Friday afternoon forecast 06/10/23
06 October - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, we have talked a lot about the upcoming warm weekend in many parts of the UK but we
00:06are now increasingly concerned about the rain in Scotland, especially through Saturday and
00:11the first part of Sunday. More on that in a moment, however for the time being there
00:16are some concerns about the rain across parts of Lancashire, yellow warning enforced. We've
00:20had some wet weather here in the last day or so and another 20-30mm through the rest
00:25of Friday could cause some issues. It's also going to be damp across parts of Northern
00:28Ireland into South West Scotland, parts of the North of Scotland as well but for the
00:32far North a cold wind, brighter skies but a few light showers. The brightest skies though
00:38will be across parts of the Midlands, East Anglia, Southern England, South East Wales.
00:43Warm here with temperatures reaching 22C. And the warm air coming up from the South
00:50will continue to build into the weekend, however that's coming up against cold air coming down
00:54from the North in between a warm front which intensifies as that temperature contrast sharpens
01:01and it's that intensification of the weather front, the fact that it lingers for 36 hours
01:07or so across central parts of Scotland, trapped between two areas of high pressure and the
01:14fact that we've got relatively humid air drawn up from the subtropics to add even more moisture
01:21and that moisture being wrung out over the hills of Western Scotland in particular. All
01:25the ingredients there for a really significant rain event across parts of Scotland and the
01:32trouble starts through Friday evening. The rain turns heavier, the brighter colours there
01:36emerging across central and Western Scotland and as you can see those brighter colours
01:41indicating heavy rain just become more and more widespread during the early hours of
01:46Saturday. Now the rain across Northern England and Northern Ireland actually eases through
01:52the night, turns drier here. We'll see some clear spells further south with light winds,
01:56some mist and fog patches forming for southern parts of the UK, some low cloud especially
02:01across parts of West Wales, South West England. That will tend to lift during Saturday morning,
02:06brighter skies emerging although some patchy cloud remaining across parts of West Wales,
02:10the South and South West of England. Also some cloudier conditions, a few spots of rain
02:14for the north of England and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, brighter skies for the north of
02:19Scotland with a few light showers here but it's really in between where we're going to
02:24see that heavy and persistent rain just continuing throughout Saturday and where we've got that
02:30heavy rain falling of course it's going to feel unpleasant, 9 or 10 or 11 Celsius under
02:34the rainfall. Colder air as well for the north of Scotland, the Northern Isles in particular
02:39seeing temperatures of 9 degrees with a brisk wind, stark contrast to conditions further
02:44south where we've got plenty of sunny spells developing after any early mist burns away
02:49and 22, 23 Celsius possible. But real concerns across parts of Scotland as we head into the
02:57weekend. In this yellow warning area which covers much of central to northern Scotland,
03:0350 to 75 millimetres of rain possible, 100 to 120 millimetres over hills and in the amber
03:09warning areas so for the South West Highlands, for the Trossachs, for Stirling, for Glasgow,
03:14a risk of 100 millimetres widely and 180 millimetres for some and even for the wetter parts of
03:21Western Scotland. These are truly significant rain totals and so there is the risk of very
03:27significant impacts from serious flooding from rivers, dangerous conditions, risks to
03:34life and as a result really if you're in that part of the world, stay across all forecasts
03:40and warnings updates as we head into the weekend. Now the rain does continue for a time into
03:45Saturday evening, eventually the heavier rain begins to subside. Northern Ireland, largely
03:52dry, the clearest skies will be across the Midlands, East Anglia, Southern England, a
03:56few mist and fog patches forming once again overnight. We keep the light showers going
04:00in the far north of Scotland but finally as we begin Sunday, the rain is pushing north.
04:05It's going to end up being a wet day in fact for northern Scotland but nothing of too much
04:11concern, certainly less heavy and less persistent compared with further south on Saturday and
04:17it is drying up then across central and southern Scotland, a lot of cloud remaining but the
04:21warmer air in the south is pushing north so what a contrast in temperatures for Sunday,
04:26mid-teens more likely across central and southern Scotland, 19 for northern Ireland and northern
04:31England and for much of the southern half of the UK, we're into the 20s, could even
04:37see a 25 Celsius in south-east England after any early mist burns away. Still some patchy
04:43cloud remaining but largely dry, bright and warm. So a tale of two halves this weekend
04:49really, we've got the dry and bright and warm weather for many parts of the UK but in Scotland
04:55there is that real concern of significant flooding. Stay across forecasts and warnings
05:00if that could affect you.