This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A big change is coming, the UK will be seeing higher temperatures and higher rainfall by the end of the week. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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00:00Will the UK really be warmer than Greece later this week? Temperatures are on the
00:06rise but it may not surprise you to learn that although it's getting warmer
00:10it's also getting wetter. A big change in the UK's weather over the next few
00:16days. We're also going to be looking at the Americas because plus 40 Celsius is
00:21possible in Brazil over the next few days minus 40 Celsius in parts of North
00:27America. So huge temperature extremes there. An awful lot to get through in
00:31this week's Met Office Deep Dive. Thank you for joining me. Thank you for being
00:36there. If you could hit the thumbs up that would be absolutely superb. Please
00:40do leave a comment. We read all of the comments and we do love to get your
00:45comments and your suggestions as well. Last week's Deep Dive the Honour did
00:50lots of nice thank yous to her. Niall Keogh, Graham Reid, Diane Anderson, Sue
00:55Wright, me and mine 8685 all leaving very nice comments about Honours Deep
01:00Dive last week. Kilroy 76 was asking about last week the jet left exit
01:05region. There's another full Deep Dive all about left exits and right entrances
01:11so go and check that out Kilroy 76. Rupert Higgins 7358, the York Gliding
01:16Centre and Neil B2793 all asking a similar question about looking back and
01:22comparing the different models and finding out which one is the better
01:25performing model and just generally about computer modelling. And yeah really
01:30good suggestions for that. Something we'll definitely be looking at
01:33particularly when our new supercomputer comes fully online later this year. But
01:38yeah they're really good suggestions. We often get people suggesting we look back
01:41and compare. So yeah something we'll be bearing in mind for future Deep Dives or
01:45even evergreen videos or making more and more kind of informative videos. Put one
01:50out last week about freezing rain. I'll put the link in the description for that
01:54if you're interested. But we're making videos every other week or so. We can
01:58only do it because you like what you see. So as I said give us the thumbs up. The
02:02likes and the shares really do matter to us. So yeah let everyone know that we're
02:06on here. We do this Deep Dive every week, every Tuesday. So all the Met heads need
02:11to know about it. Right okay lots and lots to talk about this week isn't there
02:16always. But yeah in particular we're talking huge temperature swings. Here's
02:21the satellite image and it's shown for the past well just feels like about four
02:27months but actually it's probably only about two weeks. We've been kind of in a
02:31battleground. The UK stuck between low-pressure systems out in the Atlantic
02:35but not really moving very far. You can see that beautiful swirl there. Throwing
02:39up cloud close to the UK fringing in and then not making much progress. And out
02:44across mainland Europe we've got a blocking area of high pressure and
02:49gently it's been feeding easterly winds and cold air our way. Not exceptionally
02:54cold as we've discussed in previous Deep Dives. There's no beast from the east
02:58but it's certainly been on the chilly side so far through February. So we're in
03:01this scrap and yeah eventually this week the low pressure is going to win. So it
03:07will be turning wetter but it is also going to be turning warmer. Look at the
03:12temperature rise over the next few days. Some places struggling four or five
03:16degrees Celsius this afternoon. Add on the wind and it feels even colder than
03:20that. Let's put the wind chill on just one or two degrees. On the east coast
03:24feeling even colder in fact for some this afternoon. So yes it is getting an
03:29awful lot warmer over the next few days. By the time we get to Friday temperatures
03:34up into the teens. 15, 16 is just about possible where we see some sunshine. So
03:39temperatures by day and by night on the rise. So it's going to be chilly for the
03:44next few nights. Pockets of frost here and there but generally a lot of cloud
03:47around. But look at these minimum temperatures. So by Friday the minimum
03:51temperatures are above the maximum temperatures at the moment. So we are
03:55going to see a big change. It is turning much milder. It's also going to be
03:59turning wetter as we shall see momentarily. Because while we're on the
04:03subject of temperatures let's take you to another extreme. Nothing extreme about
04:07the temperatures we're seeing. Just going from a bit below average to a bit
04:11above average. But in Brazil temperatures are pretty extreme. Very high
04:17temperatures in Brazil at the moment. Let's take a look at those if we pan
04:21across down to Rio de Janeiro. Wouldn't it be nice to be there at the moment?
