Wednesday evening forecast 18/10/23
18 October – National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, the Met Office have issued a rare red warning for parts of eastern Scotland
00:05for Thursday and into Friday because of Storm Barbet and the exceptional rainfall we're
00:10expecting to come out of this system. Now, it's this area covered by the red warning,
00:16parts of Aberdeenshire and Angus, east-facing hills in particular, soaking up an awful lot
00:21of rainfall during Thursday and into Friday, 100-150mm widely and in some places 200-250mm.
00:29Not only is that unusual, it's fairly exceptional. Now, we typically see less than that in the
00:36whole month of October in this area and this is just in a couple of days. So, of course,
00:42we are warning about the risk of significant flooding, a danger to life, significant transport
00:48disruption. If you're in this area or if you work in this area, please do check conditions
00:52before you travel and make any preparations you need to make right now to keep yourselves
00:57and others safe from the risk of flooding. It's been dry through Wednesday for eastern
01:03Scotland but that's not going to last. The rain that we've seen across southern parts
01:06of the UK is moving north as Storm Barbet circulating around southern parts of the UK
01:13moves north and it's going to be a blustery night, it's going to be a wet night in places
01:16particularly Northern Ireland, into parts of Wales and Northern England. Showery rain
01:21returning to the south of the UK, staying dry to the north of the central belt for the
01:25time being, increasingly windy, however, and because of the wind and the cloud, of
01:30course, it's going to be a relatively mild night, 12 to 14 Celsius fairly widely, a little
01:35lower further north. But it gets off to a very unsettled start on Thursday with Storm
01:40Barbet moving north and we're going to see as that pushes up against a blocking area
01:46of high pressure over Scandinavia, tightening isobars and you can see how those isobars
01:51are tightly packed across Scotland, north-east England and this strong and in places gale
01:56for south-easterly wind will drive an awful lot of moisture in to the north-east of the
02:01UK and that's why with this unusual wind direction and the atmosphere loaded with moisture we're
02:07likely to see such exceptional rainfall totals building up during Thursday and into Friday
02:12and at times through the weekend as well across the north-east of the UK. So we start off
02:18Thursday with outbreaks of rain marching north and really it's by around rush hour
02:23across eastern Scotland that that rain really sets in and you can see those brighter colours
02:27just hanging around through the day across Caithness, yes, but also Aberdeenshire, Angus
02:33as well and it's just going to be increasingly wet in these areas generally to the north
02:39of the central belt. There will be outbreaks of rain further south as well, more of a showery
02:44nature, certainly sunshine and scattered showers across much of England and Wales, some heavy
02:48downpours in places but interspersed by sunny spells drying up and brightening up for Northern
02:52Ireland through the day but it gets off to a wet start here. And it's going to be a relatively
02:58mild day in the south, Balbet is bringing some of this warmth up from the south and
03:03some humidity as well, so 18 Celsius but it's going to feel cold as that wind strengthens
03:10across Scotland. There is an amber warning for wind in Scotland, 70 to 80 mph wind gusts
03:16in some of the more exposed parts of northwest Scotland, 70 mph wind gusts driving into the
03:21east coast as well and that's going to exacerbate the impacts from the rain of course because
03:25it's going to push debris into drains and block culverts and so on and so increasing
03:31that risk of flooding. The wind and the rain combined causing significant impacts through
03:36the night and into the start of Friday. Friday then starts off with wet and windy weather
03:42across much of Scotland, the far north of England as well, some showers for Northern
03:46Ireland, drier further south for a time having seen those showers ease but another spell
03:51of wet weather pushes up into the south-east of England, a little bit of uncertainty at
03:54the moment about the extent and the westward push of this rainfall but could be some very
03:59wet weather developing across south-east England in particular on Friday, perhaps 50 or more
04:04millimetres of rainfall and an increasing wind across eastern parts of the UK with the
04:10risk of 60 mph wind gusts in parts of eastern England into eastern Scotland as well. The
04:16rain continues across eastern Scotland but it eventually eases, still an amber warning
04:22in force there and certainly a very unsettled end to the week across many parts although
04:27it will be brighter for western Scotland and Northern Ireland with some showers here but
04:31the main cause for concern, that red warning area, eastern Scotland, risk of very significant
04:37flooding over the next few days, stay up to date with forecasts and warnings right here.