Friday evening forecast 06/10/23
06 October - National weather forecast presented by Clare Nasir.
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00:00This weekend's weather is bittersweet to be honest. We have fine conditions with
00:06temperatures well above average across much of England and Wales. Northern
00:10Ireland drying up. However for Scotland we're looking at a significant rainfall
00:16event with multiple impacts and even a danger to life. Let's pick up on that
00:20weather warning. You can see a broad yellow warning into the early hours of
00:24Saturday morning and this amber warning where over the hills we could see up to
00:28180 millimetres of rain, widely around 100 millimetres of rain. So that means
00:33significant risk of flooding, that's river flooding, surface water flooding, so
00:38damage to properties and also impacts on the roads as well as the rails. And that
00:44continues into the early hours of Sunday morning. Now let's backtrack to Friday
00:49evening. You can see fine conditions across much of Wales, the Midlands, East
00:54Anglia, central southern England, drier skies up towards Yorkshire through the
00:58night. A bit of patchy rain across the north as well as the west of Scotland
01:02but it's this band of rain here affecting Northern Ireland. We'll see
01:05some rain across Pennine districts as well but notice these bright echoes
01:09representing some intense and persistent bursts of rain coming in all the way
01:14from the Atlantic and all of this rain here is pushing towards Scotland through
01:19Saturday morning. Towards the north it's a cold wind, some clear skies, a few
01:25showers but a very wet start to the day. Anywhere from the central belt of
01:30Scotland could even see some rain further south all the way up towards the
01:34far north there. Now through the early hours of the morning temperatures
01:39holding across England and Wales it's a mild start to the day. The air here is
01:43relatively tropical, well subtropical indeed, and what that means it's going to
01:48feel warm with some sunshine. More clouds coming in through the morning
01:52across West Wales, the West Country, central southern England perhaps seeing
01:55some patchy clouds and certainly a cloudier start for the day across
01:59Northern Ireland as well as northern counts of England and even a bit
02:02drizzly over Pennine districts. I'll get to the rain in a moment across Scotland
02:06but further south you'll notice the clouds will break through the morning. So
02:10through the morning we'll see some sunny skies, still rather breezy across Irish
02:14sea coasts and a bit of a breeze coming through across much of England as well
02:18but some sunshine through the morning and into the afternoon it turns very
02:22warm. Temperatures well above average for this time of year. Now for Northern
02:26Ireland cloudier skies but certainly some hazy sunshine from time to time and
02:30it does dry up across much of northern England as well even the far south of
02:35Scotland. Across the far north of Scotland a relentless wind here feeling
02:39cool and this band of rain certainly giving some high rainfall totals and
02:44it's going to feel very cool under the rain band 11 or 12 degrees Celsius but
02:48we're going to reach 22 across mid Wales, 23 for the southeast of England, 19 for
02:53Northern Ireland but single figures across Shetland. So that's the picture
02:57across England and Wales and Northern Ireland on Saturday. Let's now have a
03:00look and see what's happening across Scotland through the early hours of
03:03Saturday morning because it really is a wet one and as I said there's a risk to
03:09life. We have an amber warning covering the central zone of Scotland with some
03:14very high rainfall totals and the risk of fairly widespread flooding. So let's
03:19take a look at the details through the morning on Saturday. Here's that rain
03:24cold in the north but some clear skies perhaps one or two showers. Border region
03:29south-eastern Galloway seeing some patchy rain but it's really this zone
03:32here and all this rain is pushing towards the east. So the highest rainfall
03:37totals, the most intense bursts of rain which will continue right the way
03:41through the day on Saturday across much of the central belt, certainly the west
03:46central belt, up across the Trussach, Stirlingshire, Perthshire towards Fort
03:51William just clipping the the western side as well but even further east the
03:56the wind will be quite keen and also we'll see a lot of rain. It dries up
04:01across the Western Isles through the afternoon with some sunshine coming
04:04through but quite a breeze up here but some brighter skies to end the day but
04:09the rain just keeps on falling through Saturday afternoon and evening time
04:13across much of Scotland. Now towards the north you'll see some clearer skies into
04:18Saturday night. It's turning cold for Shetland and the air remains relatively
04:22mild across England and Wales. We could even see some mist and fog patches with
04:27a lighter breeze here. The rain may sink down towards the far north of England
04:32through into the early hours of Saturday night, Sunday morning should I say, as it
04:37pushes slowly northwards as we enter Sunday daytime. So here's that rain, the
04:43Outer Hebrides, seeing some extending across Caithness, Sutherland, Invernessshire
04:47always covering much of Perthshire, Aberdeenshire, so a lot of the rivers
04:52will become swollen, they'll become flooded, in particular the River Spey, the
04:56River Tay as well, temperatures struggling here though. Further south you
05:00can see 11 to 13 degrees Celsius. So a lot of issues in regards to rain through
05:08the weekend but notice on Sunday slowly this rain pushes northwards, so you'll
05:15see some across Caithness, it will remain wet across the Western Isles as well as
05:19Sutherland. The far north east of Scotland continues to see the rain but
05:22it slowly dries up from the south. So despite the fact on Sunday we could see
05:27a rather cloudy start, there will be some holes in the cloud allowing for
05:31some sunshine, the air remains warm, in fact temperatures could be higher across
05:34England and Wales. Northern Ireland seeing a better day as well with some
05:37sunshine coming through. The cloud may be a bit stubborn across the spine of
05:41England but certainly eventually the clouds will break through the afternoon
05:45and even places such as Inverness should see some higher temperatures and
05:50some dry weather as the rain becomes confined to the far north of Scotland. In
05:55the south though we could see a 19 to 25 degrees Celsius and a dry day all round
05:59on Monday, bright skies in the north, sunshine in the south, temperatures
06:04rising to 19 to 24 degrees Celsius. So another warm day on the cards, a settled
06:09day with a light breeze. Stay tuned to the forecast, stay up to date with all
06:14the warnings across Scotland and we'll keep you posted here on all our social
06:18media channels and also on our website.
06:24you