04:27Well probably not because temperatures are high. Very high. In fact if we fast
04:32forward to their maximum temperature time this afternoon we can get up to
04:36probably 35-36 degrees. Yeah there we go 36 degrees 7 o'clock UK time. So that's
04:44their maximum time. Temperatures in Rio de Janeiro 36 degrees Celsius and that
04:48is above average for the time of year. Their February record actually is 39.1
04:55Celsius. We might get a little bit higher than 36. So not far off record breaking.
05:00And temperatures in this area here also very high. That heat building and if
05:06anything here that does get a little cooler in Rio. Temperatures in
05:12Brasilia up to 28 and these areas just to the north staying in the low 30s over
05:18the next couple of days. The highest temperature for Brasilia is close to
05:2432 for February. That's their February record. So again not far off record
05:29breaking. The heat in these areas persisting for the next few days. Doesn't
05:32sound that much but they don't get huge variations and those temperatures are
05:36a few degrees above average. And it's not just about the heat it's the
05:39humidity as well. So very warm very humid air being created by high pressure
05:45squashing the air down. If we take a look at what's going on higher up in the sky
05:51and the jet stream. Let's take a look at the jet down across the south. Let's zoom
05:59out a little bit. You can see that the jet that's maybe a bit too far. The jet
06:03let's actually take a look from the pole. So there's the South Pole. You can
06:07see the jet the southern jet just wobbling around it. Notice it is quite
06:11wobbly. There's probably what five peaks and troughs. So it's this kind of five
06:15waves are going around the South Pole in terms of the jet. Whoa it's going a bit
06:21crazy. The power I can spin the earth. It's amazing. There's also the
06:25subtropical jet which is further north as well. So with the jet dipping like
06:29this you've got a ridge of high pressure in here. And it's this high
06:33pressure that's been sitting around for a number of days. And then another high
06:36builds in here. We fast forward to Thursday. Another high pressure building
06:40in here. And it's that high pressure that's dominating keeping the skies
06:43clear by day. A lot of insulation coming down. And also this high pressure means
06:48the air is getting squished. So it's that compression which also helps to build the
06:52temperatures day on day as well as the you know the sun's high in the sky. And
06:56it's a hot time of year generally. So it's the back end of their summer. So
07:00they are going to see some very high temperatures in this part of the world.
07:03It is also really humid as well. There's issues with water supplies. Some parts of
07:07the favelas are being reportedly out of water as well. So this is pretty unusual
07:12for this part of the world to see this temperature. The temperatures in this
07:18zone staying very hot and staying very humid from Sao Paulo to Rio up to
07:22Brasilia in this inland area where the temperatures will continue to rise over
07:26the next few days in particular. So temperatures may drop off in Rio and Sao
07:30Paulo but in Brasilia and inland we're seeing the temperatures significantly
07:35above the average. And this is the forecast extreme sorry the extreme
07:40forecast index from the European computer model ECMWF. And anything in the
07:45red here is showing extremes in the 90th to 100th percentile. So that is pretty
07:51extreme the heat in this part of the world over the next few days. So yes it's
07:56been very hot. The heat will continue to build obviously heavily populated cities
08:01like Sao Paulo and Rio and Brasilia as well. Belo Horizonte as well. So these
08:07temperatures are pretty unusual for the time of year. Extreme temperatures. Of
08:12course you've got that high heat index. The humidity is also pretty high. So
08:16that is something we need to keep an eye on over the next few days. We will now
08:21go to North America where the opposite is true. I showed you the the jet stream
08:28from the southern hemisphere from the South Pole. This is now looking down from
08:31the North Pole. This is not showing that the winds is showing that the dew point
08:35but you can see that the cold outbreaks. So that's the North Pole there just
08:40about make out North America. There's Florida poking out there. It's always
08:43good to find out these bits that poke out there. Scandinavia poking out there
08:48and then Japan is round here. So you've got these kind of quite noticeable
08:51three cold pools dipping to the south. And that's because the jets in a in a
08:57three wave pattern that you can see the three peaks and troughs there. So
09:01we've got more like five or six waves in the southern hemisphere. There's three
09:06here and the fewer the waves in the jet going round then the more amplified the
09:12pattern is and the more extreme so that the warmer areas going further north
09:17and the colder areas going further south. So you have more wobbles if you
09:20like more extremes of wobbles but fewer of them around the northern hemisphere.
