeast and parts of East Anglia as
14:02well even slightly further north a kind of around Manchester area and parts of
14:07Lancashire parts of Lincolnshire sorry as well we could also see perhaps some
14:13slightly higher rainfall totals as that system moves through so a chance we
14:17could potentially see another warning in terms of rainfall as we head through
14:23later on Wednesday so as I say it's always worth keeping updated but in
14:27general it is worth noting that there is going to be heavy outbreaks of rain it's
14:30going to be quite blustery at times moving through as we head into the week
14:34so if you are traveling around for the Christmas period do take care if you're
14:37out and about particularly through as we head through into Wednesday one more
14:43thing before we get into something a bit more theoretical I just want to draw
14:48your attention to temperatures so I'm gonna see if I can get this one to work
15:00there we go I clicked on the wrong one here we go so here we go so what's this
15:05for so this is for Hampshire just down to the south of the UK so just wanted to
15:10draw your attention so as we head through into this is maximum temperatures
15:14on the top minimum temperatures on the bottom so heading into Tuesday and
15:18Thursday it's gonna be particularly mild for the time of year across the south
15:21is where we're going to see those the sort of mildest of the weather so 13
15:25degrees or the average is around about 7 for this time in December so very
15:29mild for the time of year may not feel particularly mild but those temperatures
15:33are mild for the time of year and then as we get into Thursday that's when we
15:37start to see those those dip in temperatures as I say it's gonna be
15:40turning colder particularly if you add on or add on the wind chill as well but
15:44with the kind of strengthening of the winds that should stop most frost
15:48formation so we're not going to see a widespread frost but there is a chance
15:51we may see little pockets in more kind of sheltered spots where they don't see
15:55as much of the wind then as we head towards the weekend as I say it's still
15:59going to be fairly unsettled but we start to see those temperatures
16:02increase for the weekend and into next week as well so starting to return a bit
16:06more around average if not slightly above across parts of the south but if
16:10we go further north as well it's a similar kind of picture this is for
16:14Aberdeen for example so a slight increase in temperatures I mean even in
16:18Aberdeen on Wednesday are expecting highs around 12 Celsius and then as we
16:24head into Thursday that dip and then we return to something a bit more average
16:27for the time of year as well but we can see even those minimum temperatures just
16:30with those strengthening winds they don't quite drop below zero but as I say
16:33a chance we could in in some rural spots as well and I'm probably feeling quite
16:38chilly if you add on the wind chill as well so there we have it then we've got
16:43outbreaks of rain tick potentially some quite significant accumulations forming
16:47across the south some quite strong winds particularly in those western areas the
16:52northern isles as well as those systems move their way across and we are going
16:56to see something a bit chilly and then turning a bit more average as we head
16:59into the weekend so as I say with alongside the the strengthening of the
17:07winds we can also see some interesting cloud formations and this is as a result
17:13of something what we we call here at Met Office or in meteorology we call them
17:18lee waves so this is a type of standing wave that we can see in the atmosphere
17:23and it's generally a stationary wave with respect to the earth's surface and
17:29it takes place so we have a mountain or a barrier and the winds generally moving
17:35across this mountain at around 90 degrees and you need particular wind
17:40speeds and a particular wind direction for this to take place but as a result
17:45of these kind of lee waves that we can see in the atmosphere we can see some
17:48interesting cloud formations which is a good thing but it's also quite quite an
17:53impactful hazard in terms of aviation which I'll explain why in a minute so I
17:57am going to attempt to explain this to you using this diagram as well as my
18:04trusty pen so if you're not a fan of mountain waves it's probably worth
18:08watching anyway because I have no doubt it's going to be quite entertaining I've
18:11not used this this drawing pen before so we'll see how it goes so just to
18:17recap then so we have a mountain or a barrier or some some hills and then we've
18:21got our winds moving through at roughly a 90 degree angle and another ingredients
18:26that we also need is some stable air aloft just shown by these slightly
18:30darker blue colors at the top of the diagram and an indication that the air
18:36is stable is that we see a temperature inversion so that's temperature
18:39increasing with height so our winds are moving through they hit the mountain or
18:46hill and so the air is forced upwards now as it's forced upwards it will hit
18:51this stable air aloft it will hit that temperature inversion and it's forced
18:56back down the lee side of the mountain and because this air was originally
19:00stable it wants to move back to to its original level so then it moves back to
19:06the more stable stable layer of air and once again we have a similar scenario
19:11where it hits that temperature inversion the air is forced back down towards the
