Wednesday afternoon forecast 18/10/23
18 October – National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00The Met Office have issued a red warning for parts of Angus and Aberdeenshire for later
00:06this week because of the risk that heavy and persistent rainfall will cause widespread
00:11and severe flooding. This is the area covered by the red warning. There are other yellow
00:17and amber warnings in force across much of Scotland and elsewhere across the UK. But
00:21it's in this area in particular where there is the risk during Thursday and Friday of
00:25150-200mm in places and as much as 250mm in some of the wetter spots. This would be
00:33a truly exceptional amount of rainfall for this part of Scotland and falling in just
00:38a couple of days would likely lead to widespread and severe flooding. So if you're in this
00:44area where there is currently a red warning in force, do take action now to protect yourselves
00:51and others. Now for the rest of Wednesday, it's dry for much of Scotland, northern and
00:57eastern England. It's outbreaks of rain across Wales and southern England, some heavy downpours
01:03as the rain moves up from the south circulating around an area of low pressure which the Met
01:07Office have named Storm Barbet because of those expected impacts to the north-east of
01:12the UK later this week. But for Wednesday itself, it's really the wet and windy weather
01:18is affecting southern and south-western parts with northern Ireland, Scotland, much of northern
01:23and eastern England seeing some brightness although a strengthening breeze. That's going
01:26to make it feel on the cold side I think towards the north and the north-east but this storm
01:32is bringing milder air with it so 15 or 16 Celsius still manageable despite the wet and
01:37windy conditions in the far south. Now the rain moves north overnight pushing into the
01:43Midlands, eventually northern England, northern Ireland as well where it will turn heavy and
01:46persistent and in northern Ireland by the middle part of Friday, we're expecting 30
01:52to 50 millimetres widely, perhaps a bit more over eastern hills and that could cause some
01:57disruption as well. But by the end of the night, the wettest weather is across northern
02:02England into southern Scotland, still staying clear of the north of Scotland although a
02:07strengthening wind here with some lively gusts by the end of the night and it's going to
02:11be breezy across the rest of the UK with cloud and outbreaks of rain continuing across the
02:16southern half of the country. All of that means that it's not going to be a cold night,
02:20temperature staying in the teens in the south, 10 or 11 Celsius further north but it is going
02:24to be an unpleasant start to Thursday and it's during Thursday that the weather really
02:29deteriorates across Scotland with the heavy and persistent rain moving north and the persistence
02:35of this strong southeasterly wind, an unusual direction for Scotland it has to be said,
02:41will lead to the persistence of heavy rainfall especially across eastern parts of Scotland
02:46and north east England. Further south across the rest of England and Wales, the rain replaced
02:51by sunny spells and scattered showers, these showers will be heavy and in some places fairly
02:57prolonged but for northern Ireland it does turn brighter and a little drier into the
03:02afternoon. Wherever you are, it's not going to be particularly pleasant because of the
03:07wind and the rain but temperatures a little above average for the time of year, we're
03:11looking at 18 or 19 in the south, 12 to 13 for Scotland with that wind strengthening
03:17through the day and the risk in places of 17 mph wind gusts. Amber warning for wind
03:22for eastern parts of Scotland, that wind driving the rain in, exacerbating the impacts from
03:28the wet weather and that rain really accumulating across eastern parts of Scotland in particular
03:34as well as north east England during Thursday and Friday. As I mentioned, more than 100
03:39mm, more than 150 mm widely as much as 2 to 250 mm in some of the wetter spots for
03:45Angus and Aberdeenshire and this shows Friday's weather as you can see the brighter colours
03:51remaining there across eastern Scotland, parts of north east England as well and that means
03:56that that rain will continue to build up during Friday and into the start of the weekend with
04:01the significant risk of river flooding. Meanwhile, another bout of wet weather potentially affecting
04:07central and south eastern parts of England, pushing into Wales and the south west by the
04:12end of Friday afternoon. So all in all a very wet period coming up, eastern Scotland not
04:18the only place affected by the risk of disruption from wet weather by the end of the week but
04:24that is the area where we're expecting the highest totals and the biggest impacts. Either
04:29way it's going to be very blustery on Friday, the brightest skies will be further west but
04:33even here there will be some heavy showers. So yes, if you're in the red affected area
04:38do take action now to protect yourselves and others and elsewhere stay up to date with
04:43Met Office forecasts and warnings.