09:24That cold air is driving south across North America now somewhere to extreme
09:29weather in North America over the course of the weekend with heavy rain and a
09:34cold outbreak. And a similar thing is now happening if we go over to North
09:38America. Take a look at the jet stream. Notice how it's powering out of North
09:43America and that's kind of fueling the change for the UK over the coming days
09:47as well. But I'll talk more about that in a moment. First of all let's look at
09:50what's going on here because the the jet is weakening but then we've got this
09:53plunge, this trough, this dip in the jet. High pressure here winds going clockwise
10:00around the high pressure so drawing down a lot of cold air. Down here we've got
10:06tropical air where the cold air hits the tropical air you generate uplift and you
10:10generate a weather system and that's where we're going to see some further
10:13heavy rain and heavy snow. And those temperatures, what should we put on now?
10:17Let's show the temperature contrast. So there's the cold air sinking south. Take
10:22the jet off for now. The cold air pushing south meeting that warmer air and in
10:26here breeding ground for an area of low pressure and we are going to see some
10:30wet weather. Take the temperatures off just generated in here. Doesn't look much
10:34at the moment but over the next day or so it spins up into an area of low
10:38pressure, heavy rain and heavy snow on its northern flank. Heavy snow and some
10:42freezing rain likely and again affecting these southeastern states that have been
10:46pretty badly hit over the recent days and then dropping quite a lot
10:51of heavy rain in around the panhandle up towards the Carolinas. Some heavy snow in
10:55here. This is the end of Wednesday and into Thursday. So further heavy snow,
10:59further heavy rain to come. So it's another one of those multi-hazard
11:03events as we call them across the United States with rain and snow. And
11:08then the cold air in place behind it. Really cold air. So we're going to see
11:12those extremes. Let's look at the temperatures in terms of the extremes. So
11:17this is the opposite in terms of the the temperatures. We're now in the percentile
11:22the 90th to the 100th percentile in terms of low temperatures across North
11:26America. Again there's the panhandle down to Mexico. Here there's California and in
11:31this zone temperatures for the next. So that's for the next 72 hours, next three
11:38days. The magenta colors there close to that 100th percentile. So extremes of
11:43temperatures and let's actually put them on if we can. If I can remember where
11:49they are. They're in here. Very cold air pushing its way south across into North
12:02America. So these are some of the numbers. Bismarck's minus 36 I think. I can take
12:06that off actually. Yeah let's take those off. Yeah minus 36 in Bismarck which is
12:09close to record-breaking. This first thing this morning. Those dark blue
12:12colors. Extremely cold air pushing its way southwards. Just to the south I think
12:17Just the south of Bismarck there I found a minus 41 degrees Celsius and
12:21temperatures all in this area well below the average and pushing some records for
12:25that extreme cold. If we fast forward to Friday though temperatures are really on
12:30the way up. I mean still at what's that probably nine o'clock in the morning
12:34eight o'clock in the morning. Still well below freezing but it is quite a big
12:38jump compared to what it's going to be this morning. So it is going to slowly
12:41turn milder here but stay on the cold side. But that cold air is pushing quite
12:46far south. Look at that Houston two degrees you know it's right in the south
12:51of the United States and places further north below freezing well below. So that
12:56cold air is really pushing quite far south across the United States to help
12:59it to drive that low pressure system that will bring further heavy rain snow
13:03and freezing rain. So yes some extremes of cold across North and South America.