19:15surface the air is stable so it wants to return to the stable layer of air and so
19:22on and so forth and then we start to see an oscillation begin to appear so that's
19:29the kind of general setup for as what the kind of air does as it moves over
19:33those hilly areas so we start to see quite an increase in wind speeds as it
19:39moves down down sort of the trough of the lee wave down the side of the
19:43mountain the wind speeds generally decreasing as they move over the crest
19:47and so on and so forth so an oscillation takes place and this can continue further
19:52on down from the mountain range ten to hundreds of miles further down so that's
19:57when we start to see the oscillation take place and the kind of restoring
20:02force is gravity so another another name for these lee waves or mountain waves
20:07is also gravity waves and what we tend to find as well if there's enough
20:11moisture in the air we can start to see some clouds form just at the top top of
20:19the kind of crest of the wave as well so the air the moist air will be forced
20:24upwards it will cool and condense as it goes higher in the atmosphere and we
20:28start to see some clouds that's meant to be a cloud form just to the just
20:34form just to the top of the crest of the wave so then we start to see these kind
20:40of cloud formations just start to appear if I can get another one on there for
20:46you and just start to appear higher up in the atmosphere so we'll see kind of
20:51almost like a ripple effect which we can see quite clearly in satellite imagery
20:55which I'll show you in a second where we see clouds some clearer air and then
20:59some cloud clear air and and so on and so forth now what we can see as well as
21:05a result of these wave formations is that we see some stronger winds from
21:09aloft these can be forced down towards the surface as well so if you're
21:13listening to a forecast and we're talking about potentially some strong
21:16winds particularly to the lee of high ground that's usually why because as the
21:20air is forced down the lee side of the mountain we can see some quite gusty
21:24weather at times so if you've ever wondered why we specify those kind of
21:27areas and then you then you know why and so another thing that we can also see
21:34well we can also get sorry as a result of these waves we can have a change in
21:39wind direction as I've just sort of wind speed sorry as I've just kind of
21:42mentioned there we can also see a slight change in pressure we tend to get areas
21:49of low pressure forming just to the trough of these waves so sorry apologies
21:57the pen is quite thick so we see areas of low pressure just form just underneath
22:03the trough of the wave at the surface and underneath the crest of the wave as
22:10well we can see areas of high pressure begins form I just draw that on here
22:19hopefully that's clear so not only do can we see a change of wind speed as a
22:25result of these these these this waving of the air over the other side of the
22:32mountain so we can see a change of wind speed at the surface but we can also see
22:35a change of of pressure so we start to see areas of low and high pressure and
22:43if the pressure difference is strong enough we can actually see a slight
22:47change in wind direction as well at the surface so you can see why I mentioned
22:50it can be quite quite a hazard in terms of in terms of aviation where we'll see
22:55fairly light winds at times just to just aloft of the mountain but if that plane
23:00then starts to fly lower to the surface it's likely that it could catch some
23:05some severe turbulences time at times with that change in that change of wind
23:10speed as well as the change in pressure and sometimes these circulations they
23:15can when they occur at the surface they can actually break away and become their
23:19own sort of small-scale circulations these are called rotors they can occur
23:23in the UK they're not quite as common certain places such as the Falkland
23:28Islands in Gibraltar where they have quite a good sort of well in Gibraltar
23:33they've got the the rock and in the Falklands they've got they've got the
23:36mountain range of the Wickham Heights I think and depending on the wind
23:39direction we can get these sorts of waves and we can get rotor activity so
23:44areas of small scale circulations called rotors as well as some quite
23:49interesting cloud formations such as these on the top you can also get what's
23:54called roll clouds as well when the cloud is pushed down the side of the
23:58mountain if you are a cloud fan YouTube roll clouds time-lapse
24:04they're really interesting almost looks like a tsunami of cloud and moving
24:07through down across the hills so these are the kind of kind of setup that we
24:13could potentially see in the UK this week depending on the wind direction
24:18depending whereabouts you are in the country so Scotland you tend to get quite
24:22a lot of early wave activity across the Pennines for example any kind of hilly
24:26areas if the wind direction is set up right and the speed is right you can
24:30potentially see these oscillations move through down the lee side down the lee
24:34side of the mountains and we could potentially see some interesting cloud
24:39formations just form at the at the crest of the clouds here one of which
24:44looks a little bit like this this is a lenticular cloud at the moment it looks
24:49a bit too cloudy for and to be able to kind of spot these these kind of
24:54formations but later in the week because it particularly as we start to see that
