Thursday morning forecast 19/10/23
19 October – National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hello again. A red warning comes into effect today for eastern Scotland because of the
00:06exceptional amount of rain we're expecting over the next couple of days as a result of
00:10Storm Barbet. This is the area covered by the red warning and it's Aberdeenshire, parts
00:15of Angus where we're likely to see 100-150mm widely during Thursday and into Friday and
00:22in some places 200-250mm. That would be, in this part of the world, more than a month's
00:28worth of rainfall falling in just 24-48 hours and of course that would likely result in
00:35a very significant flood risk. River flooding, surface water flooding, transport disruption
00:41as well as danger to life as a result of fast flowing flood water. Communities could be
00:46cut off, could be power disruption as well. So if you live or work in this area, make
00:52sure you check before you travel and make sure that you take preparations now to protect
00:58yourselves and others. Now, Barbet has been moving up from the south, it's moving across
01:04central parts of the UK as we go into the start of Thursday. It comes up against high
01:09pressure over Scandinavia, that's why the isobars are tightening and we're seeing this
01:14unusual wind direction. They're south-easterly, much of our weather comes in from the west
01:18or south-west so it's western Scotland that typically sees the highest rainfall but it's
01:23eastern Scotland where we'll see persistent and heavy rainfall during the rest of the
01:27day and into Friday as well. So that rainfall turning heavier and more persistent through
01:32the morning. And you can see from the bright colours there, it's focused across parts of
01:36eastern Scotland, Caithness as well, and it's just going to remain in place for 24, 36,
01:4348 hours. Waxing and waning, yes, but it's going to stay horrendously wet. Now, it will
01:49brighten up after a wet start for Northern Ireland, parts of southern Scotland and for
01:53England and Wales, a mixture of sunny spells but also scattered heavy showers. A blustery
01:58day for many with some strong wind gusts but the strongest winds will develop across much
02:02of Scotland with the risk of 70 mph wind gusts around exposed coasts. Eastern Scotland seeing
02:07those wind gusts combined with large waves and all that rainfall could exacerbate the
02:12risk of flooding over the next couple of days because of blocked drains and culverts and
02:16so on. North West Scotland at risk of seeing 80 mph wind gusts as the wind bounces over
02:21the hills here. But it's a blustery day for many and that rainfall across Scotland certainly
02:28leading to some significant flooding issues over the next couple of days. 12 to 13 Celsius
02:33for Scotland, 18 Celsius further south across England and Wales, sunny spells and some humidity
02:39in the air as well. So it's not going to be cold in the south but it will be blustery
02:44and occasionally showery. Then into Friday night, the showers in the south die away for
02:48a time, still a lot of clouds, still quite a breeze. It stays very windy and very wet
02:53across Scotland, the far north of England and parts of Northern Ireland as well. But
02:58it is a mild night wherever you are because of course of all the weather occurring. Then
03:03into the start of Friday, it's again wet and windy for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern
03:08England as well but increasingly it turns wet and windy further south across central
03:13and eastern England. Some uncertainty about the westward extent of this area of rainfall
03:17but it's certainly going to be heavy across south-east England with the risk of 50 or
03:22even 75 millimetres of rainfall building up on Friday in places and that's a significant
03:26amount of rainfall for this part of the UK. It could cause further issues. Yellow rain
03:32warning in force here, yellow wind warning in force for eastern parts of the country
03:35with a gusty wind, 60 mph wind gusts coming in from the east and that rainfall continuing
03:41for eastern Scotland although it does finally relent later in the day. Brighter skies to
03:46the far north and north-west of Scotland, a few showers for Northern Ireland, West Wales
03:50and the south-west but the wettest weather always focused through the next few days in
03:55the east, especially for those parts of Scotland where we've got amber warnings and red warnings.
04:03Pay attention and make sure you follow the Met Office for all the latest updates with
04:07the forecasts and warnings in order to stay safe.
04:11Thanks for watching.