13:09Another place that's going to see some colder conditions is the eastern
13:15Mediterranean because temperatures are falling away here and again if we look
13:22at the let's actually start with what's going on with the jet stream. Not
13:27particularly powerful jet but it is dipping down to the south. We've got this
13:30trough in here generally weaker areas of high pressure sitting across Europe
13:35that's what's been helping to drive the easterly for us but high in the sky the
13:39jet stream dipping to the south and the cold air is pooling in here and that
13:43cold air is going to push further south over the next few days. If we fast
13:47forward see how that colder is dipping south. There's Turkey there's the Black
13:52Sea, Bulgaria, Romania. Notice how the colder air is pushing even down across
13:56parts of Greece. So we're really going to see a dip in the temperatures here. Now
14:01the Greek Weather Service have actually named this system even though you know
14:05it doesn't really look that stormy. It doesn't look like a storm does it but
14:07they've named it because it's going to bring some very low temperatures for the
14:11time of year. It will bring some snow and also some gusty winds. But the gusty
14:16winds being caused by the isobars kind of squeezing together there. So around
14:20the area of high pressure the winds are going to be coming down from the north
14:23so that is going to generate temperatures well below the average for
14:27the time of year. So much colder air heading down to this part of the world.
14:31There will be some snow flurries too. In fact let's zoom in a little bit and put
14:36the actual surface winds on. You can see these surface winds now coming
14:41down over the Black Sea straight down from the north. Now what that's going to
14:45do is bring cold air and over a relatively warm sea. The temperatures in
14:51the sea here about plus seven plus eight degrees Celsius in the Black Sea. So what
14:55that does cold air comes south it travels over some warmer water. It picks
15:00up that moisture because it warms up the bottom layer it starts to rise. It picks
15:04up moisture and then as it hits the land on the other side it dumps it all as
15:09snow. So this is kind of like lake effect snow. So lake effect snow what you get in
15:15the Great Lakes in the United States when you get cold northerly air stream
15:19coming down. It picks up that moisture over the Great Lakes as it's warmer over
15:23the water. Then as soon as it hits land again it dumps it down as snow and that's
15:27what we're going to see here. Some quite hefty snow flurries coming into parts of
15:32Turkey and Romania over the next couple of days. I'll take the temperatures off and
15:37show the snow building up here. You can see that line of it there just picking
15:43up as it picks up the moisture drops it. Often right on the shore you get rain
15:49and then just a few miles inland you get snow. So you can see that kind of lake
15:53effect snow as that northerly wind picks up the moisture from the Black Sea and
15:57dumps large amounts of snow across Turkey parts of Romania and Bulgaria as
16:02well. Not huge amounts of snow for Greece although there will be some over the
16:05hills and the mountains but that northerly wind is really going to bring a
16:08chill here over the next few days. So let's look at those temperatures. We're
16:13starting off today 18 degrees in Cyprus, 16 in Corfu, 14 in Athens. Fast forward to
16:22Thursday and five o'clock in the afternoon so about their maximum
16:27temperature time really. Now it's a bit late isn't it? Let's give them an hour or so
16:31earlier but only single figures in Athens. Paphos down to 16. By the time we
16:35get to Saturday, four o'clock, Paphos is 12, Athens is 5, Corfu is 11. Remember what
16:41the UK temperatures are going to be on Friday and probably into Saturday into
16:44double figures. So yeah we're going to be on a similar temperature note to
16:48Greece through the weekend. Certainly likely to be much warmer than Athens as
16:52we go into the weekend and many places certainly on Friday will be warmer than
16:56Corfu and Cyprus. But of course we will also be wetter as we will see in a
17:02moment. How unusual is this in this part of the world? Well it's not as extreme. So
17:08again this is the extreme forecast index in the European computer model where
17:13you're comparing what's happening now to the climatological, the modelled
17:17climatological average. And it's showing up here Greece, Greek islands in here,
17:24there's Cyprus in here, showing at 50th, 60th percentile. So it's actually not that
17:28unusual and there was a similar outbreak just a couple of years ago that was
17:31actually more extreme and temperatures were even lower. But notice further north
17:34into parts of Turkey we are getting up to the 80th, 90th percentile. So it's
17:38more unusual the cold here that it is going to be further south. But it's also
17:44going to be cold in, it's not just confined to European temperatures. If we
17:53fast forward to Saturday and look at those temperatures in Damascus down it's
17:57a single figure. So that again is about 5 or 6 degrees below the average and
18:01that's the daytime temperatures. The nighttime temperatures will be lower
18:05than that. But let's fast forward through to, yeah so there we go, Sunday morning
18:09down to twos and threes. That's Damascus. You can imagine the surrounding areas
18:13will be around or below freezing and that's going to really impact the
18:16humanitarian effects that are going on in this part of the world at the moment
18:19as well. So that is something we need to keep a close eye on as that cold air
18:23plunges south over the coming days. So yeah unusual but not exceptional in that
18:29part of the world. And yeah again unusual that it's going to be colder than the UK.