24:59chillier and clearer air if the wind direction is right there is a chance we
25:02could we could potentially spot some of these form particularly further north
25:07in parts of Scotland we're expecting those stronger winds so do keep your eye
25:10out if you're in those sorts of areas and another way as a forecaster that we
25:14can spot these lee wave formations is through satellite imagery this is
25:18actually taken from earlier in the year it's the kind of best example I could
25:22see but you can kind of see that rippling effect through the cloud and
25:25that's where those oscillations are taking place so the wind direction more
25:29of a westerly moving over those hilly areas and those oscillations taking
25:33place just to the lee of high ground so I hope I explained that okay I hope my
25:38drawing didn't confuse you too much any further questions on lee waves and how
25:42they're formed leave them in the comments we do have the live on Friday
25:46so I can take a look and answer any further questions if you do if you do
25:51have any further questions on a mountain wave activity and obviously keep your
25:54eyes peeled this week to see if you can spot any of those cloud formations you
25:59can tell your friends how they're formed so we've spoken about the weather
26:05this week we've gone into a little bit of meteorology theory how about
26:11Christmas have you been dreaming of a white Christmas we've had lots of lots
26:15of questions around Christmas there's been lots in the headlines about
26:18potentially seeing a white Christmas if that's what you're after I might have a
26:23little bit of disappointing news but let's take a look at some of the details
26:26what we're expecting next week and the kind of Christmas forecast that we that
26:30we could potentially see so to start off then I'll take a look at the kind of the
26:37pressure anomaly and so this is using a range of the models that we use here at
26:42the Met Office kind of looking at the anomaly for the week from Monday the
26:4723rd through to Monday the 30th of December so running through that
26:50Christmas period just before we hit New Year's New Year's Eve and New Year's Day
26:55so this is the pressure anomaly and these darker pink colors are generally
27:00showing high pressure so that means our winds are going to be moving in more of
27:04a kind of clockwise direction now with this kind of set up with high pressure
27:09just to the southwest of the UK that does mean it kind of it it does open up
27:16the way for potentially some frontal systems just sweeping around the kind of
27:20northern flank of that high so that does mean once again the northwest of
27:25the country may just may just get the short the short straw in terms of any
27:30rainfall as well as there's a chance we could see some frontal systems just
27:34start to clip the edge of the northwest of the country if those move through so
27:39although high pressure yes most of the time it does mean settled weather it
27:43doesn't always mean glorious sunshine we can get lots of cloud and moisture
27:48trapped underneath that high so although largely dry and settled for many away
27:52from the northwest it could still mean quite a cloudy picture as well as the
27:57kind of cloud and moisture just moving through across the northwest on the kind
28:03of outer edge of high pressure we do tend to see once again a squeeze in the
28:06ice bars as well so there is a chance that we could also see some windy
28:10weather just start to move through into the northwest as well so a chance here
28:14parts of Northern Ireland western north northwestern parts of Scotland
28:18perhaps just starting to clip in to northern parts of England as well as a
28:22chance we could see some cloudier if not some wet weather move through
28:25potentially turning windier as well across the far south and southeast
28:30though with the high pressure dominating any frontal systems moving their way
28:34through will most likely tend to fizzle out so the best bet for the kind of
28:38driest and brightest of the weather is across the far southeast but as I say
28:42there's lots of cloud and moisture trapped under there it might be quite a
28:44cloudy day but it should be largely dry across the far south and southeast if
28:49you're heading out for a Christmas walk obviously this is the pressure
28:53anomaly through the course of the week but something more specific to Christmas
28:57Day here is kind of one of our ensemble members so one of the possible regimes
29:03out of all the different Met Office outcomes that we could potentially see
29:07the Met Office model outcomes we could potentially see and this has high
29:11pressure situated in a fairly similar place just slightly situated just the
29:16center of the high just slightly further south of the UK so once again as I
29:21mentioned just that northern flank of the high a few more isobars on the chart
29:26there's some blustery weather potentially across the far northwest
29:29and it could just swing in some frontal systems at times to across these areas
29:34and once again the driest and brightest of the weather across the far south and
29:39southeast so it should be fairly dry across much of the country but it's just
29:45keeping an eye on those northwestern areas for any potential rain or some
29:48strong winds too and it's it's always very dependent on whereabouts that high
29:52pressure sat you know slightly further north and it's probably going to be
29:55quite a fine settled day across most of the country but slightly shifted further
