Thursday afternoon forecast 19/10/23
19 October – National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hello. We've got some exceptional weather to come over the next 24 hours. Storm Babbitt
00:05brings this red rain warning across eastern Scotland, which will come into effect this
00:10evening from 6pm. It's a small area across eastern Scotland, Aberdeenshire, Angus, that
00:17will see the worst of this rain. Rain will just persist and be heavy for a prolonged
00:22period of time. And in 24 hours, widely within this area, we could see in excess of 100 millimetres
00:29of rain, but for some, up to 250 millimetres of rain. Now, with the persistency of that
00:35rain and the continuous nature of it falling so heavily, it will lead to some disruptions.
00:40So, stay tuned to the latest forecast for your local area.
00:46As we head through the next few days, the driving force for the bad weather is this
00:51area of low pressure and it's not going anywhere very quickly. This weather front is what's
00:55bringing the persistent rain across Scotland, but we're keeping a close eye on this next
00:59area of low pressure and weather fronts that moves its way across England and Wales as
01:04we go into Friday. More on that, though, in just a moment. But let's focus on what we've
01:08got through the rest of Thursday afternoon, because as well as the red warning, we've
01:12got further warnings out for rain and wind across the UK, particularly for Scotland through
01:17the rest of this afternoon. Rain and wind could see gusts of 70 to 80 miles an hour
01:21in some parts of Scotland, not just the coasts, but also over and just to the west of any
01:27higher ground. Further south, there will be some sunny spells at times, but with those
01:31we'll see some heavy thundery downpours breaking out through the afternoon, so could catch
01:35some quite lively downpours for central England and Wales as we head through the afternoon.
01:41Temperature wise, though, it's a mild one out there for the time of year, 18, possibly
01:4519 degrees where we see the sunshine, but much cooler and obviously feeling cold with
01:50that persistent rain and very strong wind. But as I say, it's as we head through Thursday
01:56evening that the rain really intensifies across eastern Scotland. The rain warning comes into
02:01force from 6pm. You can see from the colours of the rain that it really is heavy and remaining
02:07very persistent through the night. But then we turn our attention down across northern
02:11and eastern England because this next pulse of rain, those weather fronts I showed you
02:15just now, start feeding their way in. And you can see again the intensity of the rain
02:19here is likely to lead to some disruption as well. So a yellow warning has been issued
02:24for quite a wide area and an amber warning for later on Friday, which I'll show you in
02:29just a second. We'll also see some heavy rain pushing its way into Northern Ireland. The
02:33best of any drier weather overnight will be down towards the southwest, but still not
02:37immune from one or two showers. And temperature wise, it's a mild night across the board.
02:44So let's pick up on the picture through Friday morning. We've still got that red warning
02:47in force across eastern Scotland, but the attention turns further south because we'll
02:51see some very heavy persistent rain feeding its way in. And an amber warning comes into
02:56force through the day on Friday because of the nature of this rain. We could see up to
03:01100, 150 millimetres in places for the Pennines, Cumbria, eastern counties of England through
03:06Yorkshire into East Anglia. It's going to be quite a wet picture through the afternoon.
03:11The rain also pushes into Northern Ireland, so a yellow warning in force here. By this
03:15time, though, the rain does ease for eastern Scotland, so some welcome dry and brighter
03:19conditions feeding in here, but staying windy. And to the south, we'll have some sunny spells,
03:24but also once again, as with Thursday, some heavy downpours breaking out come the afternoon.
03:30Not quite as mild on Friday afternoon still, though, 16 or 17 in the south, some cooler
03:35air tucking into the north. As we pick up the picture through Friday evening, we continue
03:41to see this rain feeding its way in, and it stays with us as we go through Saturday
03:46because of this area of low pressure. Now, I've put the jet stream on here as well because
03:49you can see it's diving down across the Atlantic, and there's an area of high pressure over
03:54Scandinavia which is blocking that weather system, so it stays with us through the weekend.
03:59The rain intensity does ease, though, so through Saturday and Sunday, we do have some further
04:03warnings in place, but not for the amount of rain that we're going to see over the next
04:0724 hours. And of course, our warnings will continue to be updated as we get closer to
04:12the time, so stay tuned to the latest, and you can follow us across our social media
04:16channels. Take care, and I'll see you soon. Goodbye.