18:34In fact let's put on the temperature, showing you the UK temperatures. But if
18:40we just take that off and put that one on, that one even. And let's do a
18:50comparison of those temperatures across Europe. I'll show you what the maxes are
18:58going to be doing. And let's find, let's find Paphos shall we? Is that Paphos?
19:02Oh nailed it. So that's the temperatures in Paphos dipping down to 14 degrees
19:07Celsius. The minimum there as well. And other parts further north we can find
19:13some really low temperatures just to the north of Bucharest. Temperatures really
19:17dropping down the maximums there. Minus 20 degrees Celsius by the time we get to
19:23when's that? Friday. So that cold air in place. But then it does get quite a bit
19:27milder. And just one more thing I want to show you because the temperature
19:30contrast is going to be quite huge. Zoom right out. Talked about the cold air in
19:35the United States. Let's just show the temperatures there over the next few
19:39days because they are really going to drop and then rise again. So if we just
19:43find somewhere down here. Is that into Texas? Amarillo. There we go. Show me the
19:48way to Amarillo. First time. These are the maxima over the next few days. Minus 6
19:53is the max in Amarillo. Rising to plus 21. The min's minus 18 for the next couple
19:58of nights. Rising to above freezing by the time we get into next week. So yeah
20:02cold blast in the States. Particularly so a long way south in Amarillo before
20:08temperatures do start to rise. Okay that's enough on the global
20:12temperatures. Let's concentrate a little bit more about what's going on in the UK
20:16because we've we've already talked about it getting milder. But what's going on
20:21with the bigger picture? Well if you watch the deep dive then you know what
20:24it's what it's all about. It's all about this fella the jet stream. An energized
20:29jet stream powering out of the United States. In part powered by that
20:33temperature contrast. Certainly a couple of days ago that generated that one
20:38storm and then it's picked up the jet stream. Now finally these low pressure
20:42systems that have been milling around out in the Atlantic not doing very much
20:46are given a bit of welly and they're given a push and they are moving in
20:50towards the UK. So we are going to see the jet stream driving low pressure
20:54systems up to us and those weather fronts are going to be producing
20:57outbreaks of rain and the winds are going to be strengthening as well. So
21:01let's have a look at what that means for our weather. Well at the moment we've got
21:05the southeasterly which is why it's chilly. A lot of clouds across Scotland but
21:09it's a decent day out there for a good part of England and Wales yet it's a bit
21:12gusty. Notice these winds picking up actually and bouncing a little bit over
21:17the hills. So we'll notice that this evening Tuesday evening across parts of
21:21North Devon and North and West Wales and the northwest of Northern Ireland. Some
21:26unusually strong gusts in here because the the air is bouncing over the hills
21:30and it's quite an unusual wind direction. Fast forward to Wednesday the fronts are
21:34starting to move in. Wednesday is the transition day if you like. So still
21:39fives and sixes across the east but tens maybe elevens down to the southwest.
21:43That's where the warmer air is really trying to push in and by the time we get
21:46to Thursday well it is in double digits across the board. Well except North East
21:52Scotland sorry. North East Scotland still at nines but that's still above average.