29:59south and we could see a few more of those frontal systems just starting to
30:02clip in not just the northwest but perhaps western parts of England and
30:06Wales too it's always the best bet that with those with that more zonal pattern
30:10those frontal systems coming off the Atlantic that eastern areas are likely
30:13to stay driest so at the moment there's a 53% probability that this could be the
30:19outcome as we head into the Christmas period so largely settled just a chance
30:25we could see some wet and windy weather in the far northwest now what about any
30:30snow well generally this kind of wind direction it's that slightly milder
30:35direction so if we do start to see our winds move through from the west and
30:39southwest are coming off from the Atlantic and that's more of a milder
30:42direction compared to if say the high was situations further east or further
30:47west sorry and then we'll start to see those northerly winds but as it shifted
30:51slightly further south we've got more of a west southwesterly direction so if I
30:57draw your attention to these these are called meteor grams and they kind of
31:01show our temperature this is actually through into Sunday the 29th the kind of
31:07average temperature that we're expecting the kind of spread of what the models
31:11are telling us that the potential temperatures could be as we head through
31:14the week so we can see already just looking at these box and whisker plots
31:19they're called so we've got these boxes and then these these lines coming out
31:23the top and the bottom they're called whiskers kind of showing the highest and
31:27lowest of the spread of those temperatures as we move through the week
31:30with this red line here kind of showing the average temperature for the time of
31:33year so anything above this red line is going to be above average for this time
31:39in December and anything below is going to be below average for this time of
31:43year and the red box and whisker plots for maximum temperature during the day
31:48so we can see on Thursday there's that cold dip and as we head towards
31:52Christmas Day so Wednesday the 25th is around here we can start to see those
31:57temperatures more moving above that red line so more above average for the time
32:01of year and these boxes are actually fairly small which shows there's not
32:05actually much spread in between all the different models or what all the
32:09different models are suggesting even between the different whiskers so the
32:12top line and the bottom line that's the kind of highest and lowest of this
32:16spread so even between the whiskers here there's actually not too much spread but
32:21overall the whole box is above average for the time of year so it's likely
32:25going to be just above average if not fairly mild by the time we reach by the
32:31time we reach Christmas Day so with that westerly regime moving through generally
32:36that high pressure situated to the south that's bringing in some milder air so
32:40unlikely to see any sort of widespread snow as we head into Christmas so sorry
32:46if that's a little bit disappointing for you but there is always a chance that
32:51there are some areas so just to the very far northwest for example may just move
32:55in some slightly colder air perhaps across parts of the UK so or just or
33:01just to the far northwest sorry because actually for a white Christmas there
33:05only needs to be one snowflake to fall and that could be anywhere in the UK so
33:08even if we see a single snowflake observed in Scotland over higher ground
33:13that technically means that it's been a white Christmas but overall looking at
33:17the setup it's not looking like we are gonna see any kind of white Christmas
33:21best of the weather if you're heading out for a walk likely across the
33:25south and southeast perhaps just some wet and windy weather moving into the
33:28far northwest but of course we'll update you daily with regards to the Christmas
33:33forecast and in our daily forecast in general let's just double check if that
33:38is correct so I'm gonna get up something very high-tech for you now we've got our
33:43snowometer let's see what it's saying unlikely but stay tuned in terms of a
33:50in terms of a white Christmas so there you go don't listen to me listen to the
33:54snowometer so I'd likely we're gonna see you at Christmas but hopefully I've
33:57given you a few more details so you can so you can get going with your Christmas
34:02plans now as I say there's lots of weather going on this week some rain
34:06some strong winds already a couple of wind warnings issued so do stay up to
34:10date on our website for for those warnings particularly if you are
34:14traveling around going to see friends and family for the Christmas period but
34:18otherwise that's it from me I hope you've enjoyed I hope I've explained
34:22things that have made sense as I say we've got the live on Friday at 1215
34:27here on YouTube so you can always watch that and send in your questions you can
34:31send in questions beforehand you don't just have to send them during the live
34:34and I'll keep an eye on those to see to see if you understood and to see if I
34:38can explain it any further and I'm sure on Friday as well we can give you a few
34:42more details for the Christmas the Christmas weather as well as we go as we
34:47go closer to the closer to the big day too so I hope you've enjoyed we'll catch
34:52you on Friday if not at next week's deep dive have a good week bye bye