21:5513-14 degrees Celsius but yes it's accompanied by weather fronts and
22:00outbreaks of rain. So the rain is going to be pushing in slowly but surely and
22:05Friday is quite a lively day. The winds really picking up in that southerly wind
22:09so areas again bouncing over the hills but also just generally as the ice
22:13above squidged together in here behind that cold front the winds will increase
22:18and that rain band can be moving across the country as well. So let's look at
22:22what that means for rainfall totals. They're going to be building up over the
22:26next few days. If we put the 24-hour rolling rainfall totals on just play
22:31that through. Patchy rain around here and there but notice the first weather
22:36system creeping into that rain just adding up a little bit on Wednesday and
22:40into Thursday. Nothing too heavy nothing too extreme about that but if we fast
22:45forward into Thursday then that rain is pepping up. The darker blues into the
22:50west. By the time we get to Friday then we get another pulse of rain. So again
22:55just layering up. Notice still parts of the east at this stage. We'll just pause it
22:59there. The parts of the east not seeing much rain. So yeah it is getting wetter in the
23:02west but actually not too wet. Parts of the east not going to see huge amounts of
23:06rain through this week. Mostly focused in the west. Saturday is a drier day but
23:11then we get Sunday you get another layer in there as well. So these dark blues you
23:14can almost pick out the hills and the mountains with that. With the winds
23:17coming in from the south southwest it's always these hills and mountains facing
23:22that direction that are going to bear the brunt. So South Wales, the moors of the
23:25southwest, the hills of North Wales and southwest Scotland. Just zoom in a little
23:29bit. There's a hint of yellow in there which would be over 100 millimetres.
23:33Generally we're talking between 50 and 100 millimetres of rain across these
23:37western hills. That could because I know it's been dry. It's been pretty dry of
23:42late but those kind of rainfall totals do need to be watched because it has
23:46been quite a wet spell so far through this year through this winter. So it
23:50hasn't had time. Things don't dry out very much in February. There's not a lot
23:53of sun power and so although yes we've not seen much falling from the sky for
23:58the past couple of weeks the ground is still very very soggy. So these kind of
24:01rainfall amounts do need watching as we see these weather systems coming in.
24:04Spells of rain one after another basically through the next few days.
24:08Although Saturday does look a little bit drier if you've got plans. So yeah
24:12rainfall totals really building up as we go through the next few days
24:16particularly in these western areas with that rain particularly over those
24:21western hills as the weather system continues to move its way in. Let's look
24:27at the winds now. I've already talked about the winds but just notice one
24:31thing I want to show you here. It's just that subtle difference of the flow
24:33generally coming in from the south southeast at the moment. That's why it's
24:37so chilly on those North Sea coasts. By the time we get to Friday it's not even
24:42really that much of a southwest. It's more of a southerly or you know a slight
24:46west in that south. So you're only changing the wind degree the wind by 50
24:5160 degrees something like that. It makes such a huge difference. It's not like
24:54it's a 180 degree change. You're only subtly changing and it's all because
24:58instead of coming from the landmass you're now coming in from the sea. And
25:02that that subtle shift it does make such a big difference to the temperatures and
25:06the feel of the weather in general. Let's look at those feels like temperatures as
25:11I said or temperatures. Let's compare them to the average. What we're doing
25:17temperature. Yes. So this is the temperature. Is this the temperature
25:20compared. That's this one I show. Yes. So these are the temperatures compared to
25:2324 hours earlier. So this is Thursday. Talked about that that cold southeasterly
25:30breeze bringing that chill to eastern areas. Look at the jump in temperatures
25:34between Thursday and Wednesday. So on Wednesday it's Northern Ireland's Wales
25:40southwest England that we'll see the difference. So again these are the
25:42temperatures compared to today. Tomorrow's Wednesday's temperatures
25:45compared to today. So we're jumping up by three degrees in this zone here. Many
25:50other areas staying the same. But on Thursday doesn't get much warmer here.
25:56But in this zone here it is significantly warm. We've jumped up quite a
26:00lot. By the time we get to Friday. Well most places are going to be the same
26:03because temperatures Thursday and Friday are not too different. And by the time
26:06to get to Saturday actually starts to turn a little bit cooler across some
26:09parts of the UK with with with highs of 10 11 12. But even that is above average
26:14for the time of year. So yeah quite interesting temperature swings over the
26:18next few days. I'd be interested to see what happens as for the outlook. Well
26:24we're looking at southwesterly winds basically for the next few days. Low
26:28pressure systems piling up there. That's the main weather pattern as we go into
26:32the weekend. Low pressure. Actually that's the main one isn't it. So that's
26:40the main one that we're seeing at the moment. The more southwesterly with a
26:43low sitting here southwesterly wind trap. We're changing gradually the
26:46darker blues take over the dates going along the bottom. So gradually taking
26:50over to the darker which is more westerly dominated with a low further to
26:54the northeast and more of a westerly wind flow. And that then dominates for
26:59much of next week. Certainly the early part of next week dominated by
27:02southwesterly winds. That means going to be mild. There'll be spills of rain
27:06showery interludes in between. Temperatures are going to be above
27:08average and that's how we go into next week. But Mr. McG will have more on
27:14that in the 10 day trend tomorrow. No doubt. One thing I wanted to look at
27:19really quickly before we wrap up February so far. Won't surprise you to
27:27know that it has been quite a dull month. Now this is the sunshine
27:32compared to the whole of the month and we're only 18 days in. So you
27:36wouldn't expect this to be showing the average. You'd expect it to be
27:39grey. But it is very grey. We're mostly in this percentile between the
27:4330th and 50th. So most parts of the UK are this kind of third shade of
27:48grey which is between 30 and 50 percent. Now for this time of the
27:51month we'd normally expect 60 61 percent of the average. So you would
27:56expect it to be grey but you'd expect it to be the second shade of grey
27:59here. But it's the third shade of grey in some parts. South Wales parts of
28:03southwest England lower than 30 percent of their average rain average
28:09sunshine. But I wanted to show you this because look at this. Western
28:12Isles had a beautiful February. So yeah whilst a good chunk of the country
28:16most places have been very glum. Glummer than average. Parts of
28:21northwestern Scotland the mainland sky in the Outer Hebrides have been
28:25quite a bit sunnier than average and have already seen more than their
28:30February average in terms of sunshine. So that was quite an interesting
28:34chart. Obviously we'll continue to monitor that over the next few days
28:38because things are going to change. This graph is definitely going to
28:41change. This is showing the rainfall amount in February how it has been a
28:44very dry month so far. This is the cumulative rainfall so far for
28:50February 2025. This is the average line here. So that's how far below
28:55the average we are. Close to the 10th percentile here. A long way from
29:00the record breaking dry February. But you know it has been a dry month
29:04so far. That is obviously going to uptick over the next few days as we
29:08start to see the wetter weather coming in. And another graph that is
29:12going to have an uptick in the coming days the temperature one. So I
29:16want to show you this because it's been quite a month of two halves
29:19really. This is the temperature the maximum temperature cumulative
29:24through the month and actually the first few days were above average
29:26and then they started to drop and we are now back below the average line
29:30here. But again that is going to rise as we head through the next few
29:35days because it's turning milder and it is turning wetter. Right. That's
29:40it from me for now. Thank you so much for watching this deep dive. Hope
29:43you liked it. Interesting to know your feedback on going more global.
29:47We've had comments in the past saying people like us to look at other
29:50stories from around the world and that's one of the reasons why we we
29:53covered that through the day today. But plenty going on with the weather.
29:56So do keep up to date. Best way to do that of course is to hit subscribe
30:00and then you'll get all of our forecasts. Three daily updates. The
30:0410 day trends tomorrow with aid and that'll be an interesting one as
30:07well. So yeah make sure you hit subscribe. If you could hit that
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30:16respond. We can answer some of the questions maybe in a deep dive maybe
30:20on our live broadcast that we do every Friday. Don't forget to tune into
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30:28suggestions for any of the videos. Always very very welcome indeed. So
30:33thank you very much for watching. Share the love. Let everyone know that
30:36we're on here and we do this every Tuesday. Thanks for watching. Well
30:40done for getting to the end of this week's deep dive. You must be a
30:43proper met head in which case you'll want to know all about all of our
30:47other videos including this one that dropped last week all about freezing
30:52rain. Check it out. Why it's so dangerous. Why it's quite rare in the
30:56UK. But what implications it can have when we see freezing rain in the
31:01forecast.